>>RUSSIA HAS CONFIRMED THAT AS OF TODAY THEY HAVE LAUNCHED
AIRSTRIKES IN SYRIA AGAINST ISIS FORCES.
THIS IS ACCORDING TO
RUSSIA, IT IS AGAINST ISIS FORCES.
IT MAY NOT BE WHAT THEY
ARE SAYING IT IS.
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN SAYS THAT HE IS
PORTRAYING AIRSTRIKES -- THAT IS WHAT HE IS DOING -- AS A
PREEMPTIVE ATTACK AGAINST ISLAMIC MILITANTS WHO HAVE TAKEN
OVER LARGE PARTS OF SYRIA AND IRAQ.
TO THE EXTENT THAT THAT IS
WHAT HE'S DOING, THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT IS OKAY WITH IT,
LARGELY.
WE WOULD PROBABLY PREFER IF THEY WERE NOT
INVOLVED, BUT IF THEY ARE ATTACKING ISIS WE SAY WE ARE IN
FAVOR OF IT, OR AT LEAST THE GOVERNMENT IS.
HE WENT ON TO SAY
IF THEY, THE MILITANTS, SUCCEED IN SYRIA, THEY WILL RETURN TO
THEIR HOME COUNTRY AND THEY WILL COME TO RUSSIA.
WHICH IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.
I IMAGINE IT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED, A FEW
PROBABLY HAVE GONE TO RUSSIA.
RUSSIA IS NOT IMMUNE TO MUSLIM
TERRORISM IN THE PAST, OF A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT VARIETY.
BUT
IT IS NOT CRAZY HE WOULD THINK THAT IS HAPPENING.
IS THAT ACTUALLY
WHY THEY MOVED INTO SYRIA?
THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE CASE
NECESSARILY, AND WE WILL SHOW YOU SOME REASONS WE BELIEVE
THAT, BUT WHAT IS YOUR INITIAL REACTION TO THE ESCALATION
BETWEEN A FEW WEEKS AGO, RUSSIA MOVING FORCES IN, TAKING CONTROL
OF SOME BASES -ñ THEY ALREADY HAD CONTROL OF SOME --
AND ALREADY LAUNCHING AIRSTRIKES?
>>IT IS INTERESTING BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS ASSAD SAID EARLIER
IN THE DAY IS THAT IN CONTRAST TO THE UNITED STATES AND FRANCE,
WHO DON'T HAVE A MANDATE FROM THE UNITED NATIONS, RUSSIA HAS
BEEN SPECIFICALLY REQUESTED BY SYRIA.
THE IMPLICATION THERE IS
THAT HIS ATTACKS ARE LEGAL, THE RUSSIAN ATTACKS ARE LEGAL, AND
ANYBODY ELSE'S ARE NOT.
ALSO HE HAS TRODDEN ON U.S.
TOES AGGRESSIVELY --
>>PUTIN OR ASSAD?
>>PUTIN, HE HAS SAID WHEN WE ARE IN THE AIR, YOU AMERICANS NEED
TO BACK OFF.
YOU NEED TO STAY OUT OF THE AREA.
THAT IS A
UNILATERAL DECISION.
IF IT WAS TO BE A COORDINATED APPROACH, I
THINK THAT WOULD BE ONE THING.
CLEARLY WHAT THIS IS IS A
UNILATERAL ATTEMPT, AND AN ATTEMPT BY PUTIN, TO BOLSTER HIS
BUDDY ASSAD AND STRENGTHEN HIS POSITION IN THE REGION AND
REASSERT RUSSIA'S POSITION AS A WORLD POWER.
>>THEY HAVE WANTED A SHOWCASE FOR THEIR MILITARY POWER, WHICH
THEY HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD WHERE IT
HAS BEEN MOSTLY AMERICA IN THE SPOTLIGHT, AND TO SOME EXTENT
CHINA WITH THEIR GRANDSTANDING, AND THIS PROVIDES THAT FOR THEM.
>> THIS IS A BATTLE OF LIARS HERE.
I SUSPECT THAT WE ARE
LYING LESS, BECAUSE THEY ARE BETTER AT IT.
THEY ARE SEASONED
LIARS.
AND THE FACT THAT THERE WAS NO EFFORT IN ANY WAY TO, AS
ELLIOTT SAID, NO EFFORT TO WORK WITH THE U.S.-LED COALITION AT
ALL -- IF YOU ARE REALLY INTERESTED IN GETTING ISIS
TARGETS THEN YOU WOULD WORK WITH THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY DOING
THAT.
