THE STORM IS OVER THE BAHAMAS
RIGHT NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE
STRENGTH, SOMETHING THAT
FORECASTERS ARE CALLING
CATASTROPHIC.
SUSTAINED WINDS GOT UP TO 185
MILES PER HOUR WITH GUSTS AT
OVER 200 MILES PER HOUR.
IN SOUTH FLORIDA WE CONTINUE
TO WAIT FOR HURRICANE DORIAN TO
MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH.
WE HAVE THE NEW PROJECTED PATH
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.
THERE IS NO BAD OR GOOD NEWS
IN THE SITUATION.
THERE IS NO WORSE NEWS, WE ARE
FEELING UNCHANGED FROM THE
EARLIER ADVISORIES, LETS TALK
ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON.
HURRICANE DORIAN HAS THE
UNWELCOME DISTINCTION OF BEING
ONE OF THE TOP THREE OR FOUR
HURRICANES OUT THERE ON RECORD.
180 MILES PER HOUR WINDS,
THAT'S VERY HIGH IN THE
CATEGORY FIVE RANGE, IT STARTS
AT 160.
20 MILES PER HOUR OVER THAT.
THAT WIND SPEED IS DOWN 5 MILES
PER HOUR.
WE WERE EXPECTING THIS.
BECAUSE IT'S MOVING SO SLOW,
IT'S RAINING OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
PULLING UP COOL WATER.
JUST A BIT OF FRICTION.
SO IT'S BROUGHT THE WIND SPEED
DOWN.
WE EXPECT THAT BUT ITS NOT
ENOUGH.
WE NEED IT TO BE CUT AND A
HALF, THAT IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN.
MOVING WEST AT 6 MILES PER
HOUR.
WE ARE GOING TO WATCH THE SPEED
AND THE LATITUDE, IT'S CLOSER
TO PALM BEACH THAN FORT
LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI, THAT
NUMBER IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE A
LOT FOR 24 HOURS AS HURRICANE
DORIAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE WEST.
IT'S SUNDAY EVENING, HERE'S THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY, GRAND
BAHAMA IS 60 MILES ACROSS, IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IT'S GOING TO
TRAVEL 60 MILES AND GRIND IT'S
WAY RIGHT ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA.
IT DOES SLOWLY DROP THIS
INTENSITY, I HATE TO CALL IT
WEAKENING, IT'S GONE FROM A
FIVE TO A FOUR, IS STILL A VERY
EXTREME HURRICANE, THEN IT
BEGINS IT'S TRACK TO THE NORTH.
THAT'S TUESDAY MORNING, IT'S
BASICALLY STALLED AS THE
STEERING CURRENTS HAVE
COLLAPSED ON TOP OF IT.
WHEN THE NEW STEERING KEARNS
TAKE OVER IT STARTS A FORWARD
MOTION, THEN ALL OF THE SOUTH
EAST UNITED STATES IS WATCHING
IT.
IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THAT
THE CENTER PART REACHES OF
COAST ALONG THE TRACK THIS THE
COMING DAYS, WE HAVE GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS IS GOING
TO PLAY OUT, AS FAR AS WE ARE
CONCERNED.
BUT THE DETAILS ARE UP IN THE
AIR, THIS IS TUESDAY MORNING,
THE EURO MODEL HAS MOVED DUE
EAST AND THE GFS MODEL HAS
TURNED IT.
THE POSITION WEST CLOSEST TO
FLORIDA IS SIMILAR.
JUST THE GFS IS MORE NORTH.
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING,
TWO DAYS FROM NOW, IS FINALLY
PULLING NORTH.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL GOES WEST
AND STARTS GOING NORTH.
THE GFS DOES A CURVE.
THEN IT'S UP TO THE NORTH EAST.
HERE'S THE RADAR TONIGHT, A LOT
GOING ON HERE, FIRST THERE IS
THE EYE WALL.
THAT'S THE YELLOW AREA HERE,
THERE IS BEEN A LOT OF
LIGHTENING IN THE EYE WALL.
THAT'S UNUSUAL IN TROPICAL
SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR EXTREMELY
STRONG STORMS.
YOU SEE THE YELLOW BAND
STARTING TO CIRCLE THE EYE, WE
CALL THAT A CONCENTURY EYE WALL
WHERE THERE ARE TWO EYE WALLS,
A CENTER AND AN OUTER ONE, THE
STORM CENTER IS QUHUN 50 MILES
FROM MIAMI AND 100 MILES FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE.
IF THE SECOND WALL GUNS TO
EXPAND, THE WIND FIELD IS GOING
TO GROW.
THE OTHER THING THAT IS REALLY
ANNOYING, THE CENTER BEGINS TO
WOBBLE.
IT LOOKS LIKE AT TIMES IS
TURNING SOUTHWEST IN OUR
DIRECTION, THOSE WABLES ARE
UNNERVING BUT THEY ARE A NORMAL
PROCESS IN A HURRICANE, THIS IS
WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT.
THERE IS THE OUTER EYE WALL
MAYBE TRYING TO FORM.
IF IT CHOKES OFF OR CAUSES THE
INNER WALL TO BE REPLACED WE
HAVE THE INTENSITY LOWER BUT
WIND FIELD EXPANDED BY THE
STORM.
RIGHT NOW THE CENTER OF THE EYE
WALL IS 12 MILES AND THE SECOND
IS 26 MILES.
THE BIGGEST WINDS WOULD EXPAND
OUTWARD BUT THE INTENSITY OF
THE WINDS COME DOWN.
WHY IS THAT A CONCERN TO US?
BECAUSE IF IT GOT CLOSER TO US,
THE SECOND WIND AREAS REACHES
THE COAST.
BROWARD COUNTY, TROPICAL STORM
WATCH, A WATCH MEANS IT'S
POSSIBLE WE CAN SEE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS.
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY ESPECIALLY
THE METRO AREA, HURRICANE
WATCH, TROPICAL STORM WARNING,
UP THE COAST THERE IS A
HURRICANE WARNING.
STORM SURGE WARNLINGS UP FROM
PALM BEACH NORTH.
NOT IN MIAMI-DADE OR BROWARD.
THIS IS A LOT TO DIGEST.
THESE ARE THE VALUES HERE.
THE VALUES ARE MEDIUM HIGH IN
PALM BEACH COUNTY BUT SEE THAT
SHARP LINE THERE.
14% IN FORT LAUDERDALE.
THIS MAY BE THE EARLY ADVISORY,
BUT BASICALLY, THE RED AREA AS
IT COMES IN, THAT'S WHERE THE
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE.
THEN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER
OFFSHORE ITS THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH, WE WILL COME BACK TO THE
GRAPHIC IN JUST A BIT.
HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN OUT
THERE ALL EVENING LONG, WE TALK
ABOUT THE TIME LINE FOR SOUTH