just like clockwork a CNBC has brought this guy Craig Irwin who is quickly becoming one of my
favorite guests at this point he might actually be rivaling one of my personal favorites which is
Gordon Johnson and it's because he has that same inability to defend his own position he's going
to put forth a position and he's going to say okay this is what it is but he will not he absolutely
refuses to defend his position with logic let's listen in Craig you have an 85 dollar price Target
I mean you guys are looking at you're looking at the same thing Craig when Craig you had a hold
too when did you put that 85 on there did you it was in 2000 what what when did you put it on it's
been on for like a year and a half two years right now I don't remember exactly when I put it on your
privates are in a vice and this is fantastic this dude is saying hey I've had the same Tesla price
target for a year and a half two years we can uh verify that it actually has been two years
um we're gonna get to all of this in a second but if we look right here it was two years ago so
he's had the same Tesla price target for two years despite absolutely massive growth and development
and new factories and everything that's been going on in Tesla in the last two years he's still
saying yeah no I'm gonna hold that price Target at like 80 or 85. before we fully hear him out I just
want to check in who is this guy now if you've watched this channel before we have covered him in
the past because he shows up on CNBC so often but as many name is Craig Irwin and let's just look up
what are his past stock trades what is his ranking as an analyst and right here if we go to Wall
Street Zen we can see oh no he is in the bottom six percent of analysts he is actually ranked
4029 out of 4269. so yes he is a very low ranking in the analyst does that mean he's a bad analyst
um buy the metrics yeah it does mean he's a bad analyst he is an average return of about
12 percent so if you're investing with him you're gonna have a bad time and he is a win rate of 29
um that is painful which puts his risk versus reward at as poor as you can get according to
again Wall Street Zen now that all looks bad on its face but maybe he's a specialist where yeah
maybe all of his ratings for most companies are bad but he has one company that he's really good
at and maybe that companies Tesla let's look into if that is true well here we have Craig Irwin's
five best and worst ratings and these are just the worst ones and we can see Tesla Inc is his number
one worst rating that he has ever given in his career now that doesn't mean he doesn't give good
rating sometimes but what that does mean is that when it comes to raiding Tesla he has never been
worse at rating a different company than he has at rating Tesla so would I personally look to him as
a Tesla expert who sees the company for what it is and is a Visionary and knows what's going on and
can value the company appropriately well by his own history at negative 133 percent loss no this
guy does not know what he's talking about with regards to Tesla at least not historically this
is not me dogging on the guy I'm sure he's a great guy I'm not trying to say anything personally is
wrong with him it's just to say when it comes to listening to him as an analyst in what he's saying
about Tesla he has a historical terrible rating okay okay we had to get that out of the way now
let's hear what he has to say on cnbs I mean CNBC man crazy aren't you howling in pain huh no man
no right the point the point today is price Cuts work right there's demand for EVS out there EVS
are something compelling to a tranche of consumers EVS are inevitable right that is the punch line
today but when you step back and you say this six percent move is a 50 billion dollar increase to
the market cap and you look at the market cap of four today at just 60 billion that puts it
very clearly in context Tesla has more than 100 other uh competing EV models come into Market
um to compete against their their four Mainline Mainline units you know many of those are going
to be wildly successful the same pressure we saw in the back end of last year that brought this
thing basically down to 100 is going to build into the end of this year when those models actually
launch and it's going to intensify next year so okay so what he seems to be saying is the tried
and true adage that we've heard a million times the competition is coming he says all right there
there's 100 plus models coming out this year there have been a bunch of models coming out before
and that's what caused Tesla to have to lower their prices and so all of these models all this
increased competition means Tesla's not going to be able to keep up they're going to have to either
continue dropping their prices in order to keep sales or they're going to lose sales and it kind
of sounds okay on its face until you think about a couple things the first one is that analysts and
people in general have been saying the competition is coming for Tesla since I remember seeing it
back in 2016 where they were saying oh Tesla's about to get knocked out of the market because
now Chevy and GM and Ford and everyone's entering the market and that they've been repeatedly saying
that every single year in fact I actually made a compilation video where it was all the analysts
starting back I think I started back in like 2015 people saying the competition is coming
for Tesla and they're about to get knocked out they're only able to play because none of the
big players are in the market and I had that fast forwarded all the way up until today where each
a year they're just saying oh the competition is really coming out this year strong and while
it looks pretty funny to look back five years ago and to see like oh the competition clearly
wasn't coming for Tesla that's just what people were saying that's just as true today as it was
five years ago the competition is still nowhere near where Tesla's at but then let's look at the
second part and this is the part that I think is actually really important he's saying okay
the competition is coming let's look at Tesla's sales at least in the U.S okay and this is the
graph that I was looking for because it's also on CNBC it's this graph right here where it says USV
market share for the first half of 2023 and what we can see here is that Tesla is making up 60 of
EV sales in the US in the for the first half of 2023 then you have Hyundai and Kia which are a
conglomerate at 6.9 GM at 6.5 Volkswagen at five and Ford at just a little less than five so what
that tells us is that if you were to combine ever every single other EV competitor in the US every
single other company selling EVs and total all of them together Tesla is still selling more EVS
than everyone else combined so does that sound like a company that the competition is coming
