I'm WS9, Weather Watch
meteorologist Topper shut.
We are tracking Ian and good
news for folks in Tampa.
The storms taking a little bit of a
jog to the right or to the South.
So here we go tonight at midnight,
category three, and then by the time
we get to say noon on Wednesday,
so tomorrow, Wednesday, category four.
And notice it's far South of Tampa,
so it's now headed for Fort Mill,
Fort Myers and that area.
So longboat key is here, Tampa is there,
so that's good news.
It's going to keep the highest winds and
the biggest storm surge South of Tampa.
Super Bad News though of like
Coral Beach and for Fort Myers.
So that's in the afternoon,
that's noon on Wednesday.
Moves ashore even by midnight Thursday.
So late Wednesday night,
still a category,
probably category three at this point,
wins 1:30 by 2:00 PM on Wednesday.
Then it goes to A1 very quickly and that's
6:30 in the morning on Wednesday or Thursday.
Rather 12:30 on Thursday.
Still a CAT1 moving.
Into the peninsula of Florida and
then headed toward Gainesville and
then Jacksonville and then we after
that it moves off to the north.
A curves back,
maybe just get off the coast
briefly of Georgia and then come
back into Upstate Carolina.
That's by Saturday 10:00 o'clock.
So you know by that time we're
looking at rain and showers here
by the time we get into Saturday
morning from the remnants of Ian.
OK, so it is a CAT3 cat 4 right now at 1:30.
Be cat 3 right now,
120 supposed to be a cat four 1:30
tomorrow or late tonight and that
would be our this is our second
major hurricane of the season.
Now in the past, Hurricane, Tampa Bay,
Hurricane 1921 started a similar
position and then it took a turn,
look at that.
South of Tampa.
Tampa to my knowledge has never
been hit directly by hurricane,
so it went that way and then stayed offshore.
So this track is going to be similar to this.
Be a little further N,
but kind of similar now.
That said,
this storm still did a lot of
damage to Cortez in Sarasota.
They had heavy structural damage,
so it's not great.
It's not, you know,
they're not going to escape everything.
But at least the good news is where
the track like that and a track like
what we think Ian's going to take.
The highest winds will remain
South of Tampa Bay. That is good.
OK,
So what about storm surge now the
storm surge, as you might expect,
has been a little further S because the
models are changing the their tune a bit.
Now this the red is the European model,
yellow is the American model.
They're pretty much in lockstep on Wednesday,
and then by the time we get to say Thursday,
they're still pretty close.
And then by Friday.
This is a little slower,
the American miles a little slower.
The European model extends it and
races it off the coast of Jacksonville
and then both of them bring it back
in to inland Georgia as we get into
Saturday and the weekend and it kind of
just died out by late Saturday night.
OK. So in terms of retired names,
this is kind of interesting.
We'll Ian be retired,
could be a lot of eyes have been retired
13 and some of them ring a bell for
us like Isabel that went to our West.
And produced a ton of tornadoes
in the metro area at 2003.
I remember Irene.
And so we'll see if Ian will
be added to that list.
It's the most common name, retired,
which is kind of odd.
OK, so no real surprise here.
We have yellow,
that's tropical storm warnings.
We have red, that is hurricane warnings.
And they're in effect for
essentially almost all of Florida.
Now here is the storm surge forecast.
The red here is 8 to 12 and notice,
you know, if you were with us.
Today, the 8:00 to 12:00 is at Tampa,
so they've moved it down closer
to the landfall of the storm,
which makes perfect sense.
So still 4 to 6 feet,
three to five feet in Tampa and six
to 9 feet South of, Say, Fort Myers.
Just South of Fort Myers.
OK, so.
Ian is still headed generally toward Tampa,
but now the updated track
is now South of Tampa.
When will the highest winds be in Tampa
and the and the largest storm surge.
We're going to say 2:00 PM
now to 7:00 AM on Thursday,
looking a little bit earlier on on Wednesday.
Now for us, for the DMV.
Yeah,
Ian's going to send us some rain and showers.
We'll say one to two inches, yes,
it's going to be for the weekend.
Yes,
it's our first weekend in October and
now you wanna go pick pumpkins may
not be the best weekend to do that.
So battle of the models again for US
rainfall, GFS says not very much.
One to two inches, European says,
hang on, hang on.
It's going to be heavy rain
even West of town,
even toward I 81345 inches of rain.
OK, so we're gonna watch that carefully.
In either scenario,
right now we do not expect any
severe weather because the storm
is going to pass to our S and to
our E so this is 1:00 AM Saturday.
Now this is European model, quiet by time.
We get to Monday at 1:00 o'clock only has,
you know, less than an inch in DC,
higher amounts out to the West of us.
And we get into Tuesday and all of a
sudden boom, 2-3 inches an inch downtown.
So the European model has more rain
here and most of it falling actually Monday.
Into Tuesday morning.
OK.
GFS American model,
12:30 Saturday afternoon, nothing really.
By 12:30 Monday,
not that much less than an inch,
it's green, but you know 3 inches
down to our Patuxent River.
Still could be some big time rains South
of Fredericksburg and into extreme
southern Calvert and southern St.
Mary's County. But again it is
the battle of the models for us.
GFS has very little rain,
Europeans has a lot of rain
with some possible flooding.
We'll keep a close eye on that.
Again, the remnants of Ian make it into the.
Amv over the weekend.