Let’s talk about the fighting in Ethiopia.
The government’s launched a military offensive
in the north in a region called Tigray.
At the centre of it all is Ethiopia’s prime minister
a Nobel Peace Prize winner.
He would know.
Abiy used to be a soldier
who now has another fight on his hands.
So how did the fighting start?
And what is this conflict really about?
Ethiopia is a huge country
with many ethnic groups and political parties.
Governing them has at times been difficult
for the central government in Addis Ababa.
There have been a few years of economic growth
and relative calm.
Now, though, things are starting to heat up.
Here’s why.
Ethiopia is divided into 10 regions.
They loosely represent different ethnic groups.
Each one has some autonomy
but the centre of power is in Ethiopia’s capital.
Tigray, where most of the fighting has been happening
is in the north.
The government there is called the TPLF.
And it even has its own regional army.
The TPLF wasn’t just in charge of the Tigray region.
It pretty much ran the country for nearly 30 years
even though the Tigrayans are a minority
just 6% of the population.
The TPLF was the head of a coalition of regional parties.
But many people saw it as autocratic and dysfunctional.
They locked up hundreds of journalists
and political dissidents.
Massive protests eventually brought them down.
The chaos allowed Abiy Ahmed, a young leader
seen as a visionary, to get elected.
He’s from the Oromo
Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group.
Abiy even won a Nobel Prize for making peace
with Eritrea next door.
For as long as the TPLF was in power
Ethiopia was involved in a border standoff with Eritrea.
So they didn’t appreciate Abiy’s new friendship
with the Eritrean president.
So here’s Prime Minister Abiy with a Nobel Prize
and all these ambitious ideas about how to keep the peace
in Ethiopia and modernise the economy.
Part of his plan was to disband the old governing coalition
and unify the country under a new Prosperity Party.
But some, including the TPLF, saw that as taking power
from the regions.
They also saw it as a power grab by Abiy.
The TPLF pulled out completely.
And they’re accused of doing all kinds of things
to sabotage Abiy’s success.
Abiy Ahmed removed members of the TPLF
from top positions.
Many were arrested and prosecuted for corruption
and abuse of power.
So Abiy Ahmed, who at 44 is Africa’s youngest leader
made a lot of enemies really quick.
Two years ago someone even tried to assassinate him.
So that brings us to what’s happening now.
Back in March Abiy’s government
postponed elections because of the pandemic.
But in September the TPLF held one anyway.
That escalated things.
The parliament called the vote illegal.
The TPLF said it didn’t recognise Abiy
as a legitimate leader.
And TPLF forces attacked a government military base.
So Abiy sent in troops and it all blew up from there.
Now this is where we’d show you footage of the war
but we just don’t have much.
The government has cut Tigray off
the roads, the airport and the internet.
So here’s what we’re hearing.
We know the government is launching air strikes.
The TPLF has launched rocket attacks of its own
even across Tigray’s borders.
Soldiers on both sides are being killed.
Civilians too.
We’re just not sure how many.
Thousands of people have been forced
to leave their homes.
Many are crossing into Sudan.
And we’re already hearing reports of terrible violence
though we can’t independently verify them.
Amnesty International is investigating potential
war crimes including hundreds of people
reportedly hacked to death.
The other worry is that this war could
spread and drag in other countries.
And it’s kind of already happening.
The TPLF says its old enemy Eritrea has sent troops
to help Ethiopian government forces — which Eritrea denies.
Whatever’s happening the point is the TPLF sees Eritrea
and Abiy Ahmed as being on the same side.
Which could explain why the TPLF has now
turned on its neighbour.
So what do Ethiopians think of what’s going on?
Some support the offensive on Tigray.
These people for instance are donating blood
for wounded soldiers.
Abiy’s supporters feel he had no choice but to act
because they say the TPLF undermined him at every turn
and stirred up ethnic violence.
But other Ethiopians say the prime minister
isn’t living up to his promises.
And that instead of pursuing peace he’s chosen war.
In a lot of ways this is a battle between
the old guard and the new.
The TPLF started this fight
but now it’s about how it’s going to end.
Whatever Abiy did to earn his Nobel Peace Prize
he’ll be feeling the pressure to do it again.
This story is moving fast
and there's a lot happening in Ethiopia, not just in Tigray.
We have a lot of reporters in the region
covering the story so make sure to visit aljazeera.com
to get the very latest.
We’ll see you next week.