Donald Trump has started strong in the 2024 primary with wins in Iowa and
New Hampshire.
You know,
we won New Hampshire three times now yet,
nearly half of primary voters didn't vote for him when those non Trump
voters were asked how they'd feel if he were the nominee.
Some said they would be satisfied with it.
Some said they'd be dissatisfied but would still vote for him in November.
But a good number seen here in orange said they would be so dissatisfied they
wouldn't.
So what can we learn about these voters?
We've asked our demographics expert,
there are signs in New Hampshire and in Iowa that there's a schism in the party that's pretty
meaningful.
Here's what the data says about these voters that could be trouble for Trump in November.
Let's break these into two Trump voters on the left and the non Trump voters on the
right in New Hampshire.
We're really talking about Haley voters in Iowa.
We'll do a weighted average of the voters who voted for her DeSantis or Ramaswamy.
If you look at some of their basic demographics,
the difference doesn't lie in gender,
both the Trump and non Trump voters have about equal amounts of men and women.
It doesn't lie in age either.
They are equally people with guns in their homes and just as likely to be evangelical
Christian.
But differences come up when you look at education,
non Trump voters are more likely to have college degrees and at income
most earn above 50,000 or even $100,000.
And they tend to be more suburban just like the Republican Party was before
Donald Trump.
We used to have a kind of voter,
we called the country club Republican upper income and suburban Donald Trump
activated people who didn't vote very much before we know that he's brought in a lot of working
class people,
but in the course of doing that,
he's alienated others.
So what we're seeing in those states is who he's pushing away to see who that is.
There are two themes to look at for one,
the issues they care about Trump and non Trump voters equally care about the
economy,
but non Trump voters care less about immigration and two times more about
foreign policy.
They also care more about domestic issues like abortion and health care.
Non Trump voters also favor continuing aid to Ukraine,
especially in New Hampshire where more independent voters weigh in.
But more than half of Trump voters say that it's important to them to have a Republican
nominee that's willing to break the rules to get things done,
which hints at the larger theme separating these voters.
Trump himself.
I'm going to be a dictator for one day for drilling and for
closing the border.
And after that,
I'm not going to be a dictator.
When asked about the charges against Trump,
nearly all of his voters described them as political attempts to undermine him while
non Trump voters were more likely to describe them as legitimate attempts to investigate important
issues.
It's a witch hunt in the truest sense of the word its election interference when it comes to his
involvement in January 6th,
in particular,
the majority of Trump supporters believe he did nothing wrong but more non Trump voters
feel that Trump did something unethical but not illegal or illegal.
And with the 2020 election,
the majority of Trump supporters feel Biden was not legitimately elected non
Trump voters believe Biden's win was legitimate.
Those are fundamental rejections of the Donald Trump proposition
and the things that he is saying to win the voters who he's winning.
And there's really not much in Donald Trump's rhetoric or behavior now that shows that he's trying to reach out to
voters who think that the election was not stolen.
But if you're with us,
they put you in jail.
Look at what's happened with the J six hostages,
the hostages.
That's a horrible thing.
Despite these divides,
Trump's wins are putting him in a strong position to win enough delegates to become the Republican nominee.
This really is Donald Trump's party.
What we're talking about here is a November problem.
It's unclear whether these non Trump voters would vote for Biden instead or just not show
up to the polls.
But in a general election,
you can't lose your base.
Just look at 2020 s voters.
This is how many people voted,
who consider themselves Democrats and who consider themselves Republicans.
95% of Democrats voted for Biden and only 91% of
Republicans voted for Trump.
That drop in base support was a major reason.
It cost him the election in Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans who said they would vote for
Trump if he was the nominee in November came to only 80%.
Is there anybody in this room that's not going to vote for Trump just don't raise your hand.
It could be dangerous every election candidates vie for these independent
voters.
But in 2024 there are signs that Trump is pushing away a significant portion
of his base.
So the campaign becomes about who can he pull in?