Good morning, everyone.
I'm Meteorologist Evan Orani with CBSA.
Given you our CBS8 extended
forecast for our Friday.
As we track now,
Hurricane Hillary previously was a
tropical storm over the last 24 hours,
underwent what we call rapid intensification
and is now a Category 4 hurricane.
It is still expected to make landfall
in San Diego as a tropical storm,
so it will have started to decay in the
process as it travels up the Baja Peninsula.
We'll get into all the details
of this storm from today through
your weekend into next week.
We're giving you basically
the next eight days.
So it's going to be a long one here,
but you can stick with us for as much
of it or as little of it as you like.
The emphasis and the big picture that
we're emphasizing is that the majority
of that rain is going to start up
Saturday night into early Sunday,
all day Sunday rain in San Diego
and then breaking apart Monday
morning into Monday afternoon.
Wind is also going to be a
huge threat associated with it,
especially West of the mountains.
We'll look at your wind speeds too.
Currently a category 4 storm,
145 mile per hour sustained speeds
around the eye wall of that storm.
It is still way far off from San Diego
and pretty far off from even Cabo.
It's not even going to make
landfall close to Cabo,
but it will around that Cabo area just
to the West of it start to degrade.
So we're going to see it drop from a
category 4 storm to a category 3 storm.
What's contributing to that is
going to be cooler ocean water.
As this storm travels N it will start
to encounter colder ocean water.
Right now,
water temperatures where it is
about 8590 degrees out there,
as we move farther N,
we'll see that around the San Diego area,
coastal waters are closer to 70 degrees.
That is a dramatic departure and this
storm does not want colder water.
So colder water is going to be
our friend and it is going to be
our saving grace when it comes
to seeing this storm decay.
So we're going to watch that happen
over the next several hours and the
next several days in particular.
It's still going to be a Category 4 storm,
likely by the time we get to this afternoon,
but by the time we get into Saturday,
that's when we start see it
drop to a Category 3A,
category two and then a category
one storm before arriving in
San Diego as a tropical storm.
You wouldn't know looking
outside right now though.
That's because San Diego has
mostly sunny conditions out there.
Marine layer is dense along the coastline.
Temperatures this afternoon are
expected to be in the 80s and 90s.
It's going to be a warm day before
we all cool down to the 70s with the
approach of this tropical storm,
currently Category 4 hurricane.
So this is the satellite radar view right
now, but I want to switch over to what we're
anticipating because we have several watches,
warnings and advisories in play
that we want to start off with.
The biggest thing on hand right now is San
Diego's first ever tropical Storm watch.
County of San Diego has never
seen one of these before.
This is the very first time it takes effect
today, and it is in effect currently.
It will last through Monday at 8:29 AM.
Essentially what that means is this
entire weekend, Saturday, Sunday,
Monday, we've got this tropical
Storm Watch in effect.
If we see this storm as imminent
and making landfall in San Diego,
there's a good chance that this watch will
be upgraded to a warning or an advisory.
Flood Watch is also in effect.
Important to note that that Flood Watch is
in effect below this tropical storm watch,
so they are both working in tandem.
You only see the pink and that's
the tropical storm watch.
But the Flood watch also applies to the
entirety of San Diego County as flooding
as a top concern associated with this
storm starting on Sunday at 5:00 AM
lasting through Monday at 11:00 PM.
So Sunday morning through Monday
night is really the prime time
frame and watching out for.
And it's not just San Diego County,
there's a good portion of Southern California
under that first ever tropical storm watch.
We also see a good portion of California,
Nevada,
Arizona all under this green which
is that flood watch as well.
So the risk of flooding lasts all
the way as far north as Vegas just
off to the east of Reno NV Pretty
incredible trajectory that we'll
see of that storm as it travels.
N also want to point out all of
those other tropical storm watches,
warnings,
advisories.
We have a hurricane warning that is farther
S toward the southern Baja peninsula
just around the central portion of it.
We're at a hurricane watch and
then we have that tropical storm
watch because as I mentioned,
it'll keep traveling N here and as
it does so it will decay and as it
decays it will lose its momentum.
Wind speeds will drop.
Rain is still a huge threat,
mainly West of the Mount,
east of the mountains, I should say,
wind being the primary thought
West of the mountains.
But what we see across our deserts
is a tremendous amount of moisture
in a pretty small segment of time.
And that's where we see the
greatest threat for flash flooding,
Borrego Springs,
Octia wells pushing all the way
up to the Palm Springs area.
We see a huge opportunity for
flooding and flash flooding at that,
which we'll jump into in just a minute.
As I mentioned earlier,
you wouldn't know looking outside.
So that's why we're asking that
you stay tuned to this forecast
because when you look at what we see
outside right now, sunny skies,
temperatures in the 70s,
this is the calm before the storm yesterday
and the last several days we were healing,
dealing with heat advisories,
excessive heat warnings.
It was very hot out there and it was windy.
We even saw fires pop up across our county,
so we're watching those fires as
they're continuing to be contained.