AND SINCE WE KNOW THAT THIS IS REALLY ASSAD'S ONLY
POWERFUL ALLY, I SUSPECT WHAT ASSAD WAS FEARING IS THAT --
THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS IN HERE, WHICH IS THAT THEY ARE MAKING A
LITTLE BIT TOO MUCH PROGRESS WITH ISIS, WHICH WILL LEAVE JUST
ME AND THE REBELS.
SO LET'S HAMMER THE REBELS.
IT IS CLEAR WHAT THEY ARE DOING, THE PROBLEM IS WHEN ASHTON
KUTCHER, THE UNITED STATES SECRETARY OF DEFENSE, WHICH
WAS STRANGE --
>>I DID NOT EVEN KNOW HE HAD BEEN GIVEN THAT HONOR.
>>ASHTON CARTER.
ASH CARTER, HE IS BEING REFERRED TO, I REMEMBER
THAT DURING HIS CONFIRMATION.
HE PROCEEDS TO LAY OUT A CASE AS TO WHY THEY ARE LYING.
>>DUDE, WHERE'S MY EVIDENCE?
>>I AM PREDISPOSED IN NO WAY TO BELIEVE ANYTHING WE SAY HERE.
>>CERTAINLY NOT WHAT HE IS SAYING.
>>BUT IN THIS CASE WHAT WE ARE SAYING SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.
RUSSIA WILL NOT DO ANYTHING IN THERE THAT DOES
NOT HELP ASSAD.
AND THE THING THAT HELPS HIM THE MOST RIGHT
NOW WOULD BE THE KILLING OF NON-ISIS REBELS.
>>WHY DON'T WE TALK ABOUT THE EVIDENCE NOW?
SYRIAN STATE
TELEVISION QUOTED AN UNNAMED MILITARY OFFICIAL AS SAYING THAT
RUSSIAN WARPLANES HAVE TARGETED I.S.
POSITIONS IN CENTRAL SYRIA,
AND AREAS NEAR HAMA PROVINCE.
THAT IS ACCORDING TO SYRIAN
SOURCES, USING UNNAMED POTENTIALLY RUSSIAN SOURCES,
A LITTLE SUSPECT.
GENEVIEVE CASAGRANDE OF THE INSTITUTE OF
THE STUDY OF WAR SAID THAT THE AIRSTRIKE DID NOT HIT ISIS
MILITANTS AND RESULTED IN CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
BRING UP
THIS MAP, IT WILL SHOW YOU WHERE THE AIRSTRIKES HAPPENED.
YOU
WILL SEE A BREAKDOWN OF THE ACTUAL -- IT IS IN THE GREEN,
THE REBEL-CONTROLLED AREAS.
THEY DID GO A LITTLE BIT INTO THE
REGIME-CONTROLLED AREAS, BUT THEY ARE NOWHERE NEAR WHERE ISIS
IS CURRENTLY OPERATING.
IT SEEMS PRETTY CLEAR.
A U.S. DEFENSE
OFFICIAL OPERATING ON ANONYMITY SAID, WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
STRIKES AGAINST ISIL, WE HAVE SEEN STRIKES AGAINST SYRIAN
OPPOSITION.
TO WHAT EXTENT IT IS THE SYRIAN REBEL GROUPS, TO WHAT
EXTENT IT IS CIVILIANS OR SOME EXTRA THEREOF, IT DEFINITELY
SEEMS LIKE RUSSIA IS COMPLETELY MISCHARACTERIZING THEIR CURRENT
MISSION STATEMENT.
IT IS INTERESTING.
I DON'T REALLY KNOW
WHAT PUTIN'S ENDGAME IS.
IF IT IS SABER RATTLING, IF IT IS TO
FACILITATE PULLING FOCUS FROM THE UKRAINE AND TO REASSERT HIS
ASCENDANCY AS A WORLD PLAYER IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WHERE IS HE
GOING TO GO?
BECAUSE IF HE IS GOING AFTER ISIL, IS HE GOING TO
BE ANY MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN THE CURRENT PROGRAM OF DRONE STRIKES
AND ATTACKS THAT HAVE BEEN GOING ON?
AND IF NOT, THEN WHAT IS HIS
PURPOSE?
MY OTHER SUSPICION IS THAT HE HAS UPSET THE AMERICANS
AND JOHN KERRY FAR MORE THAN HE HAS ANTICIPATED BY DOING THIS.
