It's been a pretty big week for Disney+ I'd say.
They announced on day one they had 10 million subscribers,
now they say that they're gonna get 60 to 90 million
by 2024.
I say they're underselling it.
Point is, people are excited,
Disney's excited, subscribers are excited
and frankly they should be,
but let me tell you why I'm actually more excited now
about AppleTV+ than I am about Disney+
and I'm also gonna offer some industry predictions
because, well frankly
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Now before I get started look
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But let's go ahead and dive into this subject today,
now let me go ahead and clarify a little bit,
I am not necessarily saying that
AppleTV+ is better than Disney+.
I'm also not saying that I'm not excited about Disney+,
I actually am.
But here's the thing,
I'm actually more excited about Disney+ for my kids.
I'm more excited about AppleTV+ for me,
so let me go and retread a little bit of the ground
that we've been over for the last few weeks.
So AppleTV+ came out on November 1st
and there was a little bit of fanfare
but it was kind of a quiet release
because as we've noted before,
they only had nine titles at release.
So they come out on November 1st with nine titles to watch
and everybody's like "Ah well, woopdie friggin do"
but here's the thing about the way AppleTV+ did it.
They had those nine programs
with a lot of content within each of those to watch.
So with their big shows,
"The Morning Show," "See," "For All Mankind," "Dickinson"
they had multiple episodes.
In the case of "Dickinson"
it was an entire season ready to go on day one,
so you were able to watch the entire thing,
or in the case of the other ones,
you got three episodes per show
that you could mini binge through
and in my case that actually got me interested
in the stories for each one
and now I'm excited for every Friday
when those shows come out again,
I want to see the next episode of "See"
I want to see the next episode of "The Morning Show"
and "For All Mankind".
I'm excited about them, I think about them more,
I talk about them more with other people.
Now with Disney+ having come out,
on day one for them they had 12 programs available
which is more than nine sure,
but of those programs
they had a single episode available for each
and most of them were really really short programs.
Even "The Mandalorian"
their marquee day one program
was only about 30 minutes long
and so you compare that to these hour long, expensive
marquee programs on AppleTV+,
it's just not quite the same thing
and ultimately, with the exception of "The Mandalorian"
the programs on AppleTV+
are frankly just more tailored to me.
And I suspect there might be some of you
who agree with me on this,
that you're more excited about the programming on AppleTV+
than you are about the new programming on Disney+.
So if we're comparing the two of them,
yeah maybe we give Apple a little tip of the cap here,
right?
Because what they've done
in releasing three episodes on day one
they got people more excited,
they gave you a little bit more of the story
to latch onto and get you interested
because so often with a pilot program
it's not necessarily going to sell you on the entire show,
how often have we heard that "yeah it takes a episodes
"for it to really get going."
and so Apple put all those episodes out right away
so that you could feel like "Wow this has really got going."
So where does that leave each of these services?
Especially as we go into the future.
Well this is the part where I make my sweet predictions.
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Disney+ is going to be just fine obviously,
they had 10 million subscribers on day one,
that's why we had all those hiccups on day one
with streaming issues and all of that stuff,
because the entire country was trying to watch
a few programs, right?
But anyway Disney+ is going to be just fine
but what it's going to do,
as we go into the future,
a year from now, three years from now, five years from now,
Disney+ will take the place of Netflix,
or at least live alongside it,
or in my opinion probably a little above it
as the kind of everything for everyone platform.
This is the one that everybody's going to have to have,
it's gonna have the family programming
where it's stuff that you can watch on car trips
or during dinner or whatever the case may be.
It's good for the kids, it's good for the parents,
it's good for everybody, right?
AppleTV+ is going to go a little bit different route.
AppleTV+ will take place of HBO,
this is prestige programming,
it's adult oriented programming generally.
I mean I'm not talking about "Snoopy in Space"
but it's adult oriented programming
and that is what HBO has been known for for years.
So why am I not saying that AppleTV+ will live alongside HBO
the same way that I think
Disney will live alongside Netflix?
Well it's because of what's going to happen with HBO.
We've talked a little bit about HBO in the past
and what's kind of coming down the pipe with them.
HBO Max will be coming soon
and one of the things that has been reported
is that HBO Max will absorb AT&T TV Now,
both owned by AT&T of course,
so what I think they're going to do is
maybe by the end of 2020 or sometime in 2021
they will offer HBO Max along the lines of
what we know Hulu as right now.
You've got Hulu and then you've got Hulu with live TV.
So ultimately I think HBO will struggle
to drive headlines and drive excitement
because it won't really be HBO the way that we know it.
They're going to water down their brand,
it has been for decades now this
prestige, adult oriented brand that made really cool content
that you had to pay a pretty penny to get, right?
And now they're going to get all this live TV
and they're going to bring in all this new programming,
they're going to try to get into
the everything for everyone space
and they're not going to be able to compete
with the likes of Disney+ and Netflix.
So HBO I suspect, over the coming years,
I'm not talking about months from now,
over the coming years they are going to kind of
dissipate a little bit,
they're going to bring their brand down
and it's going to be a lot less valuable than it is now
because of absorbing AT&T, Tv Now.
And they're going to struggle to drive
the same kind of headlines that we're going to get
out of Disney+ and AppleTV+,
maybe some others but I think those two especially
will start to pull ahead of the pack in the coming years.
So Disney+ obviously,
it's Disney, they've got all the vault content
and they are going to create more original
interesting, hopefully, content
you know along the lines of the MCU and Star Wars
and that sort of thing.
AppleTV+ will start to make those older HBO style programs,
the things that we're used to
like "The Sopranos", like "The Wire" things like that,
that's gonna now live on AppleTV+, that style of content.
So all of the highfalutin reviewers and critics
are going to be looking at the AppleTV+ programs
and saying "Hey everybody..."
"...look at all this great content over there."
Anyway, give it 5 years,
that's what the landscapes going to look like.
Staking my claim right now.
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but you know what?
Ultimately, no matter how much Craig is always right,
frankly I'm probably an idiot so hit the comments below,
let me know what you think about this
and whether you think my predictions will come true.
Hit the comments, give this video a like,
subscribe if this sort of content
is interesting and helpful to you.
Thanks everybody, I'll see ya next time.