all right welcome to coffee with Marcus
and mark the number one stock market
show on Spotify and one of the most
popular Market updates on YouTube in
this show we talk about what's happening
in the markets and how we're trading
them today is Friday July 7th stock
struggle looking to end the week with
losses today's jobs report catches
Traders off guard average hourly
earnings support a Fed hike Levi Strauss
gets hammered Alibaba Soares plus we'll
review the oil and gas stocks that we
considered And Trades that we placed
yesterday as you can see there's a lot
to talk about so let's go ahead and get
started if this is your first time here
my name is Mark Hodge I'm head coach at
Rockwell trading I'm running the show
solo today but on most days I'm joined
by Rockwell trading's founder Marcus
Height cutter now even though I'm alone
I promise that you're in good hands you
could say we have a ton of trading
experience here at Rockwell trading
decades in fact we know our stuff and
we're not afraid to tell it like it is
so if you're looking for some honest
insight into the world of trading then
you are at the right place now before we
dive in and show you our trades and how
we're tackling these crazy markets let's
take a look at what's moving the markets
today let's go ahead and bring up the S
P 500 and you see here that with a short
holiday week we are setting up to end
the week negative so this was Friday's
day where we made highs for the year
Monday slightly higher with the short
holiday session markets closing early
Tuesday markets were closed Wednesday
slightly lower and yesterday a bit of a
sell-off Down point eight percent but we
recovered well off of session lows let's
go ahead and look at a five minute chart
here you see that we gapped down
yesterday uh continued to sell off after
the lower start and then right right
before lunch we started to rebound got
back to the open and finished right
around where we opened the day but still
down point seven percent for the s p we
could take a look at the Dow the Dow uh
similar move although the Dow couldn't
get back up to the opening of the day
but recovering midday and kind of going
sideways after that Rocky uh first five
minute start the NASDAQ A Little Bit
Stronger on the rebound here uh if we
look at a daily chart though the S and
or the NASDAQ excuse me finishing the
day point eight percent lower the Dow
point or 1.1 percent lower so that that
was the weakest of the bunch and the s p
point eight percent lower just like the
NASDAQ so a bit of a down day although
it could have been worse
um it definitely looked like we were
getting into some uh serious selling or
at least compared to what we've seen
recently uh the vix spiked yesterday if
we take a look at the vix down today but
this Vic Spike had us at levels that we
hadn't seen uh since the very beginning
of Jim uh today down on eliminating the
the pop here that we had yesterday with
that sell-off
um but overall now looking at today's
session a little bit mixed even though
we started the day lower so the s p
opened with a loss right now up to
points uh just uh not even point one
percent higher the Dow also opened with
a loss Dow still negative for the
session down just 33 points the NASDAQ
also opened the day with a loss now up a
quarter percent right now not a whole
lot of movement here now the last two
days and really this week has been all
about jobs so quiet week overall except
for yesterday not a lot of volatility
except for yesterday's drop and if we
look at the economic calendar here
we see that really the the surprise came
yesterday with that ADP non-farm
Employment Number uh and double the
expected jobs for the private sector so
this was a huge surprise catching
Traders off guard uh and that really
spurred the sell-off that took place
yesterday a little bit of a recovery and
rebound towards the end maybe Traders
thinking okay maybe this is a buying
opportunity let's buy the dip because it
was a decent drop and we knew going into
today's session that today was the the
real biggie when it came to job so even
though private numbers were much higher
than expected
um unemployment claims came in as
expected jolt's job openings a little
bit lower than expected today was really
the jobs focus and this was interesting
it was a bit mixed here so the three key
items in the jobs report average hourly
earnings non-farm employment numbers and
the unemployment rate so here we see
that average hourly earnings up 0.4
percent so this is where we were last
month the same increase and a tick
higher than Traders act actually
expected uh non-farm employment numbers
actually came in lower than expected
with 209 000 jobs
um added so you know this is where we
kind of have a mixed bag because on on
one hand the employment numbers nowhere
near what we had in the private sector
and this is a more significant report
right so Traders tend to put a little
