>> NEIL: ALL RIGHT.
WE'RE DOWN ABOUT 40 POINTS RIGHT
NOW.
A LOT OF THIS IS IN THIS CRAZY
MARKET THESE DAYS, NOW IT'S
ELEVATED TO THE FEAR OF WAR IN
SYRIA, BUT LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE
PICTURE, EASIER SAID THAN DONE,
BUT THERE'S THE BACK AND FORTH
ON TRADE WITH CHINA AND THE BACK
AND FORTH ON THE TRANS-PACIFIC
PARTNERSHIP.
WE'VE GOT CHARLIE BRADY.
THEY CALL HIM OUR STOCK CENTER.
I CALL HIM OUR GENIUS.
THAT'S WHAT I CALL HIM.
WE'VE GOT CHARLIE GASPARINO.
I CALL HIM OUR THORN IN THE SIDE
BUT I LOVE HIM DEARLY.
I'M LOOKING AT THE TRADE THING
AND I'M THINKING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, THE LAST TWO WEEKS, THE
BADDER THINGS LOOK FOR TRADE AND
AVOIDING TARIFFS, THE BETTER IT
LOOKS FOR THE MARKET AND VICE
VERSA.
WILL THAT CONTINUE TO RULE THE
TONE?
>> YEAH, ABSOLUTELY.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THE
TONE.
AND I WAS ALWAYS STRUCK BY WHY
GET OUT OF THE T.P.P. IN THE
FIRST PLACE.
THERE WAS A SHOT AT HAVING CHINA
BEING PENALIZED FOR CURRENCY
MANIPULATION.
>> NEIL: THE TRANS PACIFIC
PARTNERSHIP -- WE PULLED OUT.
>> WE PULLED OUT.
IN OTHER WORDS, THE BASIC
CURRENCY, YOU MAKE YOUR PRODUCTS
CHEAPER TO SELL TO OTHER
MARKETS.
T.P.P. MAYBE COULD HAVE PUT A
STOP TO THAT.
I THINK IT'S A SMART IDEA FOR
THE PRESIDENT TO STEP BACK IN.
YOU WONDER IF LARRY KUDLOW IS
BEHIND THE PUSH BACK IN.
>> NEIL: WHAT DO YOU SUNSHINE.
>> I THINK IT WILL BE HARDER TO
GET BACK IN THAN THE PRESIDENT
THINKS.
THEY WENT THROUGH THE OTHER 11
NATIONS AND TOOK THEM FIVE YEARS
OF CONTENTIOUS BACK AND FORTH
NEGOTIATIONS AND LAST JANUARY --
>> NEIL: THEY'RE NOT GOING TO
TURN US DOWN.
>> LAST JANUARY WHEN TRUMP
PULLED OUT, HE LEFT THEM ALL
STANDING AT THE ALTAR.
NOW ESSAYING HE'LL -- HE'S
SAYING HE'LL JOIN BUT IT HAS TO
BE ON HIS TERMS.
>> NEIL: THEY MIGHT TELL HIM TO
STICK IT.
>> ON ONE HAND IT SHOWS HE
DOESN'T KNOW WHAT HE'S DOING
WITH TRADE.
THEN HE GETS BACK IN IT, SO THAT
SHOWS THAT AT LEAST MAYBE HE'S
LISTENING TO KUDLOW, WHO I KNOW
WANTS THE U.S. TO BE IN THE
T.P.P.
BUT IT MIGHT BE TOO LITTLE, TOO
LATE.
IT DOES SORT OF UNDERSCORE WHAT
I'VE BEEN SAYING I THINK A LOT,
THAT TRUMP IS ALL BLUSTER WHEN
IT COMES TO TRADE, THAT HE WON'T
-- THAT HE PROBABLY WON'T GO THE
FULL MONTE ON A LOT OF THIS
STUFF AND THE QUESTION IS, I
JUST WANT HIM TO DECLARE SOME
SORT OF VICTORY, JUST SAY WE
WON, CHINA SAID SOMETHING NICE
ABOUT US AND NOT GET INTO THIS
TRADE WAR.
>> I THINK A LOT OF TRUMP'S
THINKING FROM THE BEGINNING ON,
ESPECIALLY NOW I BELIEVE IT, IS
TO SORT OF DRIVE A WEDGE BETWEEN
RUSSIA AND CHINA, INSINUATE THE
U.S. BETWEEN THAT AND THAT'S WHY
HE'S BEEN --
>> I AGREE WITH THAT, BY THE
WAY.
