But we begin
this morning with the breaking news
we are now learning.
It was not Russia
that fired a missile into Poland
that killed two people overnight.
Obviously, Russia
Poland is a member of the military
alliance known as Naito.
But instead, initial U.S.
assessments are that it likely came
from Ukrainian forces.
This development comes as NATO's
ambassadors are holding
an emergency meeting this morning
to discuss the deadly explosion.
Kevin Liptak is CNN's
Kevin Love
is live for CNN this morning
in Bali, Indonesia,
where the president just left
a few hours ago.
Kevin, what's your reporting
this morning?
Yeah.
Two officials
who are familiar with an initial U.S.
assessment
say this assessment says that the missile
did not originate in Russia,
but that it originated in Ukraine.
And we do know that Ukraine uses Russian
made missiles in its air defense system.
And it does seem
as if this is what President Biden
was alluding to
when he emerged
after crisis talks here at the G20
and said
that it was unlikely
that this missile originated in Russia.
Of course, he wanted to say that
he wanted to be definitive
he wants to look at
all of the intelligence first
before he can come out and say
with any certainty where
this missile originated.
And I think that's
because of the implications
that are at stake here.
Poland, of course, is a member of Naito.
You have Article five,
which is the Common Defense Treaty.
An attack against one
is an attack against all.
And certainly President Biden
and other Western leaders
want to be absolutely sure
that they know
where this missile originated
before they come out
and say so definitively.
Now, we do know that this assessment
was a topic of discussion
among the leaders
when President Biden
convened them at his hotel here in Bali.
Members of the G7,
some members of NATO's states.
We also understand
that it will be discussed in Brussels
today as Naito members
begin talking about a way forward,
talking about this analysis Now, what
National Security Council spokesman said
is that the U.S.
will support
Poland's ongoing investigation
and this is still being investigated.
They're sort of breaking out
the pieces of this missile,
putting it back together,
trying to figure out where it came from.
We also heard from an adviser
to the Ukrainian
president, Volodymyr Zelensky,
who did not deny reports
that this missile
originated in Ukraine,
but essentially said
that any casualties in
this were our responsibility of Russia
because it began this conflict.
Great reporting, Kevin Love.
Thank you.
All right.
Now, let's bring in our colleague
Matthew Chance.
He is live for CNN this morning
in the Polish village of shaved off
for the blast happened.
Matthew I wonder this morning.
Have you heard from Polish officials
since we have learned that news
that this missile likely
originated in Ukraine
Not not this morning.
So far, though,
we are expecting a statement
over the next few minutes
after the
president and the prime
minister of the country formulate
what their latest position is.
Of course, there's been high level
meetings taking place in the country.
You can see behind me
is a Polish military vehicles
heading to the same of the explosion
of that missile
where those two people
were killed, Polish.
This is, of course, on Polish territory
because there's an ongoing investigation
underway on the ground
which is likely to include
experts from the United States as well,
although it's not clear
whether they've actually arrived yet.
They may have.
The police told me there's
lots of people on the scene,
which is a few hundred yards
away from where we're allowed to go.
The road's been blocked off.
But it is, as Kevin
was saying in his last report,
and it is so crucial for the poles
the night our alliance,
to get to the bottom
of who actually fired this missile,
because if it was the Russians
and the Russians
categorically deny it,
that's one course of action.
That's potentially
and potentially a very serious one,
given the Article
five of the NATO's treaty,
which means an attack on one
alliance member
is an attack on all of them.
And if it's the Ukrainians,
as is possible,
that's a very different
set of consequences.
I think you have to remember the context
in which this missile strike
or this explosion actually took place.
It was at a time
when there were nearly 100
cruise missiles
being fired
at various targets inside
Ukraine by the Russians
and the Ukrainians, Ukrainians
desperately trying to intercept them
with their Russian made interceptors.
So you can easily
see how it could have been the Russians
or the Ukrainians
that are responsible for this.
You certainly can.
Matthew Chance, a
thank you so much to you and your team
there in that village, Don.
So let's get some analysis
on all of this.
Want to bring in now retired U.S.
Army Major Mike Lyons.
Good morning to you.
Thank you so much for joining.
Was a very simple question.
Was it a mistake
Yeah,
it looks like it's a terrible mistake
because of the Ukraine air
defense platform.
So they're deployed in depth across
Ukraine in such a way
to protect the major cities
and infrastructure
and what happened
is for the past
24 hours, Russia has been firing
hundreds of missiles in here.
And as one gets close
to leave here, for example,
one of these
air defense systems is a chaser
Hits it from behind,
likely gets it close to the border
and then pushes that debris
right over the border.
It's only four kilometers,
so it's not the target.
Makes no sense from Russia's perspective.
Again, you look at
what happened on the ground.
It looks like it was remnants from air
defense systems
having been there in Lviv.
I mean, this is pretty close
to the Polish border
as a way that most people come into
the country.
Now, because it usually
they would go into
possibly going to Russia.
But now this is really far west
for this to happen.
Rockets are going this far
into Ukraine now. Yeah.
And a lot of it has to do with the fact
that Russian troops
yeah,
Russian troops have deployed
in this area
here to save them
from a tactical perspective.
So strategically,
now you're going to see long
range bombing,
long range missile attacks into the West,
knowing that's
where the supply lines are.
Infrastructure is that the Ukraine
is looking to have a very tough winter.
Russia is going to try
to turn the lights on
to analyze out of Ukraine
and give them as much hardship
as they can,
really terrorist type attacks here.
So then the next question is now what?
Now what happens?
Because Russia will obviously use this
for propaganda Right.
So so Naito
looks like they're going
to have an article for which
we'll have a meeting to discuss it,
not Article five.
Article five would be an escalation.
We want to do that.
I think NATO's going to come up
with a better political solution.
Here, possibly give Ukraine
more weapons,
knowing full
well that they're going to need help
in this wintertime
as Russia has dug in at this point, maybe
longer range attack missiles themselves
the problem is
we haven't given them in the past
because we don't want those missiles
to be fired inside of Russia.
We want to give them
that kind of capacity.
So Article four is basically
to meet and discuss this.
Article five is actually
when there is some action
taken in Article five, right.
The NATO's members would decide
what to do. It still doesn't trigger war.
It doesn't
necessarily mean
it's not an automatic world war three.
It means some countries of response.
Article five has been triggered
only once.
September 12th, 2001,
the day after nine 11
when the countries got together decided.
And what they did
was they put an air force squadron
together in order to respond.
That was it.
So as we look at
this, is the new information,
what Article four is and what happens.
But again, that is
there's no official
calling for Article four.
They're just
looking into the possibility.
And that's just a meeting
to discuss, right.
Article for the meeting.
And it'll be political pressure
on Poland not to go.
Article five.
So then what happens in Zelinski now?
How does what is
how is he going to respond to this?
Well, I mean, he's going to continue
to have strong rhetoric
with regard to this war.
He wants more support
from the West that keeps coming.
And Western countries
have got to again
decide maybe this meeting will determine
and within Article four will determine
that he will get more support.
He still needs to figure out a way
how he's going
to get through this winter.
That's the kind of helping he's
going to say, even though it was
you know,
it was a sad consequence of the war
and therefore,
we still need your help with this.
He absolutely better air
defense platforms in some ways.
When you saw the damage on the ground,
there were the older
RUSSIAN-MADE air defense systems.