>> AMANDA THANK YOU.
>> RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE
HAS BROUGHT THE KREMLIN INTO A
NEW CONFLICT AN ECONOMIC WAR
BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND
WESTERN ALLIES.
FROM A BAN ON U.S. IMPORTS OF
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS TO SANCTIONS
TARGETING THE OLIGARCHS
SUPPORTING PRESIDENT VLADIMIR
PUTIN RUSSIA'S ECONOMY IS
GETTING HIT HARD.
HOW ARE THE PUNISHMENTS PLAYING
OUT IN WESTERN COUNTRIES?
AND WHAT IS BEHIND RUSSIA'S
CONCENTRATION OF WEALTH.
JOINING US ARE ANDREAS
HAUSKRECHT, CLINICAL PROFESSOR
OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS AT INDIANA
UNIVERSITY AND JEFFREY WINTERS A
POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT
NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY
SPECIALIZING IN THE STUDY OF
OLIGARCHS.
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
ANDREAS HAUSKRECHT LET'S START
WITH YOU, HOW WOULD YOU
CHARACTER RIDE THE DEPTH OF THE
U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA?
>> I THINK THAT RUSSIAN
GOVERNMENT WAS EXTREMELY
SURPRISED ABOUT THE WELL
ORGANIZED RESPONSE OF ALL
WESTERN COUNTRIES.
IT'S NOT ONLY THE UNITED STATES
IT'S THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES.
THE SANCTIONS ARE VERY WELL
DESIGNED.
THEY HAVE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS AND
LONG-TERM EFFECTS.
THEY HAVE TAKEN AWAY BASICALLY
THE CENTRAL BANK RESERVES OF
RUSSIA.
THE CENTRAL BANK OF RUSSIA
DOESN'T HAVE THE MEANS ANYMORE
TO [INAUDIBLE]
THE FISCAL POLICY IN RUSSIA
DOESN'T HAVE THE MEANS TO
STIMULATE THE ECONOMY.
SO THERE ARE ALREADY NOW
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FOR THE
RUSSIAN ECONOMY, EXCHANGE RATE
IS BASICALLY OUT OF CONTROL.
WITH SIGNIFICANT WELFARE COSTS
FOR EVERYONE IN RUSSIA.
WE ALSO SEE THAT THE BANKS ARE
EXCLUDED FROM THE WORLDWIDE
PAYMENT SYSTEM CALLED SWIFT
WHICH MAKES ANY FORM OF
INTERNATIONAL TRADE VERY, VERY
DIFFICULT FOR RUSSIA.
ALSO INTERNATIONAL [INAUDIBLE]
SO WHAT WE SEE HERE, I BELIEVE
THE PUNISHMENT OF INDIVIDUALS OF
OBVIOUSLY GARKS ALSO PART OF THE
PUNISHMENT I LEAVE THAT TO
GEOFFREY.
>> JEFFREY WINTERS, AS WE JUST
HEARD AMONG THE SANCTIONS ARE
THE TARGETING THE OLIGARCHS WHAT
ARE RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS?
AND WHAT ARE THE SANCTIONS DOING
TO THEM IN PARTICULAR?
>> THANK YOU, BRANDIS.
FIRST OF ALL, OLIGARCHS WHICH IS
A WORD THAT IS GETTING USED A
LOT RIGHT NOW WITH REGARD TO
RUSSIA IS AN ANCIENT WORD THAT
GOES BACK TO ROME AND AN THENS
AND IT AGENT THENS AND PEOPLE
WHO ARE SUPER POWERFUL BECAUSE
THEY ARE WEALTHY.
RUSSIA HAS OLIGARCHS THE U.P.S.
HAS OBVIOUSLY GASHES.
COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE WORLD
HAVE THEM.
THEY USE WEALTH POWER TO
INFLUENCE POLITICS.
WHETHER THOSE POLITICS ARE
DEMOCRATIC OR AUTHORITARIAN IN
THE CASE OF PUTIN.
AFTER THE SMALL OF THE SOVIET
UNION WHEN THERE WERE NOT ANY
OLIGARCHS IN THE SOVIET UNION
WHEN RUSSIA WAS RESTARTED, VERY
QUICKLY A GROUP OF OLIGARCHS
AROSE BY CEASING AND GRABBING
STATE ASSETS BIG CORPORATIONS,
GAS, AMONG THEM.
OIL AND THIS GROUP OF PEOPLE
EMERGED AS BEING TREMENDOUSLY
POWERFUL.
AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT
RUSSIA HAS STRUGGLED WITH EVER
SINCE THE RISE OF THESE NEW
OLIGARCHS, IS WHETHER THEY
CONTAIN THEM OR NOT --
CAN TAME THEM OR NOT.
THE RULE OF LAW IS NOT STRONG IN
RUSSIA.
SO PRUNE R PUTIN HIMSELF, THE
BIGGEST OLIGARCH OF ALL IN
RUSSIA, HAS A CARROT AND STICK
RELATIONSHIP WITH THESE VERY
POWERFUL PEOPLE.
BEING CLOSE TO PUTIN MATTERS A
LOT FOR HAVING OPPORTUNITIES AND
HAVING PROTECTION.
BUT ALSO YOU CAN BE SELECTIVELY
TARGETED SO THAT THE GAME THAT
IS GOING ON.
>> AND ANDREAS HAUSKRECHT WE
KNOW THAT STOCKS ARE SLUMPING
TODAY WITH THE S&P ON PACE FOR
THE FIFTH DROP IN SIX DAYS IS
THE U.S. ECONOMY FEELING THE
IMPACT OF WHAT SOME CALL THE
ECONOMIC WAR AGAINST RUSSIA?
>> YES AND NO.
THERE IS AN ECONOMIC WAR.
LET ME PUT THIS INTO
PERSPECTIVE.
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS THE SIZE OF
23 TRILLION A YEAR.
RUSSIA HAS A SIZE OF 1.5
TRILLION A YEAR.
NOW WITH THE APPRECIATION CLOSE
TO 1 TRILLION.
THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS SMALLER
THE CANADIAN ECONOMY AND SOUTH
KOREAN ECONOMY.
BY USING THOSE SANCTIONS THE
WEST HAS THE ABILITY TO BRING
THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY TO A STOP.
AND THIS IS VERY EFFECTIVE.
THE EFFECTS FOR THE UNITED
STATES ECONOMY ARE LIMITED.
I LOOKED UP RUSSIA IS THE 30TH
BIGGEST TRADING PARTNER WITH THE
UNITED STATES.
WHAT WE IMPORT FROM RUSSIA IS
MAINLY MINERALS, OIL AND
GASOLINE.
>> BUT WE ARE EXPORTING TO
RUSSIA PLANES, CARS, VEHICLES,
CHIPS, SO EXPERTS ARE GUESSING
WITHIN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS
BECAUSE RUSSIA'S PLANES ARE FROM
BOEING AND AIRBUS.
THEY WILL BE GROUNDED BECAUSE
THERE IS NO SERVICENESS NO SPARE
PARTS.
FOR THE UNITED STATES WE SEE THE
STOCK MARKET BUT THE STOCK
MARKET NEEDED A CORRECTION, I
SEE THE RUSSIAN CRISIS MORE AS
THE START OF A NEEDED STOCK
MARKET CORRECTION.
>> AND I WANT TO GET JEFFREY
WINTERS BACK IN HERE RUSSIAN
OLIGARCHS HOW DO THEY FACTOR
INTO THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY?
CAN THEY SHIFT THE DYNAMIC IN
THE CONFLICT?
>> THE BIGGEST IMPACT IS
POLITICAL.
SO I MEAN IT'S ECONOMIC BUT IT'S
REALLY POLITICAL.
OLIGARCHS HAVE INDIVIDUALLY THE
POWER AND THE INFLUENCE OF
MILLIONS OF PEOPLE COMBINED.
AND SO IF THESE SANCTIONS REALLY
HURT THE OLIGARCHS WHO ARE
AROUND PUTIN IT PLACES
TREMENDOUS PRESSURE ON HIM.
IF THEY BECOME ALARMED AND
ALIENATED AND IF THEY SEE THIS
ATTACK ON UKRAINE AS DAMAGING
THEM, IF THEY TURN EN MASS
AGAINST PUTIN THAT COMPLICATES
HIS SITUATION POLITICALLY, A
GREAT DEAL.
AND THESE SANCTIONS WHICH ARE AS
ADRAN YEAHS SAID THEY ARE THAT
JUST DIRECTED AT THE COUNTRY AND
THE ECONOMY THEY ARE DIRECTED
SPECIFICALLY AT THE OLIGARCHS
WITH THAT VERY INTENTION IN
MIND.
THE IDEA IS TO SEPARATE PUTIN
FROM THE OLIGARCHS PUT PRESSURE
ON THEM SO THEY IN TURN PUT
PRESSURE ON HIM.
>> OBVIOUSLY A LOT TO WATCH
GOING FORWARD ECONOMICALLY IN