Right now, I still think we're in the bull cycle
even though we are actually technically in a weekly bear market
and in a daily bear market.
It's just that, for me, it doesn't make sense that this bull cycle tops out at $69K
and that that was the top.
For me, historically, it makes much more sense that we go to $100K to $300,000
in this cycle, and then we see a multi-year bear cycle.
That's what I've been saying for three, four years now.
And I still think that's true
as long as we're above $30,000.
Hey, everybody! As always on Mondays, I'm joined by Carl from The Moon.
Don't forget to subscribe to his channel down below in the description.
And, Carl, I've got to say that, you know, I know your name is The Moon,
but it feels like we're going to the cellar right now, or the bottom of the ocean floor, with Bitcoin.
Very fascinated to get your take from a technical perspective
on where things are going,
but first and foremost, as always, how are you doing, Carl?
I am doing like, I think, everyone is doing right now.
I feel like we are in bearish times.
We had a huge correction.
And obviously, all of us, we are crypto believers, Bitcoin HODLers.
We love to see when Bitcoin is going up.
So right now, of course, that's something that is, you know.
It is what it is.
But we're going to go into the charts and talk about the technicals because
remember, when we look into the charts, we should not be emotional.
We should just be rational.
And I want to do that here with you today.
Yeah. Well, let's go and get started. Let's see what you have.
I know all the people are very curious on, you know, like I said, from a technical perspective,
where things are heading to because from a psychological perspective,
it doesn't feel great right now.
That's for sure.
Alright, guys. So before we go into the charts, you were talking about how I am The Moon
and we're not really at the moon anymore.
Well, I actually changed my name on Twitter to The Floor.
And that was like a funny thing that people thought was very funny.
So that was like a small little, yeah, joke.
And I told my audience now that I'm not going to change back to The Moon
unless we break back above $41,000.
So as long as Bitcoin remains below this resistance at $41K,
I will remain The Floor on Twitter.
That's-- that's that.
Bitcoin is right now breaking down below key support levels.
And let me just isolate a couple of them or show you what we're looking at.
So first of all, we have this huge level here at $35.3K or $35.4K.
We are currently breaking it as I am recording this video.
Obviously, the daily clothes will be interesting to watch here.
Will we close above or below?
And this comes after we broke the most important level of all the levels right now,
which is $41,000.
And, like I just said,
as long as we're below this green box,
which is massive previous support and massive previous resistance,
I will remain The Floor on Twitter
because as-- I mean, being below this level is just very, very bearish.
And I've been telling my audience on my channel that as long as we're above that level,
we're still in a weekly bull trend.
But right now, we are technically in a weekly bear trend
because we broke down below the previous low.
So that means we have a trend of now lower lows on the weekly timeframe.
So it's a weekly bear market.
And on the daily, we're, of course, in a bear market since a very long time back.
And we also have this head and shoulders that I was talking about for a few weeks now.
This broke down, obviously.
And some people have probably already made the calculations here that
if you take the head,
pull it down like this,
then technically the target should be all the way down at $21,000.
Question is do I think that's going to happen?
Well, first of all, it's definitely possible.
But I think the most important level for me to watch right now is $30,000. Right here.
That's the big level with big previous support.
This level will not give in so easily.
So if we come back down to these levels,
I think we're definitely initially going to see a bounce,
maybe even retest resistance here.
And that's the big question then.
Are we going to get rejected and go down like this?
Or are we going to be able to break back above?
And, of course, this is far into the future in the next, like, few weeks,
maybe a couple of months or so.
But--
okay, so what I would say now,
what I'm watching currently for today is the daily close here
because if we confirm a daily close below $35.4K,
that means we're quite likely to come down to $30,000.
And after that fact,
we have big overhead resistance again
and--
and big support, of course.
So that's-- that's the news.
The new area we will be trapped within.
But I would say that we are bearish right now,
and we have to just understand that if the technicals are looking bearish,
we have to be rational and see that.
But I still think that we are probably going to see $100,000 this year.
I still think we are in a bull cycle.
But if we break down below $30,000,
that's when probably I have to start considering a multi-year bear market kind of thing.
But, yeah, right now, I still think we're in the bull cycle
even though we are actually technically in a weekly bear market
and in a daily bear market.
It's just that, for me, it doesn't make sense that this bull cycle tops out at $69K
and that that was the top.
For me, historically, it makes much more sense that we go to $100K to $300,000
in this cycle, and then we see a multi-year bear cycle.
That's what I've been saying for three, four years now.
And I still think that's true
as long as we're above $30,000.
Yeah, Carl. I think that a lot of us got too obsessed with the number.
I think we got too obsessed with the number of where it was going to,
and we're so focused on whether it was going to $100K, $200K, $300,000
that I think it almost prevented us from taking stock of like where the market actually was.
I think if we didn't have these high expectations for where we thought Bitcoin's price should go,
then maybe we could have read the tea leaves a little bit better on this
because I'm with you.
If we go below $29,000,
if we go below where we were in the summertime,
I don't see any way we can still call it a bull market.
I mean, because certainly we have a higher high that we did make back in November,
but once we go to a lower low,
it's going to be hard to keep defending that position that we think the prices are going up.
Where do you think-- let's assume that we are going down.
Let's assume we are going into this multi-year bear market.
You know, where do you think this bull market went wrong?
Why did we not get to the levels we thought we would get to?
That's an amazing question, and I don't feel like I have the answer
because if this was the top now,
what went wrong?
Well, I can't see anything that did go wrong.
I don't see any fundamentals that are off.
