A winter storm watch still remains in
effect through today and continues as
we'll see it through 5:00 PM Monday in
that pink shade will also expect to see
a lot of that heavy snow above 3000 feet.
That will bring in anywhere from one
to three feet of snow and locally we
could see as much as five feet of snow
in some of the higher peaks there in the
passes could see 60 to 80 inches of snow,
especially for areas like Carson Pass.
Now we are expecting to see that snowball
continue at least through Monday night
and possibly into early Tuesday morning.
Now let's take a closer look here.
This is potential.
For an avalanche,
we're looking at an avalanche watch,
in effect between Yuba Pass all the way
down to about Ebbetts pass this heavy
snow here could be triggered by windfall.
That could cause an avalanche very
dangerous for those areas of Greater
Lake Tahoe until 7:00 AM on Monday.
Or let's talk about this.
This definition of avalanche just
snow moving down a mountain basically
at a high rate of speed.
Now three things we need to know that
could happen with this avalanches.
We're looking at unstable snow.
A lot of the snow moving in is a
mixture here with warmer temperatures,
so we haven't been seeing snow.
Temperatures here with the Sierra
anywhere in those 20s.
We're really looking at highs
in those mid to low 30s,
so a lot of instability when it
comes to wet snow and then of
course you need that slope.
It can slide down on an the trigger.
The trigger in this case would be the wind.
Other times a trigger can be the heat
could be a warm up and then you could
see the slide also occurring there.
An earthquake could be and also
another trigger.
In this case we are looking
at the wind as the trigger.
So let's talk about the wind here.
Wind speeds picking up anywhere from about
15 to 20 mph through and around Tahoe.
Some of the highest peaks so
could see wind even 80 to 100 mph.
I know we was saw some very strong
winds just over about a month ago,
month and a half ago into January
where some of those strong winds
were peeking out over 200 mph.
That was picking up at one of the stations
course that was taking time to get verified,
but they said, you know what?
That very well could have been a real number
that came in in off one of those stations.
But some of these very tall mountains here
are picking up some very strong wind speeds,
and that's also that big
concern for avalanche.
Alright,
we're looking at temperatures
for the Valley here.
It's going to be rather cool,
much cooler than we saw in the week.
We're talking temperatures in
the mid 50s bells.
The winds are going to contribute
to even colder feeling
temperatures, so when you're looking
at winds anywhere from 15 to 20 mph
in the Valley, it's going to feel
a lot colder than those mid 50s.
We're going to start feeling temperatures
closer to even those low 50s to even mid
40s for some spots when you're getting
some of that chill factor in place.
Now, things start to calm down as
we get to Monday night 11:00 PM,
especially for the Sierra,
but this is all due to a upper
level cold core low that moved
in from the Pacific Northwest.
It did it.
Fair share of dumping snow into areas
right around Seattle and Portland,
and then of course,
for their Cascade Range there now
moving into Northern California.
We're looking at snowfall even in
and around I5 from the Coastal Range
area toward the border into Shasta
and then more rainfall for the
Valley spots will see the Coastal
Range snow continuing today and then
more Sierra snowfall before that
low pressure heads its way South
into Southern California by Monday.
We will expect to see more southerly
moisture being pulled into the low
pressure system due to the fact
that it's really drawing in with
the rotation here from the South.
It's bringing a lot more instability,
so now you're getting southerly.
Warmer air moving in with that
upper level cold core.
The breakup of the Clouds here with
some of that instability happening is
going to trigger some also thunderstorm
chances later on this afternoon,
those thunderstorm chances could
lead to higher rain totals,
but at this point if we're only
relying on just this moisture,
it looks like we're going to see
anywhere from a 10th about 1/3
of an inch of rainfall.
Today some spots could see as much
as a half inch near Stockton Modesto,
but with the thunderstorm chances that's
an isolated thunderstorm that could dump.
Even as much as a quarter inch
of rain in some spots.
So that'll add to rain totals.
If we do see thunderstorms now for
the Sierra snowfall continuing today,
that's going to be really adding
up to what we saw yesterday in
terms of snowfall couple inches.
For some spots,
Eric give me a couple of feet for some spots.
Now adding up to even an additional couple
feet for the CR later on through Monday.
Alright, so just yesterday we celebrated
his right around 1/10 of an inch.
We're looking at Marysville .42
about 1/3 of an inch in Fairfield,
often reaching 1/2 inch Mark Placerville.
Not triggering or showing up here.
But we will see about 1/10 of an inch here,
now more in Modesto.
Looking at that temp benchmark.
Half an inch of rainfall.
Already for Sonora.
Now we will see more rain on the way.
With all this rainfall pushing through,
take a look at this as we start to see
more rain moving through for the day ahead.
That will also lead to more snowfall,
especially further South of that systems.
Also moving its way South.
Things begin to clear up again
once again as we move into Monday.
Alright, let's talk about these
rain totals at future rain totals.
I should say Sacramento,
it doesn't look like we're going
to get much more rain we look at.
About 1/10 of an inch possible,
but of course thunderstorm chances.
A possibility could lead
to higher rain totals.
Third of an inch in Rio Vista Half
Inch Pleasant in Stockton and Tracy
looking about 1/2 inch mark of rain
to come and Grass Valley 1/3 of an
inch Auburn 1/4 inch in Placerville.
Looking at that third of in
just a little more than third.
Benchmark there in additional rain to come.
OK so when we're talking snowfall now
2000 and 4000 feet we do expect some of
the passes to accumulate more of the snow.
Of course that led to closures
of the passes just last night.
Overnight hours now.
Reopening today of course needing
chains to get through there and a lot
of spin outs yesterday over the past,
especially Donner and Echo.
Looking at 36 to 48 inches as we
start moving through Monday night
60 to 80 inches expected for Carson
now temperature wise will be right
around these mid 50s for the next
couple of days before we get to
Wednesday here with Sunshine.
Will get back into the 60s at least low
60s before seeing more rain and shower.
Chances that are set to arrive
by the following weekend.