Hello and welcome to the latest update of the sugarcane rainfall
outlook for the Far North Sugarcane District.
This presentation will be covering recent rainfall amounts recorded so far in May, then the forecast
rainfall over the short term. We'll then look at the June and July rainfall outlooks in
detail before a short summary of the longer term winter rainfall that looks and climate drivers.
During May we've seen rainfall totals of 25 to 40 millimeters around Mossman and Cairns.
Rainfall totals across the Tablelands have been very modest with only one millimeter recorded at
Mareeba, and 20 to 30 millimeters through Atherton and Malanda. Month to date rainfall totals have
been well below average so far as shown by the red dots on the right, with most locations receiving
only 20 to 35 percent of their median monthly rainfall totals, dropping as low as 10 percent or less
over the northern Tablelands. Looking ahead to the short-term forecast and here we have three-day
rainfall accumulation totals from this Friday to Sunday on the left, Monday to Wednesday, in the
middle panel and Thursday to Saturday next week on the right. A southeasterly surge is currently
enhancing stream showers to the wet Tropics. That southeasterly flow will ease on Saturday
with showers largely clearing over the weekend and early next week. A significantly cooler air
mass will reach the tropics on Sunday. Coupled with clearer skies we expect to see a drop in
temperatures with single digit minimums possible for the Tablelands on Sunday and Monday, around 8
to 12 degrees below average for May. And minimums around four to eight degrees cooler than average
near the coast on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will gradually warm from midweek and another
southeasterly surge is expected later in the week, bringing another round of showers to the region.
Here we have the chance of exceeding 25 millimeters of rainfall over the next
fortnight broken down into week-long periods. You can access these maps on the link above.
I've selected 25 millimeters to display here and on the website there are a number
of rainfall thresholds available, between one millimeter to 700 millimeters to choose from.
On the left, week one covers from the 29th of May to the 4th of June, and week two from the
5th of June to the 11th of June on the right. Around the Mossman region there's a 10 to 25%
chance of 25 millimeters or more in Week one, and for week two with higher odds of 25 to 50%
around the Daintree coastline and the range inland. Cairns and the Tableland region have
a less than 10 percent chance of 25 millimeters across both weeks. Into the whole of June outlook,
and an average to slightly above average chance of exceeding the June median rainfall is predicted,
though the model skill at this time of year is only poor to fair, getting it correct typically 50
to 55 percent of the time near Mossman and south to Babinda, with the skill level decreasing below
50 percent through the Tablelands. For further information including point location forecasts
check the Bureau Climate Outlooks page on the link above. This translates into about an equal chance
of seeing rainfall close to the historical median for the month, as we can see from this comparison
of the 50 percent chance of at least chart on the left, with near historical median map on
the right, both looking fairly similar. Expanding further on the possible June rainfall totals here,
with the high chance on the left a 75 percent or three out of four times we think expect to see
at least this much through the month of June, and the lower chance totals on the right- the
25 percent chance or one out of four times we would expect to see these two totals exceeded.
Moving on to the month of July now and a slightly wetter signature is evident in the
rainfall outlook with a moderate to high around 60 to 70 percent chance of exceeding the July median
rainfall. The model shows improved skill during July compared to June and is typically correct
55 to 65 percent of the time. This translates into about an equal chance or slightly higher
of seeing rainfall close to the historical median for the month as we can see from this comparison
of the 50 percent chance of at least on the left, the historical median map on the right.
Expanding further on the possible July rainfall totals here with the high chance on the left the
75 percent chance of exceeding, or three out of four times we can expect to see at least
this month through the month of July, and the lower chance totals on the right- the
25 percent chance or one out of four times we are expecting to see these totals exceeded.
And a quick snapshot of the rainfall outlook for winter months June to August as a whole,
and we see a high around 60 to 80 percent chance of exceeding the median rainfall across winter.
The modeling is typically correct 55 to 65 percent of the time through this forecast period with a
slightly lower skill of around 50 to 55 percent through the southern Tablelands. So what's driving
this? We are currently in an El Niño Watch with a 50 percent chance of El Niño forming later
this year, around double the normal likelihood. In recent months we have observed the eastern
tropical Pacific waters warming but we've seen little atmospheric response. All International
climate models indicated is very likely Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds
during the winter, however an atmospheric response is also required for an El Niño to be declared by
the Bureau. El Niño is normally associated with lower than average winter and spring rainfall over
eastern Australia, however unusually warm waters over the northern Coral Sea are expected to be
a stronger climate influence over Far North Queensland increasing the odds of exceeding
the median rainfall over the winter period. This translates into an about equal chance or slightly
higher of seeing rainfall close to the historical median for the winter as we can see from this
comparison of the 50 percent chance of at least chart on the left, with the historical median
map on the right. That's it for this update, as always check the latest forecasts and warnings on
the Bureau's website or the BOM Weather App and be sure to send any feedback through to
agriculture@bom.gov.au. We'd love to hear from you. See you next outlook, thanks for listening.