I don't see-- I mean, I mean, we have El Salvador.
I mean, come on. They made Bitcoin legal tender.
That's a huge step.
We have Tesla buying Bitcoin.
We have Michael Saylor buying billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin.
We have mainstream adoption going up very, very, very fast.
So fundamentally, Bitcoin has never been stronger.
I don't see that anything necessarily went wrong.
I really can't tell you.
Like, I feel like everything is going well for Bitcoin, is going very well for crypto.
And I would love to see adoption happen even faster,
which is actually why we, of course, also started Kasta
to make these payments smoother, faster and cheaper.
But, yeah, for me, I think that maybe the bull cycle is still going to happen.
It's just that if you look at the chart here,
we got so exuberant prematurely here.
And usually when you get so extraordinarily overbought in the short term,
sometimes you have to go back into extremely oversold before you can go up
and resume the bullish price action
because if you overlay the different cycles over each other,
then you will see that, of course, this bull run here was definitely premature.
We were front running previous cycles.
- And if anything, - Yeah.
the cycles should get longer, not shorter.
So I think what happened here is we just got a premature bull run.
Now, we're going to go at least sideways for quite some time,
but maybe even go and get this crazy capitulation.
Maybe we are going to $20,000, retesting that and then going up.
It's definitely possible.
So I'm not saying that it's impossible for us to go down to $20K and then resume the bull cycle.
It's definitely a possibility.
I would love to see Bitcoin stay above $30,000 because it's a big support,
and if we break $30K, then it's just a big risk that we end up in a multi-year bear market,
but anything is possible.
There's nothing that necessarily went wrong because that was your question,
and I can't see anything that went wrong.
Yeah. I think you might be on to something here.
I think maybe what actually went wrong is things are going too right in the beginning,
You know? When you really look at everything that was lined up perfectly for Bitcoin
that brought us we were so far ahead of where we should have been
- with the cycle in the beginning - Yeah.
that we were all now looking at, you know, can Bitcoin get to $500,000?
Like, how high can it get?
But in reality, it ran out of gas too early.
And maybe we need that, you know, that slower build up.
And I think another fascinating conversation, which we don't really have time for today,
but is to look at, you know, if this was the top,
and we only basically three-and-a-half timed the previous all-time high,
what does this mean for bull runs going forward?
I think that's a very fascinating question to think about.
You know, a lot of us are thinking a million dollars.
I know you were thinking about, you know, a million dollars in the next cycle.
I know I've said about 10 years.
Maybe we're both off, you know?
Maybe it's a much further time, you know, down the road.
We do believe eventually it will get to all these numbers.
It will eventually get to $100,000.
It will eventually get to a million dollars.
Value proposition is just too high.
But, you know, maybe we need to start, you know, thinking about
taking Bitcoin off of our schedule and, you know, maybe start getting on Bitcoin schedule.
Uh-huh. I think you are correct that basically back here,
we had too much bullish stuff happening.
We had, you know, Elon Musk, Tesla, Michael Saylor, bunch of bullish news.
I even think El Salvador probably happened somewhere back here.
Do you remember exactly the date of El Salvador news?
It was somewhere near the top. I know that.
It was exactly. It was like, you know, somewhere back then.
- Yeah. - And it was just too much hype at the same time.
And I remember how I was telling my audience that we are going up too fast.
"This is not good. It's not healthy to get such an explosive run-up."
And I think that was maybe what went wrong.
We just had too much exuberance in the short term.
And that's--
so what we're seeing right now is just the consequence of
too much buying pressure coming in in the short term.
And right now, we have to shake out some of those weak hands
that jumped in just because of FOMO.
And--
and I think that this is a good thing.
From our perspective now,
this is a good realization because that means that,
well, the bull cycle doesn't necessarily have to be over.
It's just that we now have to shake out some weak hands before we go forward
because we were too-- we front ran it too much.
And that's what I think.
Do you want me to take a quick look at Ethereum as well?
Or what do you think?
Yeah, you can take a quick look.
I just want to show you, like, quickly that
obviously, Ethereum has right now also broken a very key level
because just like you know, we had $2.8K here.
This green box. Very, very, very important previous resistance, previous support.
We broke that one.
And of course, we immediately came down to the next support.
And when we're recording this here, we can see that Ethereum is breaking $2.4K,
coming down towards $2.2K,
and this daily close is probably going to close bearish, it looks like, depending on Bitcoin.
If we close bearish here,
then I'm very, very certain that we're probably going to go down and retest $1.8K for Ethereum.
And, yeah, that's my quick little Ethereum analysis there.
Yeah, with Ethereum sitting right now around $2,200 and Bitcoin at $33,000,
it's a little scary to think about where Ethereum could go.
I think it could blow certainly right through that support box
if Bitcoin were to start heading below $29K.
So, you guys, listen. Here's the thing.
Be careful out there.
Be smart with your investments.
Don't panic.
Try to make informed decisions.
And, you know, we will get this thing heading back in the right direction.
It may be later rather than sooner.
But, you know, you've always got to pay attention in crypto
because things can always change quick.
So, Carl, thank you so much for joining us today and providing us with this insight.
I wish it was a little better news.
I wish we could tell everybody that, you know, Bitcoin's going to $100K tomorrow,
but unfortunately, we've got to be realistic with where the market is.
So you guys make sure to go head down below to the description,
subscribe to Carl's channel here on YouTube to get more technical analysis information
and also learn more about Kasta, his project he mentioned during the video.
Drop your comments down below. Let us know what you think.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.