I
THINK THE REACTION FROM THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND POINTED AND CONDEMNING THAN HE THOUGHT.
>>JOHN KERRY ALREADY SAID WE WOULD HAVE GRAVE CONCERNS OF IT TURNED
OUT THAT HE WAS GOING IN THERE TO ATTACK THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION.
>>I DON'T KNOW QUITE WHERE HE'S GOING WITH IT, OTHER THAN --
>>PROPPING UP AN ALLY.
>> IT IS A BRILLIANT MOVE IN LOTS OF WAYS
FROM HIS POINT OF VIEW, BUT I DON'T KNOW IN TERMS OF THE
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM GAIN WHAT HE WILL GET OUT OF IT OTHER THAN
PISSING EVERYBODY OFF AND SHORING UP A DESPOT WHO THE REST
OF THE WORLD CONDEMNS.
>> MY VIEW IS SYRIA IS CURRENTLY ONE OF THE EASIEST, MOST DIRECT
ROUTES IF YOU WANTED TO GO INTO EITHER EUROPE OR RUSSIA,
POSSIBLY.
IT IS AN AREA OF CHAOS, CHAOTIC BORDERS, THAT
ISIS AND RELATED GROUPS COULD USE TO GET THROUGH.
SO ALLOWING
ASSAD TO REGAIN CONTROL OF THE AREA IS SOMETHING THEY COULD DO.
>> IF HE SENSED WEAKNESS THERE, OR POTENTIAL TERRORIST THREATS
THROUGH ISIS TO RUSSIA, THEN FROM THEIR POINT OF VIEW, WE ARE
HAMSTRUNG BECAUSE WE THINK, WE CAN'T SUPPORT ASSAD.
WE CAN'T
JUST POUR MILITARY AND WEAPONS AND PROP UP HIS REGIME, THAT IS
NOT WHAT WE WANT TO DO.
THEY DON'T CARE.
THEY HAVE NO BEEF
DOING THAT, WHICH WOULD MAKE AT LEAST HIS CLAIM MODERATELY HALF
LEGITIMATE.
WHICH IS NOT THAT I AM PROPPING UP ASSAD, BUT I AM
WORRIED ABOUT ISIS AND THIS IS THE BEST WAY, I DON'T CARE IF
YOU LIKE THEM, I LIKE THEM.
BUT ONE OF THE MANY THINGS THAT
COULD HAPPEN WHEN YOU SORT OF HAVE A, YOU KNOW, AND I DON'T
EVEN KNOW IF IT WAS THE WRONG POLICY, BUT IT WAS CERTAINLY AN
ILL-DEFINED, SCATTERSHOT, UNCLEAR FOREIGN-POLICY IN SYRIA --
>>FROM THE U.S. POINT OF VIEW?
>>YES, WHICH LEFT GAPING HOLES FOR A POWER VACUUM TO BE
FILLED, AND PUTIN WAS LIKE, I'LL DO IT.
>>CURRENTLY IT SEEMS LIKE THEY SAY IT WILL BE LIMITED
AIRSTRIKES.
PUTIN SAID WE WILL NOT PLUNGE HEAD ON INTO THIS
CONFLICT.
FIRST WE WILL BE SUPPORTING THE SYRIAN ARMY
PURELY IN ITS LEGITIMATE FIGHT WITH TERRORIST GROUPS.
SECOND, THIS WILL BE AIR SUPPORT WITHOUT ANY PARTICIPATION
AND GROUND OPERATIONS.
>>IF HE SAID IT --
>>IF HE SAID IT, AND CERTAINLY THAT WAS TRUE IN UKRAINE -- IT
COULD BE THAT THEY WILL MOVE ON IN A MONTH OR IN SIX MONTHS, AND
THERE WILL BE RUSSIAN TROOPS IN THERE.
I CAN SEE WHERE HE WOULD
THINK THAT THEIR LACK OF CONCERN, THE RELATIVE LACK OF
CONCERN COMPARED TO THE U.S. IN TERMS OF COLLATERAL DAMAGE,
WOULD ALLOW THEM TO DO MORE DAMAGE TO ISIS.
BUT WE ALSO KNOW
HOW ISIS RECRUITS, AND INDISCRIMINATE RUSSIAN ATTACKS
AGAINST CIVILIAN POPULATIONS IN SYRIA COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO --
IF WE LOOK BACK TO RECENT HISTORY, RUSSIAN FORCES IN THE
MIDDLE EAST WOULD NEVER LEAD TO MORE MILITANT RELIGIOUS
EXTREMISM.
