JUDY WOODRUFF: Last night, India carried out a bombing raid in Pakistani territory, claiming
to target a terrorist group responsible for a deadly attack on Indian forces two weeks
ago.
As William Brangham reports, this is the most serious escalation in years between the two
nuclear-armed adversaries.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Indian officials said they successfully destroyed a training camp for
the group known as Jaish-e-Mohammad.
That group claimed responsibility for a massive suicide bomb attack two weeks ago that killed
38 members of India's security forces.
Today, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, standing before photos of those killed two
weeks ago, celebrated this retaliatory strike.
NARENDRA MODI, Indian Prime Minister (through translator): I will not let the country bow.
I take an oath upon this soil that I won't let this country be erased.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: That earlier attack occurred in Kashmir, the highly disputed region between
India and Pakistan that's been a source of conflict for decades between the two nations.
For more on all this, I'm joined now by Sumit Ganguly, distinguished professor of political
science at Indiana University in Bloomington.
Professor, thank you very much for being here.
Before we get to this most recent escalation, I wonder if you could just explain, for those
people who have not been following this, why is it that Kashmir, that region between the
two nations, is such an open wound between them?
SUMIT GANGULY, Indiana University-Bloomington: This is an issue that wasn't resolved at the
time when the British were withdrawing from the subcontinent in 1947.
And both India and Pakistan laid claim to this border state which abuts both the two
countries.
India wanted to claim Kashmir because it's a Muslim-majority region and wanted to demonstrate
that a significant minority could thrive within a predominantly Hindu country.
Pakistan, by the same token, which had been created as a homeland for the Muslims of South
Asia, felt that an adjoining region had to be part of Pakistan, and otherwise Pakistan
would be incomplete.
And it's this sense of incompleteness that has driven Pakistani policy and helped drive
Pakistan's claim to Kashmir.
But since India controls two-thirds of the state, which is what it managed to hold after
Pakistan launched an invasion shortly after the British departure, that it refuses to
concede ground, and Pakistan holds on to the one-third that it does, there have been multiple
wars trying to resolve this issue, and a series of negotiations, but they have all ultimately
run aground.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: So, given that long acrimony, how do you see this most recent escalation
unfolding over the next few days?
SUMIT GANGULY: This is a somewhat fraught situation, particularly since this is the
first time that the Indian air force has tracked across what is called the Line of Control,
which is the de facto international border between India and Pakistan in this disputed
state.
And this is first time that India used its air force across the border since the 1971
war.
And, consequently, sentiments in Pakistan, I suspect, are quite raw at the moment, and
Prime Minister Imran Khan will feel compelled to respond in some fashion.
So the next few days and weeks are really a time probably laden with considerable tension.
And we could see artillery barrages take place along the line of control.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And let's say that Pakistan does respond with artillery barrages or more.
What does India do in response to that?
SUMIT GANGULY: The Indians probably will return fire, especially in the form of artillery
barrages.
I doubt that the Indians would try to mount a second airstrike, because by now Pakistan's
air defenses are probably on a state of high alert and are likely to remain in the foreseeable
future.
The fact that their air defenses were penetrated by Indian aircraft is obviously a source of
considerable distress to Pakistani decision-makers, and particularly the overweening Pakistani
military establishment.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: The U.S. for many, many years has played something of a brokering
role between these two countries.
What role do you imagine the U.S. playing in trying to defuse this situation?
SUMIT GANGULY: Ideally, the U.S. would try and step in and try to broker some sort of
a peace.
But, at this moment, I think if the U.S. were to simply urge restraint in both Islamabad
and New Delhi, given the sentiments in New Delhi and in significant parts of Northern
India, that wouldn't be received very well.
I think at this point New Delhi would want Washington, D.C., to put -- to exert considerable
pressure on Pakistan, as it has done a few times in the recent past, particularly during
the 1999 Kargil War.
But suggesting that both sides exercise restraint probably wouldn't be very well-received in
New Delhi, though that is exactly what Islamabad would want under the circumstances.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All right, Sumit Ganguly, thank you very much.
SUMIT GANGULY: Thank you.