We're also watching as sunny skies
remain 76 degrees along our coastline
has that afternoon high, right?
So let's track Hillary a little
bit more Category 4 right now.
Watch as it makes its way N
just off to the West of Cabo.
It'll be a Category 3 storm.
It continues to decay to a Category
2 storm by Sunday at 5:00 AM.
Far landfall is not expected until we
get into late Sunday, early Monday.
But what we have to keep in mind is
that doesn't necessarily mean that the
rain starts late Sunday, early Monday.
It's just that the center of that
storm is over our area late Sunday,
early Monday.
This storm is the size of Texas.
So the outer periphery,
those larger outer bands are
still threatening a good portion
of Mexico and especially Baja
California in the coming days.
And then for us in San Diego,
we expect our first showers to begin
late Saturday night into early Sunday.
It is a category one hurricane.
By the time we get into Sunday at 5:00 PM,
it's not expected to make landfall
in San Diego as a tropical storm.
That's what this says here until we
get into Monday morning about 5:00
AM You see that just around the
greater Southern California area
still expected to pack tropical storm
force winds and rain in the forecast.
So you can clearly make out the
eye of this hurricane.
This is the radar imagery and our
forecast rainfall going through
the next several days.
It will keep pushing farther up to the north,
just off to the West of the Baja Peninsula.
We don't see San Diego incorporated
in this until we get into Saturday.
So here is 950 on Saturday.
We know we have had a lot of questions
on hand and pretty much the number
one question I've been asked is
when is it going to start to rain?
Well scattered showers and lighter
scattered showers at that are
going to begin Saturday night,
especially across the mountains and deserts.
But county wide will notice that into
Saturday night because there's that rain.
This is the outer band of Hurricane Hillary.
This is the hurricane itself,
the eye of the hurricane right there.
It will keep traveling N we'll start to
get those stronger bands of precipitation
embedded in this as we get into Sunday,
Sunday afternoon and evening.
Prime opportunity for some severe
thunderstorms to take place for strong
downdrafts of wind upwards of 50 mph.
We look at this storm as a tropical
storm as it makes landfall.
Tropical storms can still pack 70
mile per hour gusts.
That's still a possibility with this storm.
You see how a lot of that
moisture is over the ocean.
I want to emphasize that cone of
uncertainty that we were looking
at with this hurricane allows for
this storm to take several routes.
It can move east. It can move West.
This specific model,
this graph model that we're looking at,
tends to push it a little bit farther
off to the West, over the ocean,
and up toward the LA area.
There is no definite track of this storm.
That is why we call it the
cone of uncertainty,
because it can travel in either direction,
east or West.
Anywhere in that cone is fair game
as to where the storm could make
landfall and that exact I wall path.
It'll keep traveling N from there.
Again,
graph starts to show it making its most
intense push into the LA area late Sunday,
early Monday.
We're still picking up on many showers
to start off the day on Monday,
2:20 AM or so.
Want to talk about wind
because as I mentioned,
it really is dependent on where
you are as to who's going to see
the most intense wind versus rain.
We pause this at 7:30 AM on Sunday.
That's when these winds start to pick up
beyond that 20 to 30 mile per hour marker,
57 mph in Julian at that time frame,
44 in Pine Valley,
39 in Campo.
Watch as that purple starts to
spread West of the mountains.
This is where we start to see more
concern related to wind damage close
to the coast and inlet when we have
a dramatic Santa Ana wind event.
The mountains and deserts are
prepared and can adequately handle
5060 and 70 mile per hour gusts.
They've done it before.
Of course it's still dangerous
out there and worth the mention,
but when we talk about the coastline,
seeing that, that's an anomaly.
We are not at all used to seeing the
coastline in the 5060 and 70 mile
per hour range and that's what we're
going to see as that purple starts to
spread farther off to the West Oceanside.
48 mph 50 in Del Mar,
50 in downtown San Diego,
52 in Fallbrook.
One thing that we also notice is
we can actually watch with these
arrows showing the direction of the
wind that storm as it makes its way.
N you'll notice the eye as it
passes and makes its way up north.
That wind completely shifts
direction and starts to die down,
so by the time we get into
Monday morning we're calmer.
But we're still quite breezy out there
in terms of how much rain we could see.
Two to three inches expected
along our coastline,
5 to 7 inches across our
mountains and deserts.
With this 24 hour stretch in particular,
I would say from about midnight
Sunday to midnight into Monday.
That is going to be a crucial
time frame to
watch across our mountains and deserts
where we see the risk of flash flooding
across our mountains and deserts,
In particular eastern slopes of the
mountains toward the deserts along
the coast in inland 2 to 3 inches.
Still quite a bit of rain on hand.
So not only is rain going to be a threat,
but wind as well.
Wind is a larger threat closer
the coastline and inland.
Rain, especially those doubled accumulations
compared to the coast is a larger threat
across the mountains and deserts,
deserts in particular.
So I know I've thrown a lot of information
out you at you and I know that this is a
storm that we are continuing to track,
but that deviates, right.
These models update quite constantly
and give us new information.