THAT COULDN'T POSSIBLY HAPPEN.
AT LEAST FOR
RIGHT NOW THEY ARE NOT GOING INTO AFGHANISTAN, THEY ARE
LIMITING IT TO SYRIA, BUT I COULD SEE THIS CEMENTING ASSAD'S
RULE, GETTING RID OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE OPPOSITION,
BUT ALSO ENTRENCHING AND LEADING TO A LONGER-TERM
RECRUITMENT STRATEGY FOR ISIS.
>> THIS JUST OCCURRED TO ME, THIS ESCALATION, IT COMPLICATES
AN ALREADY HIGHLY COMPLEX SITUATION AND ADDS THE THREAT
THAT THIS COULD -- GOD FORBID, JOHN KERRY WAS TALKING ABOUT THE
CONFLICT IN SYRIA.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO EFFORTS TO DECONFLICT THE
AREA, THAT IS JARGON FOR MILITARY-TO-MILITARY
COORDINATION.
GOD FORBID THAT THERE IS EVER A MISCOMMUNICATION
OR MISTAKE IN THIS PRESENT SITUATION, AND RUSSIAN TROOPS
SOMEHOW OR RUSSIAN PLANES SOMEHOW SHOOT DOWN A U.S.
PLANE OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
>>THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
>>THEN IT BECOMES SOMETHING DIFFERENT, VERY RAPIDLY.
>>AFTER ALL, WE REMEMBER A PLANE WAS SHOT DOWN OVER THE
UKRAINE.
THAT WAS NOT A U.S. PLANE, NOT A MILITARY PLANE, BUT
MISTAKES HAPPEN WHEN RUSSIAN FORCES ARE OPERATING IN THE AREA.
>>MISTAKES HAPPEN WHEN U.S. FORCES ARE OPERATING IN THE AREA.
>>I AM TALKING ABOUT SPECIFIC PLANES BEING SHOT DOWN.
>> WE ASSUME THAT SOMEHOW IT WOULD BE RUSSIA'S FAULT.
>>THE POINT I WAS MAKING, AND NOT DOING A GOOD JOB OF IT, IS
THAT THE ESCALATION IN INTENSITY OF THE SITUATION IS RATCHETED
UP.
FROM AN OUTSIDER'S POINT OF VIEW, HOW COULD THIS GET WORSE?
TODAY IT HAS.
>>TOTALLY.
I THINK WE SHOULD BE COORDINATING.
ASSUMING HE DOES
LAUNCH ANY ATTACKS AGAINST ISIS, WE SHOULD BE COORDINATING.
I
WROTE A REPORT SOMETHING LIKE A WEEK AGO, THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT
IS CONSIDERING SHARING INTELLIGENCE IN ITS FIGHT
AGAINST ISIS IN IRAQ WITH U.S. FORCES.
THEY ARE NOT SHARING
INTELLIGENCE ABOUT THE FIGHT AGAINST ISIS?
WE STILL HAVE
SOLDIERS IN IRAQ.
WHY ARE WE NOT COORDINATING?
DOESN'T MAKE SENSE
TO ME.
BUT THAT IS THE CURRENT STATE THERE.
SYRIA IS
NOT THE ONLY PLACE INVOLVED --
>>YOU CAN'T LEAVE A PLACE A TINDERBOX FOR THIS LONG AND NOT
EXPECT THAT SOMETHING -- THIS IS ONE OF THE MANY THINGS THAT CAN
GO WRONG.
THAT THIS GUY WHO IS EAGER, ALWAYS EAGER TO ASSERT
HIS MILITARY MUSCLE AND HIS POWER AND TO TALK THE WAY -- TO BEHAVE
IN THE MANNER THAT CONSERVATIVES HAVE TAKEN TO TALKING ABOUT HIM.
LOOK AT HIM.
YOU KNOW WHAT THEY WILL SAY, HE FILLED THE VOID.
HE
WILL GET THE JOB DONE.
THIS IS A GUY -- ALMOST THE MOST
UN-AMERICAN PERSON IN THE WORLD.
VLADIMIR PUTIN.
>>AND ANTI-AMERICAN.
>>AND THEY LOVE HIM.
>> HE LIKES TAKING HIS TOP OFF AND SWIMMING WITH DOLPHINS.
>>THAT USED TO BE AN AMERICAN THING, THEN WE DISCOVERED FAST
FOOD AND PROCESSED SUGAR