Right now,
based on
the numbers
that we have available at this moment,
we believe that Republicans
are still on their way
to achieving what they need to achieve
in the 82
outstanding the 82 total
competitive House districts.
John, clear favorites Republicans.
Even now as we approach to aim
are clear favorites
to win a House majority
but but it's a big
but there is still a small possibility
modest participation
call it small modest possibility
Democrats could hold their majority.
Did you think we'd be
having that conversation now.
This is a big bite at 2:00 in the morning
and if Republicans do
win the majority now
because we're getting fewer
and fewer races still on the board,
it's likely to be a more narrow majority.
Here's another way to look at it.
You just laid it out the smartest way.
I'll get there, building it down
just in the top.
This is where we stand right now,
leading the vote.
These are not called races.
This is leading the vote. Right.
But if if we if this were over right now,
the Republicans
would have a three seat majority
in the House of Representatives.
We're not it's not over.
But just think about the narrow
realm we're talking about now.
You mentioned earlier in the night, Kevin
McCarthy earlier in the year said
60 seats,
some Republicans in the last week
have been saying 30 seats.
We are not we are not in that ballpark.
219 216 leading right now.
Right.
In terms of called races.
193, 269.
So Republicans clearly are getting close.
It's two 18
in terms of the cold races
they're getting close.
This is what you were
just talking about here
in the races that are still uncalled
and the Democrats
leading in more of the competitive seats.
You would say that's
good for the Democrats.
It is good for the Democrats.
It's not good enough
to prevent a House majority.
We're not done yet again.
But where we stand right now
it looks like the Republicans
are on a path to get a narrow majority.
But I just want to step back again
and just look at this map.
But that's not a red wave.
That's nothing like a red wave.
No, that that could end up being enough
for Republicans
to get a small House majority,
maybe a modest House
majority, depending on how you define it.
But that is a very competitive map
in which
a lot of Democrats in frontline districts
scratched and clawed their way
to victory.
That includes we talked earlier tonight
in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
I mean, Virginia are one off here
with these races are off the board.
Let me come up.
That's uncalled let me come out of there.
And you look,
Democrats won two of the three.
They won this one here
a more Democratic district.
They should have won.
But if there were a red wave,
that would be red. It is not.
If there were a big red ripple,
this one would be the next one down
sorry.
Let me come over here
to Abigail Spanberger.
It's just even a big red ripple.
This one would be red. It is not.
And so these frontline Democrats
scratched and clawed,
not just in Virginia,
you come out to Ohio,
you see all this blue.
They picked up a seat.
This is a pickup
that was a Republican incumbent
that will now be
a new Democratic congressman.
So on a night
when Democrats
were supposed to lose a lot,
you'd like to pick up
some to offset that.
There's one right there in Cincinnati.
Even though the Republican
governor won big,
even though the Republican
Senate candidate
won reasonably comfortably.
Marcy Kaptur, again, a veteran Democrat,
scratching it out
against a
January 6th participant
who lied about military service.
Good candidate beats bad candidate
here in Ohio.
So you just come back out,
you could keep going through these races.
Let's go out to Colorado right now.
The Democratic governor wins big.
The Democratic senator, Republican said
they were going
to give him the race of a lifetime.
They did not in the House races
right out here.
This is Lauren Boebert.
Many of you may have heard of her,
a more controversial pro-Trump
member of the House
Republican Conference, only at 83%.
There's a ways to go here.
There's room for her to catch up.
But it's supposed to beat the Democrats
on their heels.
And here you have a Republican incumbent
but just
I mean just for people to understand
this is a district
that is our plus eight right.
Our plus eight.
And right now she still might pull it out
but the fact that it's so competitive
says there's something going on here
that certainly Kevin McCarthy
who by the way
we expect to come out and speak
live at any moment
certainly Kevin McCarthy
did not see coming at all.
And so the
texting with some House Republicans
and Republican consultants
more who work with those consultants.
And you're looking at this again.
Lauren Boebert has time in room with 83%.
She may still pull this out.
But the conversation,
sarcastic conversation
among Republicans right now
is if you're going to have a five
or six seat majority,
would you rather have five and not her
because she's one of the agitators,
the Marjorie Taylor Greens,
the Lauren Boebert,
the members of the Freedom
Caucus, the people
who if Kevin McCarthy has a very narrow
majority are going to be on the phone
with Donald Trump all the time.
What do you want us to tell him to do?
And so that's the calculation.
Now, McCarthy, with a ten,
15, 20 seat
majority, has a leash,
has some room, has some maneuverability.
McCarthy with a very small majority
like that.
It'll be a really interesting
Washington and Jake,
especially if you take
this it's not a final number
but this is trending toward
it looks like the house looks
there's still a possibility
the Democrats keep
the majority
looks like the Republicans
get a relatively narrow majority
and then you come here
and you're looking at a map
where Mitch McConnell right now,
if he hasn't gone to bed,
is having one more fine Kentucky bourbon.
Why?
Because once again,
he has looked at a map and said,
I have a chance to be the majority leader
and he's still possible.
But that is not.
But I also know
Mitch McConnell is saying Donald Trump
pushed nominees in states
that we could have won.
And those nominees, whether John I mean,
Mehmet Oz or others, blew it.