OF
OF FAMER
OF FAMER TO DIE THIS YEAR HE WAS EIGHTY ONE YEARS OLD WHEN THE BASEBALL HALL OF FAME MEETS
AGAIN IN TWENTY TWENTY ONE.
AT LEAST TWO FORMER CARDINALS
WILL BE ENSHRINED.
LARRY WALKER AND TED SIMMONS
ARE BOTH WELD'S SERVING AND
OFTEN OVERLOOKED IN THEIR
GREATNESS.
THERE'S ANOTHER FORMER CARDINAL
WHO FALLS INTO THAT SAME
CATEGORY TWO ARE COREY MILLER
BREAKS DOWN THE HALL OF FAME
CASE FOR SCOTT ROLEN AND HOW
ADVANCED STATISTICS TAKE HIS
CAREER TO THE NEXT LEVEL TWO O
DELIVERY SWING AND A DRIVE FAIL
FOR SCOTT GOT PLAY.
>> YOU KNEW YOU WERE WATCHING
SOMETHING SPECIAL BUT WHY ARE
WE WATCHING A HALL OF FAMER
ROLE IS THE HALL OF FAME BALLOT
FOR THE FOURTH TIME THIS YEAR
AND HAS NEVER RECEIVED MORE
THAN THIRTY FIVE POINT THREE
PERCENT OF THE VOTE TO THIS
POINT HE NEEDS SEVENTY FIVE
PERCENT TO GET IN BUT THAT
COULD ALL BE ABOUT TO CHANGE
FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS BECAUSE
WHEN YOU START TO DIG DEEPER
SOMETHING BECOMES EVIDENTLY
CLEAR.
LOOK AT THE CAREER NUMBERS AS A
FULL YEAR OVER 300 HOME RUNS
YOU'RE OVER 500 DOUBLES AND
THEN FACTOR IN THE DEFENSE AS
ONE OF THE GREATEST DEFENSIVE
THIRD BASEMAN OF ALL TIME.
I CAN'T BELIEVE WE'RE EVEN
HAVING THIS CONVERSATION.
>> THAT'S AUTHOR AND BASEBALL'S
STATISTICS SAVANT RYAN SPADER
AND YEP, THIS IS YOUR WARNING.
WE'RE ABOUT TO TALK NUMBERS BUT
DON'T WORRY WE WON'T GET TOO
INTO THE WEEDS HERE.
LET'S START WITH THE ANALYTICAL
ANGLE THOUGH.
FIRST WE'LL START WITH AN EASY
ONE.
NO ONE HAS THE 10TH HIGHEST WAR
OF ANY THIRD BASEMAN IN
BASEBALL HISTORY.
ALL OF THOSE AHEAD OF HIM ARE
ALREADY IN THE HALL OF FAME
EXCEPT FOR ADRIAN BELTRAME WHO
WILL GET THERE WHEN ELIGIBLE
FOR OR WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT
ESSENTIALLY MEASURES HOW GOOD A
PLAYER WAS COMPARED TO AN MLB
AVERAGE PLAYER ENROLLING HIS
TENTH BEST AT HIS POSITION EVEN
WITH HIS INJURY HISTORY NOW A
LITTLE MORE ADVANCED LET'S TALK
DEFENSIVE RUN SAVE FOR HE
REALLY SHINES DEFENSIVE RUNS
SAVE COMPILES MULTIPLE
STATISTICS TO TRY AND DETERMINE
HOW MANY RUNS AN INDIVIDUAL
DEFENDER SAVED.
LET SPADER EXPLAIN JUST HOW
MUCH ROLEN OWNS THIS CATEGORY.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT GROUPS
OF NUMBERS RIGHT DEFENSIVE RUNS
SAVED SCOTT ROLEN REX 13TH ALL
TIME OUT OF NINETEEN THOUSAND
NINE HUNDRED TWO PLAYERS IN
DEFENSIVE RUNS SAVED IN HIS
THIRD AMONG THIRD BASEMAN
BEHIND HALL OF FAMER BROOKS
ROBINSON AND BEHIND WHO WILL BE
A FIRST BALLOT HALL OF FAMER
ADRIAN BELTRAN.
>> SO LIKE IN THE CASES
OF WALKER AND SIMMONS AS
BASEBALL BEGINS TO WARM UP TO
ADVANCE ANALYTICS FROM LOOKS
BETTER AND BETTER AS A
CANDIDATE.
BUT THAT'S NOT ALL THAT SHOULD
BE WORKING IN HIS FAVOR.
OVER THE YEARS THE HALL OF FAME
HAS BEEN UNBELIEVABLY STINGY IN
ELECTING THIRD BASEMAN JUST
BECAUSE OF PLAYER.
IS IT MIKE SCHMIDT OR GEORGE
BRETT?
DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN
THEY'RE NOT A WORTHY HALL
OF FAMER BBWAA WHO HAS BEEN
VOTING FOR THE HALL OF FAME
SINCE NINETEEN THIRTY NINE, HAS
ONLY EVER INDUCTED SEVEN THIRD
BASEMAN ONE THIRD BASEMAN EVERY
TWELVE YEARS YOU'RE NOT EVEN
YET ONE A DECADE OR SO THIRD
BASEMAN OR UNDERREPRESENTED
HOPEFULLY THE VOTERS BEGIN TO
AMEND THAT TREND AND THEY
CERTAINLY COULD ON THIS BALLOT
AFTER BEING CLUTTERED FOR A
WHILE THERE'S SOME BREATHING
ROOM ON THIS YEAR'S BALLOT AND
GUYS THAT NEED MORE LOVE LIKE
ROLIN COULD BE ADDED TO LOTS
OF WRITERS LISTS.
>> AND SPADER SAYS 50 PERCENT
IS THE KEY NUMBER ONLY FIVE
PLAYERS IN HISTORY TO GET FIFTY
PERCENT HAVE YET TO MAKE IT IN
AT SOME POINT AND FOUR IS STILL
CURRENTLY ON THE BALLOT REALLY
SEE THE JUMP TO THAT FIFTY
PERCENT THRESHOLD AND AGAIN I
JUST ABSOLUTELY THINK IT'S A
LOCK THAT IF YOU GET THAT FIFTY
PERCENT ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU'RE
NOT SOMEBODY WHO HAS THAT
CONTROVERSY THAT BARRY BONDS OR
ROGER CLEMENS HAS OR I GUESS
EVEN CURT SCHILLING TECHNICALLY
HAS CONTROVERSY TO YOU'RE GONNA
GET YOURSELF INTO THE HALL
OF FAME WHILE JUMPING ALL THE
WAY TO SEVENTY FIVE PERCENT
THIS YEAR SEEMS UNLIKELY.
>> THE FORMER CARDINALS GREAT
IS TRENDING UP WITH SIX MORE
YEARS ON THE WRITERS BALLOT WHO
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE THE DAY
SCOTT ROELAND GETS TO
COOPERSTOWN IN ST. LOUIS.
COREY MILLER FIVE ON YOUR SIDE
SPORTS NICE WORK CORE.
>> I'D LOVE TO SEE IT.
SPADER ACTUALLY TALK WITH ROLE
RECENTLY AND HE SAID IT'S HIS
KIDS WHO ARE