>> UP UNTIL VERY RECENTLY, HE'S
BEEN VERY KIND.
ALL OF A SUDDEN HE DESTROYS THIS
ALUMINUM MAKER.
I MEAN, WOW.
HE SAID ENOUGH'S ENOUGH.
IT'S NOT WORKING, CHINA AND
RUSSIA ARE GETTING CLOSER
TOGETHER.
SO NOW HE'S TAKING A DIFFERENT
PATH.
WHAT YOU SAID, LINDSEY, I AGREE
WITH YOU, HE SHOULD HAVE BRANDED
CHINA WITH CURRENCY
MANIPULATION.
>> NEIL: WHAT IF IT'S WORKING,
THE THREAT OF TARIFFS, THE
THREAT OF GETTING TOUGH IS
WORKING.
I AGREE, IT DEPENDS WHAT YOU
COME UP WITH, BUT IF THAT'S
GETTING THEM TO COME TO THE
TABLE AND BE MORE CONCILIATORY,
IT MIGHT BE WORKING.
>> IT DOES SOUND LIKE IT MIGHT
BE WORKING, GIVEN PRESIDENT XI'S
SPEECH.
>> NEIL: HE'S DONE NOTHING SINCE
THAT SPEECH.
>> HE'S GIVEN THE SPEECH SEVERAL
TIMES.
>> CHINA PLAYS THE LONG GAME,
RIGHT.
THE PRESIDENT HAS --
>> EXTREMELY WELL.
>> CHINA PLAYS THE LONG GAME.
>> HE'S DICTATOR FOR LIFE, THIS
GUY.
>> HE'S IN CHARGE FOR AS LONG AS
HE WANTS TO BE.
BUT I THINK WHAT IS HAPPENING IS
THAT IF YOU WATCH IT, I MEAN --
SOMETIMES I'M LIKE OBSESSIVE AND
I WATCH THE --
>>
[ LAUGHTER ]
>> CHINA!
>> YES.
OKAY.
WHAT I WATCH NOW IS THE WAN AND
GOLD.
THEY'RE TRACKING ONE ANOTHER,
EACH OTHER INCREDIBLY WELL.
IF YOU LOOK AT A 52 WEEK --
>> NEIL: AS A COUNTER TO WHAT --
>> WHAT GOLD DOES, THE WAN DOES.
IT MIGHT BE A LAG.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE 52 WEEK
AVERAGE OF WHERE THE WAN AND
GOLD ARE, IT'S ALMOST A STRAIGHT
LINE.
IT HAS BEEN BY FAR --
>> WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
>> IT MEANS CHINA IS PEGGING
THEIR CURRENCY RIGHT NOW TO
GOLD, PERIOD.
THERE'S NO --
>> WHY ARE THEY DOING THAT 1234.
>> I THINK BECAUSE THEY WANT
GOLD TO ENTER THE MONETARY
SYSTEM.
>> AND TAKE US OUT?
>> NOT NECESSARILY.
>> AT A TIME WHEN THEY'RE MAKING
BIG BILLS BY THE WAY.
>> I DON'T WANT TO MAKE ANY
APOLOGIES FOR CHINA.
CHINA IS NOT LOOKING TO MAKE THE
WAN A SERVE CURRENCY.
WHAT -- A RESERVE CURRENCY.
THEY DON'T WANT ANY CURRENCY OF
ANY COUNTRY -- UNTHAT WOULD HELP
US.
I THINK THAT WOULD HELP US.
OUR DOLLAR'S OVER-VALUED.
>> NEIL: LET ME SWITCH GEARS.
MAYBE WE DON'T NEED A LOT OF
HELP.
WE HAVE EARNINGS THAT LOOK
STRONG THUS FAR, SUPPOSED TO BE
A STRONG QUARTER, THE FIRST ONE
THAT WILL TEST HOW COMPANIES
HAVE DEALT WITH ALL THIS TAX
MANNA FROM HEAVEN.
HOW DO YOU SEE IT SORTING OUT?
>> I THINK THERE WILL BE FOCUS
ON THE GUIDANCE FROM COMPANIES
WHEN THEY REPORT EARNINGS.
>> NEIL: WHAT ARE YOU SEEING SO
FAR?
>> AS YOU SAID, THE IMPACT OF
THE TAX CUTS IS GOING TO KICK
IN.
>> NEIL: ARE THEY ALL CREDITING
THAT FOR THE BIG NUMBERS.
>> IT'S MENTIONED IN -- ONLY A
FEW COMPANIES HAVE REPORTED SO
FAR.
