>>> 14-TERM CONGRESSMAN PETER KING OF NEW YORK ANNOUNCED TODAY
HE’S RETIRING AND WON’T SEEK
RE-ELECTION IN 2020.
THE 75-YEAR-OLD REPUBLICAN
SAYING HE WANTS TO SPEND MORE
TIME WITH HIS FAMILY.
KING’S SUBURBAN LONG ISLAND
DISTRICT IS THE KIND OF DISTRICT
THE GOP HAS RECENTLY BEEN
STRUGGLING TO HOLD.
EVEN THOUGH IT WAS CARRIED BY
TRUMP, KING WON RE-ELECTION BY
JUST SIX POINTS LAST YEAR WHICH
IS THE CLOSEST RACE HE HAS HAD
SINCE HE WAS FIRST ELECTED BACK
IN 1992.
IN 1992. NOW, KING IS WIDELY DESCRIBED IN
THE PRESS AS A RARE MODERATE
REPUBLICAN, BUT I DON’T THINK
THAT REALLY CHARACTERIZED HIM
ACCURATELY.
ACCURATELY. HE WAS ONE OF THE MOST NOTORIOUS
ANTI-MUSLIM BIGOTS IN ALL OF
CONGRESS.
CONGRESS. HE SAID THERE ARE, QUOTE, TOO
MANY MOSQUES IN THIS COUNTRY.
HE LED HEARINGS ON WHAT HE
CLAIMED WAS THE, QUOTE,
RADICALIZATION OF THE AMERICAN
MUSLIM COMMUNITY AND CALLED FOR
NATIONWIDE SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM
DIRECTED AT MUSLIM-AMERICANS.
KING’S DEPARTURE IS PART OF AN
AMAZING STORY THAT’S PLAYED OUT
BEFORE OUR EYES SINCE TRUMP’S
ELECTION.
ELECTION. HE IS THE 20th HOUSE REPUBLICAN
TO DECLINE TO SEEK RE-ELECTION
IN 2020 WHICH IS PART OF A BROOD
BROADER TREND.
BROADER TREND. COOK POLITICAL REPORT EDITOR
DAVE WASSERMAN NOTES WHEN TRUMP
TOOK OFFICE IN JANUARY 2017,
THERE WERE 241 REPUBLICANS IN
THE HOUSE, SINCE THEN, 101 HAVE
BEEN DEFEATED, RETIRED OR
OTHERWISE LEFT OFFICE OR ARE
RETIRING IN 2020.
THAT’S MORE THAN 40%.
THE REPUBLICANS WHO STAY ARE
MOSTLY THE TRUMP DIEHARDS.
LIKE THE PARTY IN GENERAL, THE
ELECTED GOP IS BECOMING TRUMPIER
IN EVERY WAY.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR 2020?
TO HELP ANSWER THAT I WANT TO
BRING IN TWO DEMOCRATIC
POLLSTERS AND STRATEGISTS.
CORNELL BELCHER AND MARGIE
O’MARA.
O’MARA. PETER KING’S DISTRICT, SUBURBAN
LONG ISLAND, WENT FOR OBAMA AND
ROMNEY, SWUNG BIG FOR TRUMP,
PLUS NINE OVER HILLARY CLINTON
THEN PETER KING WON BY SIX
POINTS BUT HAD A CONTESTED RACE.
WHAT DO YOU SEE HERE AS THE
DECISIONMAKING OF KING WHO IS
OLD ENOUGH THAT IT’S NOT CRAZY
HE’S RETIRING?
HE’S RETIRING? >> WELL, OBAMA WON THIS DISTRICT
TWICE, TOO, SO THIS IS A
DISTRICT THAT HAS BEEN ON THE
MATCH, AS WE SAY, FOR A WHILE,
AS ONE THAT COULD BE POTENTIALLY
A PICKUP OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEMOCRATS AND LAST TIME AROUND,
HE HAS A STRONG CANDIDATE, WOMAN
CANDIDATE, UBIA GRETCHEN SHIRLEY
WHO HAD THIS INCREDIBLE VIDEO AS
A MOM OF YOUNG KIDS, HE HAD
SHOWN HER YOUNG KIDS AND TALKED
ABOUT BEING A MOM IN HER VIDEO
AND HAD THIS VERY CONTENTIOUS
DEBATE WHERE PETER KING GOT VERY
TESTY WITH HER.