more emphasis on focus on this report
and 209 000 jobs added was actually the
smallest increase since December of
2020. so you look at this part of the
report and it looks like okay maybe the
Fed
can be less aggressive with rate hex
because maybe the the job market just
isn't as as strong or or maybe there's a
new trend where it's starting to weaken
uh the unemployment rate came down to
3.6 so that ticked lower from 3.7
percent but this non-farm number is is
really the the main focus however the
FED is definitely keeping an eye on
average hourly earnings and this is
something that the FED does not want to
see the FED wants to see average hourly
earnings coming down uh rather than
staying strong or increasing so this
coming in higher than expected not
necessarily a good thing so mixed
overall and if we look at the CME fed
watch tool we see that we're still well
let me refresh this because the
probability of a rate hike at the next
meeting well now it's back at 94.9
percent uh earlier uh this came down to
92 percent which was not a significant
change right uh 92 94 that's basically
saying Traders are almost certain that
there's going to be a hike at the next
meeting at least based on probabilities
and we know that the FED is basically
said hey this is what you can expect
anyway unless there's a significant
change in in data supports a different
uh move there but this came down a
little bit popped tire so it does seem
like Traders
are taking that information uh in spite
of the lower uh jobs uh added the 209
000 added looking at average hourly
earnings and uh the unemployment rate
ticking lower and saying you know what
the the fed's still going to do uh hike
in uh July after July meeting uh that
will be in 19 days two hours 51 minutes
and 48 seconds so the countdown is real
and uh we'll see what the FED does
looking at Future probabilities we see
that Traders still bet that the FED will
raise one more time and then we'll stay
put so staying put and potentially
seeing a decrease uh in May interesting
here that not only is the probability
showing a decrease in May but we've
shifted to maybe even a half Point
decrease right so in March maybe a
quarter Point decrease right now the the
highest probabilities that will stay put
maybe a quarter point decrease and then
in May uh if there's a quarter point
decrease here it'd be just another
quarter point uh potentially although
the the highest probabilities that we'll
just see a quarter and be at the 500 or
or five five and a quarter range here uh
in May so hey uh we'll see there's some
more data to digest but right now
Traders saying the fed's going to raise
rates and Traders kind of shaking off
that uh private payrolls number and
focusing more on today's jobs report
right now uh really kind of quiet and
mixed as we get into the trading session
and approach the weekend now let's take
a look at some Market Movers here and
let's let's first look at the heat map
see what's going on overall
so in power x Optimizer pulling up the
heat map and we see that everything's
really kind of mixed here so some green
some red the biggies here apples down
Microsoft's down Google's barely higher
nvidia's up nicely meta barely higher
Amazon up a little bit Tesla up a little
bit uh and then we look at Healthcare
getting hit so Healthcare in the red
today consumer defensive like Walmart
Pepsi Coca-Cola Proctor gamble uh
getting hit so just kind of all over the
place and and so there isn't really any
leadership or isn't any uh overall
weakness except for maybe Health Care uh
as we go into the weekend uh and there
are some individual movers let's look at
Levi Strauss here so
Levi
beat expectations on earnings but their
revenue looks like it came in a little
bit just a shy uh a tad weaker than
expected uh they also cut their profit
outlook for the year and that's what's
really driving this move lower uh they
said that they expect adjusted earnings
per share to be a dollar ten rather than
a dollar twenty for the year
um this was down from a buck 30 to a
buck 40. I'm sorry 110 to 120 uh versus
the 13140 previously uh suggested or
targeted
so
yeah down a little bit get near some
support here
yeah I'm just curious what this looks
like on uh powerx optimizer
let's pull it up
Levi
let this update oops
there we go
okay maybe they maybe they trade uh
monthly options
potentially
we prefer to trade weekly options when
we're doing the wheel yeah they they
trade uh they do monthlies uh so
not something that that I'd be
interested I was just curious uh what
this looked like uh since I didn't see
it pop up on the scanner but since we
prefer to trade weeklies with the wheel
we have a little more flexibility
collecting premium making adjustments uh
selling higher strikes or lower strikes
depending on what's going on in the
market rather than being stuck uh with
monthly so that's why we see this no
