How long until Manchester United are competing for the Premier League title again? Well, despite
clear improvements under Eric Ten Hag, the best estimate is probably two years if all goes well,
possibly three. But if that’s the case, they could have a problem. The age profile of their squad.
Firstly, let’s show our working:
Currently, Manchester City and Arsenal, who are comfortably the two best teams
in the Premier League, are around 15 points ahead of Manchester United in
the Premier League table. Given the respective form of those two sides,
that gap is only likely to increase before the end of the 2022-23 season.
United have also scored some thirty goals fewer than both teams, and conceded around ten more,
and – together – these statistics describe a gap between United and the
top of the table that’s unlikely to close within a single year.
So, that’s the basis for the two, or three-year estimate and,
in this instance, fears over United’s squad demographics.
Now, this was a conversation that happened recently on the Devils in the Details podcast,
hosted by Aaron Moniz and Kees van Hemmen,
and you can find a link to the show in the description below.
They made a point worth investigating. Manchester United have fielded a startling eleven this season
with an average age of 26 years 5 months, which is only the eleventh youngest in the Premier
League. But the ages of some of United’s key players is perhaps more of a troubling issue.
Bruno Fernandes is 28, Casemiro is 31, Raphael Varane is 29, Christian Eriksen is 31, David
De Gea is 32, Luke Shaw is 27, Victor Lindelof is 28 and Harry Maguire is 30, who makes this
list regardless of the current caveats. All of them would be considered important performers,
most of them have been vital, and each of them is also currently within their prime.
But if United are to wait two or three years to become competitive for the title,
then it seems unlikely – given the respective ages of the players – that
many among that key component would still be week-to-week starters.
Of course, Erik ten Hag does have younger players at his disposal and plenty who are
still improving. Lisandro Martinez’s (25) best years are ahead, Antony,
Jadon Sancho and Tyrell Malacia are all 23, and Alejandro Garnacho is still just a teenager.
In three years, those players are likely to be approaching their best rather than be beyond it.
The extent of the issue, however, can be seen in comparison with the clubs United will likely
contend with over the coming season and the respective situations they find themselves in.
At Arsenal, for instance, Mikel Arteta has selected a starting eleven this season with
an average of 24years4months, the joint-lowest in the league.
Of the players who would currently be considered starters at the club,
only Granit Xhaka (30) and Thomas Partey (29) are over the age of 26. Bukayo
Saka (21), Gabriel Jesus (26), Gabriel Martinelli (21, William Saliba (22), Gabriel (25), Aaron
Ramsdale (24) and Ben White (25) are all vital already and only likely to improve,
so too are Martin Odegaard (24), Oleksandr Zinchenko (26) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (24)
Manchester City’s situation isn’t quite as healthy. Actually, their
average starting lineup in the Premier League is two months older than United,
but there’s greater quality in the younger parts of their squad.
Kevin De Bruyne (31), John Stones (28), Ilkay Gundogan (32), Riyad Mahrez (32) and Jack
Grealish (27) are all unlikely to be producing at the same level in three years as they are now.
And yet, in comparison to the situation at Old Trafford, a nucleus of very strong, very young
players is already in place and already reliably producing alongside mid-career first-teamers.
But the main factor is that – at both Arsenal and Manchester City – the
squads are already good enough to challenge for the league and,
in City’s case, in Europe too. Manchester United are not there yet.
It’s also unclear how they would perform during a season with a strong Chelsea or Liverpool,
both of whom are enduring miserable campaigns. Nevertheless, as an immediate priority they
would likely need a new central midfielder and right-back in the summer transfer window,
and probably a centre-forward also. That will be a considerable expense.
On top of which, over the course of the next few years, as many as seven first-teamers
will have to be replaced within a short period of time. The cost is one concern,
but team chemistry is another, as is the ability to manage such a process.
Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes have been crucial to United’s revival, Eriksen,
Shaw and Varane have all come to assume great importance also. These players have
formed the backbone of this recent period and represent whole departments of the United side.
That issue is exacerbated by the fact that dependable back-up players like
Maguire (30) and Lindelof (28), and to an extent Antony Martial (27), also fit into
the older demographic at United and will need to be replaced, or upgraded at around the same time.
Which is to say nothing of the fact that the players still short of their prime – Antony,
Sancho, Malacia, Dalot, Garnacho, Elanga – are yet to conclusively prove that they belong at
the top of the game. Not in the same way that, for instance, Erling Haaland, Phil Foden and
Rodri have, or Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are currently doing.
Not factored in here are of course the unpredictable elements: youth players
who emerge from nowhere, rapid development of previously unheralded players, and unexpected
longevity of existing starters. It’s perfectly possible, for instance, that Casemiro – despite
already being 31 – is able to play well into his thirties and to a very high standard.
Manchester United not only face the prospect of having to replace
10 players over the course of the next two to three years, but ten excellent players,
with ten transfers at a success rate of something approaching 100%. It will have
to be an exceptionally well-handled process if major trophies are to be in their near-future.
If not, then two or three years might be an optimistic timeline for the club
to return to proper contention. Even then, however, it’s likely to be with
a wholly different backbone to the one the side depends on currently.