IT WAS THE KIND OF RACE WHERE,
YOU KNOW, A LOT OF WOMEN IN A
LOT OF DISTRICTS AROUND THE
COUNTRY WON THAT RACE.
SHE CAME UP A LITTLE BIT SHORT
BUT IT JUST HIGHLIGHTED, I
THINK, THE OPPORTUNITY HERE FOR
PROGRESSIVES TO -- AND FOR
DEMOCRATS TO REALLY MAKE A REAL
CLEAR CONTRAST.
CLEAR CONTRAST. >> YOU KNOW, CORNELL, WHAT I SEE
HERE IN THE THINKING OF THESE
FOLKS ARE YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE
TO RAISE A LOT OF MONEY, YOU’RE
GOING TO HAVE TO RUN A TOUGH
RACE.
RACE. THE SORT OF DEMOGRAPHICS ON THE
GROUND IN THE TRUMP ERA MAKES IT
HARDER TO WIN THESE PLACES AND
THEN YOU GOT TO DEFEND THE
PRESIDENT ALL THE TIME WHICH I
JUST FEEL LIKE IS A KIND OF --
I’M SERIOUS, LIKE, WHO WANTS IT,
HONESTLY?
HONESTLY? I THINK, 20 EXODUSES, I CAN
UNDERSTAND THE DECISIONMAKING.
>> WELL, I DON’T SEE THIS STORY
AND WHAT YOU’RE SEEING WITH KING
AND SOME OTHER REPUBLICANS AND
THEM LOSING THE SUBURBS,
DISCONNECTED FROM THE STORY YOU
JUST RAN ABOUT JIM JORDAN.
WHERE YOU DO HAVE, TO YOUR
POINT, YOU HAVE A REPUBLICAN
PARTY THAT’S ALMOST CULTISH NOW.
A REPUBLICAN PARTY WHERE
DEFENDING DONALD TRUMP IS THE
FIRST AND FOREMOST PRIORITY.
DEFENDING HIM AROUND THINGS THAT
A LOT OF THESE COLLEGE-EDUCATED
VOTERS, ESPECIALLY
VOTERS, ESPECIALLY COLLEGE-EDUCATED WOMEN IN THE
SUBURBS FIND INDEFENSIBLE.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, THE -- MADE A
BARGAIN WITH REPUBLICANS,
MODERATE REPUBLICANS, YOU KEEP
OUR TAXES LOW AND KEEP US SAFE,
AND WE’LL GIVE YOU YOUR VOTES.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> YOU KNOW, THAT IS NOT -- THAT
IS BEGINNING TO SORT OF ERODE
ESPECIALLY WITH THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY TURNED FIRST AND FOREMOST
TO DEFENDING TRUMP, ALSO, CHRIS,
I THINK THIS IS IMPORTANT, TOO,
THERE IS A PRICE TO PAY FOR SUCH
A NARROW FOCUS ON RURAL ISSUES
AND SORT OF THE RURAL CULTURE
AND SUPPORTING RURAL VOTERS
BECAUSE YOU DID ALSO BEGIN TO
SRT
SRT SORT OF TURN OFF SUBURBAN
VOTERS.
VOTERS. NOWHERE IS THAT A BIGGER
PROBLEM, THE ISSUE OF GUNS AND
HOW THAT’S TURNING IN THE
SUBURBS VERSUS HOW IT’S NOT TURN
IN THE RURAL AREAS.
>> MARGIE, IT’S ALSO CASE, IF
YOU’RE ON THE FRONT LINE AS A
REPUBLICANS YOU’VE GOT TO SORT
OF NEGOTIATE THE FACT THAT A LOT
OF YOUR VOTERS PROBABLY HAVE
SOME FRUSTRATED FEELINGS ABOUT
THE PRESIDENT, TO BE DELICATE AT
MOST.
MOST. YOU HAVE A SORT OF ENERGIZED
OPPOSITION THAT’S GOING TO RAISE
MONEY.
MONEY. THEN IF YOU’RE ON THE OTHER
SIDE, RIGHT, YOU ALSO GOT TO
WATCH THE PRIMARY FLANK.