options found because the symbol does
not have weekly options and there's a
few other reasons why we might not have
a suggestion uh the monthly options
being the case here uh let's also look
at baba baba on the Move uh doing the
opposite of Levi b-a-b-a Alibaba the
company
uh up 6.4 percent uh not quite sure
if their AI tool is driving this move
higher or the ant group
um being fined is uh driving the move
higher so essentially they add a jump
after a Reuters report uh that said the
company's affiliate ant group faces a
1.1 billion dollar fine by Chinese
authorities that doesn't sound like a
good thing but it suggested that it
could lead the way uh to uh potentially
going public at some point so maybe
Traders are liking that uh but they also
launched its AI tool I am not even going
to attempt to uh name the tool that
would be an embarrassment although most
of the time I I can uh I'm okay with uh
well anyway let's just say that they
launched their AI tool that's probably
what's driving this higher uh up 6.5
today so a little bit of a jump here in
Baba uh interesting move there now let's
talk about some trades that we
considered yes yesterday and we went
ahead and looked at five different
stocks let's first look at Devon energy
dvn so yesterday with that sell-off
taking place there were a few different
stocks that we were considering uh Devin
was one uh there was also MPC Marathon
petroleum
MPC and then we had
oxy
and we had
mro
Marathon Oil
and we had Sun Core
so
we looked at those five trades I said
that Marcus took one I took another
there was one I didn't like and the
other two I thought were decent right
and I asked you what do you think did
you take any of these trades uh was
there one that you like better than
another what did you think that I took
what did you think Marcus took and what
did you think was a trade that I didn't
like let's first look at the one that I
didn't like let's look at MPC here
Marathon petroleum now if we look at the
fundamentals they have a 2.65 div yield
so they paid dividend right now not
covering inflation but hey uh for
compared to many companies 2.65 is
better than nothing and better than most
uh a really really low p e ratio 3.61 if
we look at the income statement uh
positive net income for five years
except for 2020 and again oil and gas
gets a pass in 2020 because of the uh
craziness in the pandemic and then last
five quarters positive so overall all
fundamentals look decent now yesterday
with the drop a lower strike was
definitely possible but when I'm looking
at possible support here I think that
our support indicator and powerx
Optimizer does a really good job of
visualizing where support could be right
maybe about 105 105 107. here we have
this pullback taking place here here we
see that it starts to find support goes
sideways and this is right between 105
107. so I think you could meet make a
case to to sell a put around here
because that's that's our goal with the
wheel strategy there's really two things
that we need to address in order to put
on a trade so we're not just premium
hungry trading willing to trade anything
just because the premium is good we want
it to be a stock that we're willing to
own and B uh a price that we want to own
the stock at what we would like to see
is that we can sell outputs near support
because if there is a drop and we do get
assigned then if support holds we're
just going to have a lot of fun selling
calls but even if we break through
support there's a tendency for the stock
to drift back to support what was
support becomes resistance right and if
we're higher if we're above support
there might be some challenges with the
stock getting back above that support
level so for us support is important
looking at this chart marathons had a
really nice run here a very nice run up
in 2020 to 2023 decent until we started
to drop in March but I see some nice
support here but not where we were at
yesterday I think we were looking at a
maybe a 109 10 110 strike uh 105 to 1 no
set 107 would be the highest for me 105
would be better so this was the one that
I did didn't like now
let's take a look at mro
because this was the trade that I took
uh and quite honestly I like the others
but this was the first one to pop up
yesterday uh before the market sell-off
continued right we had a gap down that
sell-off continued for another 90
minutes in the morning uh maybe it was
two hours but uh nonetheless with where
we opened this started to drift lower I
like the 22 strike we see here that
there's some decent support uh 21 22 I
decided to go for the 22. I collected
some nice premium there I sold next
Friday's expiration so we did uh test uh
that 22 level today we're up 2303 so
we're we're sitting pretty it's doing
its thing but with this one I definitely
like support here 20 50 21 uh 22
short-term support around 22. at this
pulled back to 20 A1 that's no big deal
at all if we break through this support