So we're trying to bring you the latest
as we can, but it is not perfect.
That's why we call it uncertainty, right?
We talk about our confidence levels in this.
Our highest confidence is in rain being
most widespread Sunday into the evening
hours and then continuing through Monday.
But it looks like it could
start up as early as Saturday,
especially Saturday evening.
We want to ask have your preparations
complete by Sunday night.
Have you prepared?
The things that we should be doing
to prepare for this storm are
probably things that many residents
would say are going overboard.
It is way better to be over
prepared than under prepared.
For a storm like this.
You do not want to be caught in
flash flooding and 70 mile per hour
gusts and then say you were under
prepared over prepare now and then
be grateful on the back end of the
storm that it didn't come to fruition.
What does that mean?
To over prepare, you should have
a completely full tank of gas.
Absolutely full.
That is the first thing.
Everything outside of your home
needs to be completely taken care of.
Meaning any loose furniture
should be brought inside pillows.
Anything that you leave outside on that
furniture needs to be brought inside as well.
Otherwise expect it to be picked
up and pulled around with this
storm possibility of flooding.
Do you have sandbags?
Are you prepared if we do see some flooding?
Up to 5-7 inches of it.
Are you prepared for what
your next step would be?
Do you have enough non perishables with you?
Because we may lose power in this storm,
especially with those intense wind gusts.
If it takes down a tree or power line,
many of us could lose power.
So that's going to translate to
ensuring that you have non perishables
ready to eat and water to drink.
Those are important steps as well.
Finally,
you want to make sure that you are just
prepared with resources around the area.
We are going to have plenty of
resource centers available.
There's a list of them on
our website cbs8.com.
If you click on the help button,
we have more information on
all that preparedness underway
across the county of San Diego.
We ask that all of this is done before you
go to bed on Saturday because by Sunday
morning that storm is going to start up.
You want to have everything completed.
We've already touched on the wind,
but strong wind gusts 35 to 70 mph,
sets of three to five foot
waves for the San Diego coast.
RIP current risk remains very high and South
facing beaches are especially impacted.
We're rounded out with where
we are right now.
Temperatures right now are warm.
They're mild closer to the coastline.
We are expecting our afternoon highs
to peak in the 70s and 80s out there,
77 for Carlsbad, 88 for Escondido,
93 for Ramona and 90 for Julian and Alpine.
We are going to cool down
as this storm arrives.
We expect that Sunday could
be a warmer one out there,
but Monday is going to be the
coolest day that we have on hand.
71 degrees along our coastline on Monday,
75 inland.
And here's the thing,
As quickly as this storm arrives
on Saturday night into Sunday,
it is going to exit Monday
afternoon and Monday evening.
After Monday we are back to dry skies.
Temperatures start to moderate themselves,
head back closer to average
mid 70s along the coastline,
mid and upper 80s as we make our way inland.
A lot of sunshine for that Tuesday
through Friday stretch next week.
So in particular it is Saturday
night to Monday morning that
we are most concerned about.
As far as our impacts go,
mountains and deserts will
experience similar trends,
severe thunderstorms easily
embedded in this strong system.
We talked about the size of the system.
It's about the size of Texas and that's
why the eye of the storm is just one thing.
Landfall in San Diego is just one thing,
but we're going to see the outer
bands of this and the initial
shaping of showers across our area
as we get into Saturday night.
So that's going to be the first
time to start watching out for that,
especially across our mountains and deserts.
Thunderstorms through and through,
starting to dry out by the time we get
into Monday afternoon and Monday evening.
Trust me,
I know this is a lot to take in.
Our first ever tropical storm watch.
One of the first times in about a
century that we've seen a tropical
storm actually with the potential
of making landfall in San Diego.
So it can induce a lot of anxiety.
We want you to take a deep breath with us.
We are here to help you.
We are working for you and giving
you the latest on this storm
as it continues to move.
The one thing that we are certain of is
that every single part of this forecast
that you just looked at could change.
There is a lot of uncertainty
related to it and
that's why we will work to keep
you updated on the forecast as
these models continue to change.
National Hurricane Center and
the National Weather Service in
San Diego also doing their part
to keep us consistently updated.
All of the info that I gave to
you here was accurate as of Friday
at about 9:00 AM all of this
again will change and can change.
We are here with you all weekend
long to keep you updated on the
preparations underway in order to
make sure that homes and businesses
are prepared for this storm.
And we of course,
will continue as that storm makes
landfall from Sunday night into Monday.
So you can keep up to date with
the latest here on cbs8.com.
You can download the CBS8 app for the latest.
You can also keep up to date on
all of our social platforms.
We have Facebook page,
We have an Instagram page.
It'll give you the latest there.
In the meantime,
I want to appreciate you being with us
for this CBS8 plus extended forecast.
Again,
I'm meteorologist Evan Irani with
the latest on Hurricane Hillary
expected to make landfall in San
Diego as Tropical Storm Hillary,
we hope you all are safe through
the day and through the weekend.
And we will see you back here over the
course of the weekend for the latest.