>> THE BANKS WERE THE HIGH --
WILL LIKE THE HIGHER INTEREST
RATES TOO.
>> AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE
YIELD CURVE SANK TO THE LOWEST
IN TEN AND-A-HALF YEARS TODAY
WHICH IS ONE OF THE REASONS
FINANCIAL STOCKS WERE GETTING
HIT.
>> NEIL: WHY THE GAP BETWEEN THE
TWO YEAR WHICH IS RISING, THAT'S
NARROWING, TYPICALLY THAT COULD
MEAN A SLOWDOWN.
DO YOU WORRY ABOUT THAT?
>> HE
>> RECESSION?
NOT RIGHT NOW.
>> NEIL: HOW ABOUT A SLOWDOWN.
>> IF WE DO HAVE A SLOWDOWN,
WHEN YOU JUST BASICALLY CUT
TAXES THIS MUCH ON THE CORPORATE
SIDE, YOU COULD HAVE MUCH, MUCH
HIGHER DEFICITS.
THAT WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER
INTEREST RATES.
THAT'S I THINK THE REAL DANGER
WITH THIS TAX PLAN AND I'M FOR
IT.
I THINK WE SHOULD NORMALIZE OUR
TAX RATES AGAINST THE REST OF
THE WORLD.
I DON'T LIKE THE INDIVIDUAL
SIDE.
>> NEIL: I HAVEN'T HEARD THAT.
>> GET RID OF MY SALT TAXES.
I'M GOING CRAZY ABOUT THAT, MY
DEDUCTIONS, I SHOULD SAY.
IF YOU DON'T GET THAT 3.5% GDP
GROWTH, WHAT DOES IT DO TO THE
DEFICIT IN IT BLOW IT OUT.
>> THEY PREDICTED 3.3% GDP
GROWTH THIS YEAR.
>> THAT'S.
>> NEIL: GREAT.
>> NEIL: HAVE YOU EVER BEEN
RIGHT?
>> THAT'S THE FORECAST.
>> WHAT HAPPENS IF IT'S 3, WHICH
IS PROBABLY A MORE REALISTIC
NUMBER OR 2.9.
>> AS LONG AS IT DOESN'T TICK UP
ENOUGH -- THE FED THOSE BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE.
>> MICK MULVANEY SAID YOU HAVE
TO GET AT LEAST 3 TO MAKE ANY
SORT OF MARGINAL IMPACT ON THE
DEFICIT.
YOU'VE GOT TO GET 3.
IF IT'S ABOVE 3 IT'S BETTER.
BUT THAT BOGEY HAS TO BE 3.
IF YOU NOTICE UNDER OBAMA WE
NEVER REALLY HAD 3.
WE HAD SPURTS OF 3.
>> MAYBE ONE QUARTER.
>> THAT'S A KEY BOGEY.
THEY'RE BANKING ON THIS TAX PLAN
DOING IT AND I THINK IT WILL
HAPPEN BUT IF IT DOESN'T, THAT'S
GOING TO BE A REAL PROBLEM.
NEXT YEAR, YOU DO HAVE AN
INDIVIDUAL TAX INCREASE WHEN
THEY TOTALLY GET RILLET OF THE
SALT DEDUCTION -- RID OF THE
SALT DEDUCTIONS.
THAT WILL BE A PROBLEM AS WELL.
>> I THINK WHAT WILL HELP IS
THAT THE DOLLAR GOES DOWN A
LITTLE BIT, NOT LOSE ITS RESERVE
CURRENCY STATURE OR ANYTHING
LIKE THAT, BUT IF IT GOES DOWN,
THAT COULD REALLY HELP OUR GDP.
IT'S CLEAR.
>> WHAT COUNTRY EVER DEVALUED
ITS WAY TO PROSPERITY?
>> WE'RE OVER-VALUED RIGHT NOW,
CHARLIE.
>> WHERE DO YOU SEE THE DOLLAR?
>> THAT'S WHY WE HAVE A BIG
DEFICIT, BECAUSE OUR DOLLAR IS
SO EXPENSIVE.
BRING IT DOWN A LITTLE BIT TO A
FAIR VALUE.
THAT'S ALL I'M SAYING.
>> WE'VE GOT TO GO.
HE'S A LITTLE NASTY WHEN HE --
>> NEIL: A LITTLE TESTY THERE.
>> I DIDN'T MEAN TO BE TESTY.
>> NEIL: YOU I WANTED YOU TO GET
THAT GOLD THING OUT THERE.
>> I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT