The one of the reasons that the US Mint is not getting plan, sheds is
because there aren't enough for them to get that.
The rest of the market is now buying where the u.s.
mint used to buy.
And so now they don't have as much available and that's one of the
reasons for which we're not seeing American Eagles produced as much
now.
Yeah, gold and silver up, which is nice to have.
And I think that may be on the labor report that came out today.
First Friday of the month, you always get the non-farm payrolls report
and it was a little bit mixed.
So I think the market some of the market may see it as being - sudden,
they see it as being positive and I'll just go over the numbers.
We had two hundred, sixty one thousand jobs created.
It was lower than last month at their inner 15,000, but higher than
Economist expectations at
205,000 and industries that have recovered from that are not the ones
that were most affected by the pandemic.
We now see started to see growth in healthcare industry which had a
fifty three thousand jobs.
Professional businesses, 43,000 manufacturing added 32,000, which
anytime we see more manufacturing.
The u.s.
I'd say that's generally pretty good because we probably just need
more manufacturing.
So that is so overall non-farm payrolls.
Probably a tad better than created, but
Not as good as previous periods.
So that may be playing a little bit into the gold and silver movement.
Also, at the same time, the stock markets are up just a tad.
Dow, Jones is up now.
I think 81 points SNP up, so I think each of the markets is
interpreting the non-farm payrolls.
The way they want to the gold sector.
Probably saying, well, it's not as robust as we thought.
Where's the stock market saying?
Yeah, but it's better than it could have been.
So I think we're in the middle.
And so I don't think that this means, big rise or big fall and any of
the
Markets, but I think that's probably the main thing that people are
digesting today because it's probably the single biggest data point
that will come out during the month of people will trade off of and
look at.
Yeah, so I'm looking at the metal depository statistics as published
by the CME Group for gold.
And for silver, for our American exchanges, which is, you know, where
the spot price is set and seems to be the place where everybody look
to for what's going on and the derivatives trade.
But also, if you look under the hood that physical,
So as I'm looking at these deliver reports total register gold ounces
right now.
11 million 331,000.
If you had registered pledged knowledgeable together, it's 24 million.
When I first started doing these reports every week, gold was it 36
million combined.
So we're 12 million is come off.
The exchange in about two years quite a bit and the registered
category led me into lowest.
I've seen it since I've been covering it if I move over to silver
stocks and these are, as of yesterday's date, the latest one published
total registered silver 30 for me.
Announces, total combined.
Auto tuner 99.
When I first started covering a couple years ago every week, silver
was at 37 million ounces, registered and combined total about 365.
So, we're seeing a runoff on Comics, if you look at London, it's even
more dire looking at the London numbers and I actually downloaded the
the spreadsheet.
I'm going to put that on my program, once I get all that done.
But the silver numbers have fallen off a cliff.
I mean, it wasn't, but a few months ago, they were over a billion
ounces of silver in the London market, and now they're sitting down.
About 850, may not.
So silver is coming off.
All of them.
That's sort of the official data from the two big exchanges.
And I will add in a point.
I've started covering a Shanghai.
When I do my weekly Market updates, the Shanghai for their September
data.
Seventy seven point two, five percent of their contracts were
delivered in physical.
Okay, less than a percent sometimes, less than a tenth of a percent,
is ever delivered on the comex.
So the Shanghai is a much higher physical delivery market and their
gold prices are higher and
Getting a lot of trade.
And so, I think what we're saying is this movement of gold
specifically from the Western to the Eastern markets where it's more
physically traded and people can get access to it.
And I do think that there has been a runoff more in silver, but it's
starting to have a little bit in Gold to off of the exchanges.
And one anecdotal note, I'll give you.
And this is anecdotal is indirect, that was told to me, but a friend
of mine that I trust been the history for a long time.
Told me yesterday, the sunshine meant used to provide most of the
tanks of the plant shots for the American Eagle.
They Diversified a few years go into selling into the market selling
basically rounds and plane shots into the market.
And the one of the reasons that the u.s.
mint is not getting plan.
Sheds, is because there aren't enough for them to get that.
The rest of the market is now buying where the US Mint used to buy.
And so now they don't have as much available and that's one of the
reasons for which
We're not saying American Eagles produced as much now because he can't
get the stock.
So, that's another sign that the stock may be running thin.
When the US Mint, a major one of the major topics in the world, can't
get stock to do American Eagles.
Probably the most recognized silver government issued coin with the
highest premium event across the world.
You know, that's a sign of logic, we have an inventory issues and
again, that's just anecdotal, but you add that to the data flows that
we're seeing on the major markets and
Add does seem, it does appear to me that with the were running low on
Silver, And if the last data point I'll throw in their silver
Institute data provided by Metals, Focus go to Silver Institute and
look that up.
November every year, they do inventory data on what's put out by the
mines and what's demanded and stocks, four straight years.
We've had less Silver mind than has been used.
And I think that's why, since last year, you've started to see silver
run off.
Of the comics because if you can't get it from the mind, you got to
get it from somewhere.
And that's why you see it coming off the London and the US markets.
And I will say that I think this realization for the retail Market
happened during silver squeeze last year because Elijah is since the
end of January and February 2021, we had silver, squeeze, the physical
stocks have been run off of the major exchanges of the major ETFs like
SLV.
and it appears as though the mitts are having trouble getting stock
and lat, I guess last point I'll give you the
The mints were also last year, buying thousand ounce bars off of the
comex, why the mint's typically get their stock from the miners.
They refine it meant it and it goes out.
They were buying thousands marched straight off the comex.
Why the miners weren't putting out enough.
The comex had the stores they went and bought them.
So everybody all, the data suggests that people are scrambling for
silverware everything, get it, the normal supply chain flow has
shifted
And it's changed.
And as a stocks come down, it seems to indicate that there's not
enough liquid silver available, could somebody be sitting on a big
stockpile and sell in the market?
Sure.
I don't think they're going to do it at said, $20 for sure.
So we could still have some command but I think you'll have to have
higher prices to entice.
Some of those silver holders that may have it mean ounces plus to put
it back in the market.
I think at some point you have to have higher prices because at what
point does the market realize you
Can't get more mine output and silver specifically.
When it takes five to seven years to establish and set one up, and
even hundreds of millions of dollars to get the mind going and the
money's not going the mining sector right now.
It hadn't been really for about 10 years and I'm not just talking gold
and silver.
I'm talking, the whole mining cycle has been underfunded in terms of
expiration, so we're not going to talk impression while we're talking
base metals like copper.
So I expect price inflation across a Commodities complex to continue,
because we're reaching an inflection point, Elijah in which we
Invested in the new stocks that we need.
We have growing economies, we have more demand, we don't have more
Supply.
And so what has to happen is you have to have higher prices to entice
people that hold any of it off the market and higher prices to get
people to fund new exploration.
But that process takes a while.
It's not like you just flip a switch and all of a sudden we have the
metal.
It's not like going to your bullion dealer or calling up miles
Franklin, for example.
And saying, can I have, you know, 900,000 American Eagles like that
big and Eris did.
And 900,000 silver eagles may not exist.
Well we know that Mick can't produce and they're not getting the plane
chats.
We know that the mines aren't putting putting enough silver out.
We know that everybody's writing the comex in London to get it where
you going to get that kind of order.
The price is going to have to rise eventually.
It's just simple supply and demand.
Now the derivative Market which sets the spot prices hasn't figured
that out but they will.
And when they do, you'll see people start to go long and spot price to
rise.
But the spot price is always after the
Call Trade, because they're disconnected.
There's like a wall between them.
Most of the derivative markets, not physical in the western markets,
it's paper.
And until people have that compelling reason to know.
Oh, there's already a shortage.
Oh, then we'll raise the price.
And that's the inefficiency of our markets.
They don't raise the price as we're going into a shortage.
They're going to raise it after a shortage.
So it's going to be this big pop sort of effect.
And that's what frustrates a lot of investors are like, well, we have
the data, we know what's going on, we watch it every day but the
derivatives Traders and they
Isn't a lot of different Financial houses.
They don't pay that much attention it you know, the markets won't pop
there until it's it's blatantly obvious is becoming more obvious and I
think that's why you see a little bit of positivity in the price, but
it will really pop when that silver shortage story really starts to
make mainstream and it's not quite there yet.
The physical does not determine spot and what will happen is the
people that are playing that spot Market are going to, you know, when
they figure out the fiscal situation, they're going to go long because
you're going.
Realize when you have shortages prices must go up until then.
Those guys aren't going to play the market that way and the premiums
frustrate people.
But really, they're a positive sign.
People.
Look at his oh had to pay premiums.
I'm mad.
You know instead of eight to ten dollars for Eagles I want to take
three to four and they say it's like they think that they're paying
having to pay more for rent.
But yes, you are, but that's because demand is so strong and where the
spot Market is so far behind the derivative market so far behind when
you have raising premiums like that, the raising premium is a measure
of the smart money getting in before.
Sort of the less educated derivatives Trader Market money, if you
will.
And so spot takes time to catch up to physical trade, but it gets
there.
But High premiums are a good thing.
People think it's price gouging this, that no no supply and demand for
something.
That's
In shortage and going further in in which the entire world is bidding
it up because of physical demand, the premiums are just telling you,
that's what's going on, it's not unfair, it's supply-demand.
The premiums are a more fair market mechanism than is the spot price.
So the demonization shouldn't be over premiums, it should be over
spot.
Now this would be different if we had a robust, 100 million ounces of,
you know, of extra sitting and comex and there wasn't my supply
shortages and premiums were jacked up.
I'd be the first one to say.
Let's go.
Look at the wholesalers and retailers but we know the story is that we
have shortages, the wholesalers and retailers are the tip of the spear
for the investment space?
You know they see it the industrial and sees it but they're going into
the comex to get deliveries but they don't trade the paper, they're
going for delivery.
So you seen delivery Spike up on the comics?
The last few years.
So, everybody involved in physical is saying we know they're shortages
and see.
over but it's those paper traders that don't and that's why you get
the Divergence between premium and
But like I said, the paper Traders aren't completely stupid when they
get hold and get wind and are convinced that we are in a shortage
condition because you can't have deliveries on comex, or because
nobody's putting physical silver up for settlement of a contract, then
that's when they'll flip long.
But they're not going to flip long until then because they're not the
smart money.