level and we start to see this 21-22
range I think we'll be just fine really
nice sideways movement on mro and I like
the fundamentals so this was the trade
that I took uh and then after this was
available uh and after I got into this
trade oxy popped up and oxy started to
look good so today the 58 strike is
available but yesterday the 57 strike
was available and that's what we traded
a couple of weeks ago uh when we got
assigned oxia 57 we sold 57 calls we got
called away last week with the rally and
then yesterday we pulled back we got
down to as low as 57 17. so Marcus went
ahead and sold the 57 for next Friday's
expiration uh so that was his trade
this is a trade where the fundamentals
uh if we we really get picky here that
it had a negative 2019 uh and a negative
2020 uh so the other stocks we're
looking at had a positive 2019. uh but
this is where the Buffett effect is real
right uh Warren uh Buffett's investment
uh or Berkshire Hathaway's investment in
uh oxy is really kind of supported these
prices I I think 55 to 57 is a great
range great support uh to be selling
puts and to potentially be a buyer of
oxy at least based on the chart and what
we see now so Marcus has the 57 put that
he sold expiring next Friday now Suncor
also popped up again uh it was after I
already got into my uh Marathon Oil
position but the 28th strike yesterday
was available this is a stock that we've
traded multiple times I think that that
20 you know 27 to 28 level is really
nice we did see this dip in October of
2022 where we got down to 26.50 but if
you look at everywhere everywhere buyers
are stepping in right here we have our
support indicator and powerx Optimizer
buyers stepping in around 29.50 around
20 uh nine around 28.50 around 28. so I
have 27 28 is great 28 popped up
yesterday I think it was a great trade
uh looks like it it would be working out
just nicely right now with Suncor at
2901. now the other one that we took a
look at Devon energy dvn I mean this is
where yesterday you really could take
your pick right uh Devin looked decent
the one thing with Devin is we kind of
had these higher support levels right
maybe around 51 to 56 uh for most of
last year in the beginning of this year
we've started to break into a new lower
range
in my opinion the that range that
support range is a little stronger and
and tested for oxy and also marathon
where here it's a little more recent and
if we break through support here I think
the next level is around 40 right which
is a bit of a drop
it's actually 20 right because ten
percent well yeah close close maybe
maybe uh sixteen Seventeen percent to
get down to 40. so it's not bad uh
fundamentals are good on this one but I
I personally like uh Marathon a little
bit better
um and that's why I traded Marathon now
you might ask well hey why didn't you
trade more well uh I have a position in
PNC here's my mro position I was looking
at CSIQ that was a trade that expired
last Friday CSIQ did not pop up at a
strike I like and here looking at our
asset correlation a tool this these
correlations are really nice right so
having lower correlations in your
portfolio is going to reduce risk and if
we look at uh we could add let's add oxy
and let's add Sun Core
and we could add MPC this for the
just for the discussion
okay we see that
with mro to
oxy 0.8 correlation This is highly
correlated basically the movements that
take place on a day-to-day basis are are
almost identical right a pure
correlation would be a reading of one
but point eight is very high same as Sun
course the Sun Core and mro 0.85 super
high MPC 0.74 super high uh so the the
challenge here is sure they all look
pretty good but then your portfolio
success is heavily dependent on oil and
gas right and as a Trader we don't know
what's going to happen right oil and gas
could uh just get hammered uh out of the
blue right just like the the banking
sector right got hammered in March just
out of the blue caught Traders off guard
well that's just one position for me if
I had everything in Banks it would be a
very difficult year but with it just
being one position it's really no big
deal right so by balance out the
portfolio we're reducing our risk in
theory right because if we if
everything's falling everything's
correlated uh but in theory we reduce a
risk and exposure and we're not relying
on just one sector uh outperforming and
being successful so that's why this is
important to me uh this portfolio looks
a little bit better I do not have CSIQ
but it's something on my radar something
that I'm keeping an eye on wow all of a
sudden I realized that I went uh pretty
long for a Friday so hey if you like
this video If you like this content then
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to be back here on Monday looking
forward to a fantastic weekend and then
more great opportunities on Monday until
then
happy trading everybody