Speaker 1: All right. We're going to look at an incredible contrast that is taking place now
within the Republican Party. In the last segment, we looked at what's going on in the Democratic
Party. Joe Biden approval. Voter sentiment about who should run in 2024. Let's now look at the
Republican Party. We have, on the one hand, a stunning new poll which we will look at,
which shows that half of Republicans are ready to abandon Trump. They want someone else. They're
ready to go. And on the other hand, Donald Trump is still the most popular Republican.
And every indication is that if there is a contested Republican primary involving Donald
Trump, it's going to be absolutely and utterly insane. So let's start with the first piece. First
half of Republican voters are ready to abandon Donald Trump. Far from consolidating his support,
writes The New York Times. The former president appears weakened in his party, especially with
younger and college educated Republicans. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida is the most popular
alternative. And that's something, you know, if you've been watching the show because we've been
talking about it. As Donald Trump weighs whether to open an unusually early White House campaign,
that very same New York Times Siena poll, which we cited earlier in terms of Joe Biden and Democratic
voters, shows that Trump's post-presidential quest to consolidate support within the GOP has left him
weakened. Nearly half of the party's primary voters seek someone different for president
in 2024, and a significant number are vowing to abandon Trump if he wins the nomination.
Trump appears to have deepened fault lines among Republicans during his year long revenge tour.
A clear majority of primary voters under 3560 4%, as well as 65% of those with at least a college
degree. A leading indicator of preferences in the donor class told pollsters they would
vote against Trump in a presidential primary. Reasons include Trump's conduct on January 6th.
Overall, Trump maintains his primacy in the party. In a hypothetical matchup against five other
Republican presidential rivals, 49% of primary voters say they would support him for a third
nomination. So we're going to we're going to get more into that in a moment. But here are some of
these interesting numbers. So if a Republican 2024 primary were held today, who would you vote for?
49% say Donald Trump. 51% say someone else. But as you can see, no individual alternative
gets more than 25%. And that, to a great degree, tells us a lot about the potential dynamics of a
very fractured 2024 Republican primary. And we are going to get to that now. Some interesting
demographic numbers. Trump does much better, significantly better, notably better with
men rather than women, 52 versus 45. And Trump does significantly better with those who
have no college degree. In fact, among those with a college degree, Trump loses two to Sanders 32
to 28. But among those with no college degree, Trump more than doubles. Ron DeSantis 58 to 21.
Those are extraordinarily notable and interesting numbers. Now, one other aspect to this
is that DeSantis has not run for president before. And so when you look at, you know, Cruz is polling
roughly 7% in this particular poll. Mike Pence is polling between five and ten, depending
on which demographic group. These are known entities. DeSantis is not as known. And in fact,
a quarter of Republicans said they don't even have an opinion of DeSantis yet because they don't know
enough about him. Those who know who DeSantis is really like him. Unfortunately, a quarter don't,
but that's actually a really good thing for Ron DeSantis because it suggests, at least
theoretically, that as more Republicans come to know DeSantis, he may be influential in getting
people over to his side. And later in today's show, we have a voicemail that asks sort of an
important question about DeSantis versus Trump. A, should DeSantis and Trump face off in a primary?
The poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial. And this could be you know,
I think it is fair to say that at this point Fox News has been weakened from its prior strength
and it has in part been weakened because of competitors like Newsmax and others. It's in
part been weakened because Donald Trump has been significantly antagonistic to Fox News
over the last year and a half. But Trump holds a 62 to 26 advantage over DeSantis among Fox News
viewers. But among Floridians, it's 16 points closer if they use a different primary source
of news. If you don't watch Fox, you're much less likely to support Trump over the Santos. And that
would be a really a really critical thing. So half of Republicans, again, with all of these things,
you can look at it glass half full or glass half empty, depending on who you are. One perspective
would be half of Republicans want someone other than Trump. That's not particularly good
for a former president. On the other hand, Trump doubles every other potential competitor right now
and would easily win a primary if it were to be held today.
And you can decide for yourself which of those two perspectives is more relevant or more valid. And
that is The New York Times poll. Let's now go and talk about what the primary dynamics could be