The second World Cup semi-final will see Croatia, managed by Zlatko Dalic, take on Gareth Southgate’s
England.
England’s 3-5-2 has been one of the most interesting tactical set-ups of the World
Cup.
Jordan Henderson screens in front of a mobile, ball-playing back three, with width coming
from the wing backs.
Raheem Sterling drops off constantly to link play and hold up the ball, while Harry Kane
and the two attack-minded midfielders push up and out to create overloads with the wing
backs, or cut back in for shooting opportunities.
England have defended brilliantly too, while Jordan Pickford made three significant saves
against Sweden to follow on from his penalty heroics against Colombia.
Croatia under Dalic have generally stayed with a 4-2-3-1, but the make-up of that has
changed.
In the quarters, Dalic reverted to playing Andre Kramaric off Mario Madzukic, with a
midfield double pivot of Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic.
In other games, though, Modric has pushed up into the 10 role, with a more defensively-minded
midfielder supporting Rakitic.
This gives Croatia greater balance, at the cost of attacking threat.
Generally, Croatia attack down the flanks, playing passes from deep towards Ivan Perisic
or Ante Rebic, or push up and create quick interchanges to make space for runs to the
by-line or opportunities to cut inside and shoot.
If Modric and Rakitic play together as the pivot, England will be able to exploit two
things.
Both Modric and Rakitic play very deep in this role, partly to compensate for a lack
of genuine defensive midfielder, and partly to pick the ball up from the defence and then
pass or drive forwards into space.
Expecting Russia to sit off and block as they did against Spain, Croatia were surprised
when they instead hustled and pressed.
Russia’s first goal came from a run between Modric and Rakitic, who were powerless to
stop the initial thrust, exposing a retreating back line to Cheryshev’s wonderful strike.
England will push up and this can both cut some of Croatia’s creativity off at source,
and see the likes of Lingard and Dele Alli running at two players not known for their
tackling in the midfield area.
Croatia could solve this by playing Brozovic or Badelj, but will they?
If Russia’s first goal will be looked at by England, so will their second.
An Alan Dzagoev free kick from the right saw Domagoj Vida isolated at the back post, marking
two men, while Croatia otherwise lined up facing their opponents.
But, as they ball came in and Russia flooded men towards the front post, some of Croatia’s
markers were sucked towards this, while one dropped to help Vida, and two stood in no
man’s land on the edge of the six yard box.
Mario Fernandes was able to get a free header, despite three Croatian players behind him
and two in front.
England have excelled at set pieces, and are far more subtle in their execution and running
patterns than Russia.
That Croatia were so bemused bodes well for a team who have done more with set plays than
any other at this tournament.
Should Croatia line up as they did against Russia, then England will have their hands
full with Perisic, Rebic, Kramaric, and Mario Madzukic.
Both wide players have had good tournaments thus far, swapping at will on either flank,
while Kramaric is a very intelligent runner with and without the ball.
But the key man is Mandzukic.
There are few strikers in world football as capable of adapting to tactical tweaks as
the Juventus forward, who plays as a wide left target man in Turin, but through the
centre here.
Kyle Walker has been England’s weakest aerial defender on the right hand side of the back
three, and Mandzukic should target that, looking to exploit the match up and create space in
behind Kieran Trippier for Perisic or Rebic to exploit, or knock downs for Kramaric or
a late midfield runner.
Walker will need to get the better of Mandzukic in the air, or swap intelligently with Stones,
or the Croatian striker will cause England real issues.
Of course, while Modric and Rakitic as a double pivot could allow England chances, they are
also two of the finest midfielders in the world.
England need to be wary of pressing too high without keeping their overall shape, as was
an issue against Belgium, when the midfield and forward line became too distant from the
back three.
Should that happen, the Croatians would have a lot of space to exploit, and England generally
need to be wary of getting sucked too far forwards, out wide as well as through the
centre, because Croatia have the passing ability and runners to hit teams quickly on the break.
Modric especially will need to be tightly marked, an argument perhaps for moving Henderson
up the pitch and bringing in Eric Dier, because the Real Madrid man can run games if given
a chance.
But England should also be wary of making too many changes based on how their opponents
play – Southgate has, so far, generally resisted this, and he should remain confident
in the ability of his team to play their style and impose it on the opposition.
Croatia do have to consider a change, but they have the players to beat any side in
the world.
Whatever happens, it will be a superb match.