for not according to their sales and also keep in mind this is the same guy where back just a few
days ago that was right before the Q2 results for Tesla came out he was saying that Tesla is going
to miss their deliveries in large part because the competition is coming now I don't know if
you saw Tesla's Q2 results but not only did they not miss their deliveries they actually beat them
by I think it was about four percent so they beat analyst estimates by about four percent they over
delivered and they over produced and this is all despite the competition coming and being here so
no this guy is just wrong let's hear what else he's wrong about it's absurd it's egregiously
overvalued but I get it it's a consensus long it's a company that's executing that's why I
don't have a cell rating I have a neutral rating because I got a lot of laborers to throw Craig
you got an 85 price Target how can you have a I mean that's you should it's a 277 that should be
a seller nothing about what you're saying makes sense Craig and and I mean okay what he said
right there makes absolutely no sense what he's saying is I have a Tesla price target of like 85
and Tesla is currently being traded at around 270 dollars and yet I have a neutral or hold rating
think about the logic here we're saying this guy is saying I think Tesla should be valued
at 85 dollars Tesla is currently valued at two hundred and seventy dollars but I don't think you
should sell I think you should hold in what world does that make sense if you think Tesla should be
valued at 85 why would you not sell if they're at 270 some odd dollars that makes no sense at all
and I love that the that the host here just said hey what you're saying makes no sense because the
truth is it does make no sense and it actually reminds me of an experience I had right out of
college which is that I got a job as a data analyst and regularly in that job it was for
a huge corporation and regularly I would have to go and do some digging and then I would present
my findings to my boss and some other people in the company and as much as it pains me to admit
it there were a non-zero amount of times where I went through dug through the data and I found
what I thought was the truth or what was going on and then while I'm present it to the people that
need to know I realize oh [ __ ] I got this wrong this is this is not right and there was one time I
remember it was the first time where I did it and there was kind of a moment where I stopped because
I was like oh this is wrong what I'm saying is wrong and your brain has to take a second
to compute that what you're saying is like there's no way that it's correct and I remember looking at
my boss and she knew and I knew and immediately I was like I'm sorry I came to the wrong conclusion
it get while I'm presenting it I'm coming I came to the wrong conclusion here's what I actually
think and my boss after that fact after that meeting she pulled me aside and she was like
Hey way to be for correcting yourself I know it's embarrassing and blah blah and she gave me this
huge pat on the back but I think that that concept is true which is that you only want to be wrong
for as little time as you have to be wrong you're gonna be wrong sometimes that's just part of being
a human you will get things wrong but as soon as you realize you're wrong that's your that's your
opportunity Unity that's your best opportunity to say oops I'm wrong here and change whatever your
mind is there's not some like Glory or honor or I don't even know what this guy's going for there's
not something in dying on your high horse and being like I'm wrong I know I'm wrong but I'm
going to keep going with this even though I know it's wrong it just feels silly and what this guy
is saying is I have a price target of Tesla for 85. they're currently valued at 275 but I'm going
to put them at a hold and I'm going to leave on this rating it makes no sense it's wrong on every
aspect that you could even think about it but he's staying in being totally wrong and I love
that the interviewer was like dude you're off I don't know what you're going for here and he kind
of holds him to the fire a little bit anyways the guest on this interview actually has some
good insights at the very end so let's listen to what he has to say and with a 9 500 profit
margin to play with versus GM at 2100 versus Hyundai at a thousand or Ford at negative 760
dollars per vehicle they're taking market share and they're taking taking market cap all right so
what he said right there is actually huge let's scroll down I wrote it down he said here are the
margins right here the oh that's the wrong thing here are the profit margins he said Tesla has a
9 500 profit margin this is per vehicle GM has a 2100 so that's about five times Well between four
and five times lower than Tesla uh Hyundai has a one thousand dollar profit margin and Ford looks
like I missed a zero there but Ford is at 760. negative 760 profit margins so if these are what
the profit margins are and Craig Irwin the famous Tesla bear is saying Tesla can't lower the price
the only reason they're getting market share is because they're lowering the price everyone else
the competition is coming and they're going to get their lunches eaten then you look at
this and you see hey Tesla lowers their prices Ford lowered the price of the Maki to compete
with the new lower priced model y as we can see right here does Ford have the profit margins to
do that at a cost competitive basic basis no not even close they're losing money on every
Mach e sold they can't keep lowering their prices to compete with Tesla Tesla on the other hand has
a huge profit margins relative to the rest of the industry so they have a ton of leeway on how much
they can change prices to affect their sales and their demand no one else is in this position and
I guarantee you everyone else in the automotive industry wants to be in this position no one wants
lower profit margins but you have Tesla coming in at nearly 10 grand per vehicle that is just
nutty that's something you have not seen in the automotive industry but and I don't think we can
drive this point home enough this guy Craig Irwin can look at these profit margins and say you know
what Tesla's the one in trouble here Tesla's the one who's going to have their stock value plummet
by like 300 percent or something silly like that Tesla is the one in trouble no so all I gotta say
from all of us Tesla investors to Craig Irwin thank you for keeping the stock price artificially
lower so we can keep loading up on Tesla stock all right we're gonna leave things there thank
you to my patreon supporters for allowing me to keep making videos like this without them
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thing then let me know all right that's gonna do it for this video see you guys the next one peace