On March 19th, 2022, a swarm of earthquakes began underneath the island of Sao Jorge and
its volcano in the Portuguese Azores Island chain.
Over the next 96 hours, more than 1800 earthquakes occurred, 104 of which were large enough to
be felt by the local populace.
These quakes mainly occurred on the west central portion of the island, which just happens
to be the site of the island's historical volcanic eruptions.
Then, on March 23rd, satellite and local sensors recorded the uplift of ground on the island.
While this area of uplifted land could theoretically represent fault movement from ongoing earthquakes,
they most likely indicate that an intrusion of magma is ongoing.
As the magma travels shallower into the crust, it pushes up overlying soil in a manner similar
to a mole digging a hole in a grass yard.
This uplift did not exist on a previous European Space Agency satellite dataset taken on the
15th of March, and therefor represents new activity.
As a result of this latest development, Sao Jorge's volcano alert level was raised from
2 to 4, which roughly translates to a color code of orange.
Authorities in a press conference Wednesday stated that they had already evacuated patients
from a regional hospital, and that they are preparing to evacuate the elderly and those
with mobility issues.
While the uplift is centered at two locations; one to the west of Manadas on the southern
shoreline and a second spot 2300 meters west of Norte Grande, these sites do not necessarily
represent where an eruption will occur.
Magma often takes a path towards the surface which isn't perfectly vertical and may very
well end up erupting closer to the site of prior eruptions in 1580 and 1808.
Two spots the authorities are keeping an eye on are labeled on screen which have been defined
as possible sites for a volcanic eruption to occur.
These sites each represent areas where a primary cluster of earthquakes have occurred, meaning
that an eruption very well could begin just above the city of Velas.
Although the situation is rapidly evolving, it currently appears that magma is at a depth
of between 6 and 12 kilometers.
However, an eruption on land is still not a certainty, despite the raised alert level.
An important thing to note is that many of the island's settlements are built on small
flat coastal fans.
These fans are called "fajans" and either represent lava deltas formed when flows of
molten rock reached the ocean or landslide deposits from large earthquakes.
Prior earthquake swarms that resulted in submarine volcanic eruptions in 1757 and 1964 several
kilometers off the coast of Velas were associated with damaging earthquakes of magnitude 6 to
7 that triggered devastating landslides.
Areas built on top of landslide deposits are thus more likely be the site of future landslides,
and with the ongoing situation another very large earthquake is quite possible.
As a result, CIVISA has issued a recommendation that people evacuate if they live on one of
those low-lying areas.
If the situation continues to get worse, than mandatory evacuations will be issued, although
they have not been ordered as of yet.
If you live on the island, please grab your phone right now.
Go around your house, workplace, or place of residence slowly room to room, recording
the walls, ceiling, floor, furniture, and any valuable items and appliances.
This footage will be useful in case your house is damaged or destroyed by subsequent events
so you can properly make an insurance claim.
Even if you do not have insurance, there is a good chance that the government may partially
reimburse you if something destructive occurs.
Once you do that, create a kit of essentials with a face mask, medication, and a backpack
of valuables and relevant supplies.
The purpose of this kit is to be able to leave your house in as little as 5 minutes if an
evacuation order was given.
If an eruption does occur, stay at least 3 kilometers away from any active vent.
This volcano has killed in the past through pyroclastic flows which rushed downslope at
several hundred kilometers per hour.
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