I THOUGHT THIS PIECE FROM THE
"TEXAS TRIBUNE" ABOUT KAY
GRANGER IS FASCINATING, THE MOST
SENIOR REPUBLICAN WOMAN IN THE
U.S. HOUSE BUT SHE’S BASICALLY
DRAWING A PRIMARY CHALLENGER AND
HE’S GOING TO HAVE TO RUN, YOU
KNOW, THIS CONTESTED RACE
BECAUSE SHE’S SORT OF, I GUESS,
INSUFFICIENTLY PRO-TRUMP.
INSUFFICIENTLY PRO-TRUMP. >> WELL, I’M NOT SURE IF THAT
WAS A PART OF THE CALCULATION
FOR PETER KING, BUT IT IS, I
THINK, SOMETIMES A CALCULATION
FOR REPUBLICANS IN OTHER
DISTRICTS AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THESE
RETIREMENTS, YOU HAVE OBVIOUSLY
A LOT MORE RETIREMENTS ON THE
REPUBLICAN SIDE THAN ON THE
DEMOCRATIC SIDE.
DEMOCRATIC SIDE. THAT GAP IS EVEN LARGER IF
YOU’RE JUST LOOKING AT THE MOST
TOSSUP DISTRICTS.
TOSSUP DISTRICTS. AND I THINK THAT WHAT THE NEXT
STEP IS IS WHO IS NOW RUNNING --
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> -- FOR THOSE SEATS?
AND IF A SEAT LOOKS TOUGH THEN
THE FOLKS WHO HAVE ALWAYS WANTED
TO RUN FOR CONGRESS ARE THINKING
MAYBE THIS IS NOT MY YEAR AND SO
IN A TOUGH TIME WHERE YOU HAVE A
LOT OF REPUBLICANS WHO ARE
RETIRING BECAUSE THEY HAVE
POLLING OR THEY’VE DECIDED IT’S
TOUGH FOR THEM, THEY’RE NOT
NECESSARILY GOING TO BE REPLACED
BY THREE, FOUR, FIVE, DIFFERENT
STRONG CHALLENGERS, OR STRONG
FOLKS WHO RUN FOR THAT CONTESTED
PRIMARY ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE.
LIKE WE SAW IN ’18 ON THE
DEMOCRATIC SIDE WHERE WE HAD
LOTS OF CONTESTED RYE MARES
BECAUSE WE HAD LOTS OF DEMOCRATS
IN THESE -- TRYING TO CHALLENGE
REPUBLICANS WHO ARE EXCITED TO
RUN FOR OFFICE.
>> MARGIE MAKES A GREAT POINT
HERE, TOO, THE TRANSFORMATION OF
THE PARTY, THINK OF THE 101
MEMBERS, THING ABOUT WHO’S GOING
TO RUN FOR REPUBLICAN SEAT,
WHO’S MOTIVATED, LECTURE ON THE
GRASSROOTS ON THE REPUBLICAN
SIDE, IT’S GOING TO BE A
PRO-TRUMP AMERICAN.
PRO-TRUMP AMERICAN. UNAVOIDABLY, THAT’S THE KIND OF
PERSON WHO’S GOING TO WANT TO
RUN IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, WHO’S
GOING TO HAVE A BEAT ON AN OPEN
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IF THAT’S
WHAT YOU’RE FACING.
YOU’RE GOING TO SELECT FOR THOSE
KINDS OF COUNTRIES THEN THOSE
KINDS OF LEGISLATORS.
>> THIS IS, CHRIS, I’M GOING TO
REACH, BUT NOT ROOST VERY FAR.
THIS IS WHERE THE CHICKENS COME
HOME TO ROOST AROUND
GERRYMANDERING.
GERRYMANDERING. YOU GERRYMANDER THE DISTRICTS
WHERE OFTENTIMES THE ONLY
COMPETITION OR THE MOST
COMPETITION YOU HAVE IS IN THE
PRIMARY SO YOU’RE GOING TO GET
THE MOST RADICALIZED SORT OF
MOST --
MOST -- >> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> -- FAR-RIGHT TRUMP REPUBLICAN
IS GOING TO PROBABLY WIN THAT
PRIMARY AND IN THIS AGE AND TIME
WHERE THE SUBURBS ARE
PARTICULARLY SORT OF
COLLEGE-EDUCATED WHITE VOTERS
BEGIN TO SORT OF TURN AGAINST
THESE VOTERS, I THINK IT MAKES
IT A LOT HARDER FOR THEM TO, IN
FACT, HOLD ON AND WIN THESE
COMPETITIVE SEATS BUT THE
GERRYMANDERING HERE DOES VERY