♪.
LARRY: UNFORTUNATELY MORE BAD
NUMBERS COMING OUT IN THE LAST
24, 48 HOURS GLOBALLY, AS WELL
AS HERE IN THE UNITED STATES.
HOUSING DOWNTURN, PMIs, LOUSY
DURABLE GOODS REPORT, ATLANTA
FED MARKED DOWN ITS GDP FOR THE
THIRD QUARTER AFTER THE FIRST
HALF WAS NEGATIVE.
I HATE BAD NEWS BUT YOU GOT TO
BE REALISTIC ABOUT THIS, OF
COURSE THE FED CROWD IS MEETING
IN JACKSON HOLE, THE MARKETS
WILL HAVE TO REACT TO THAT.
JOINING US JOHN CARNEY,
"BREITBART" NEWS ECONOMICS AN
FINANCE EDITOR.
"BREITBART" DIS, ALEX MARCH LOW,
"BREITBART NEWS" EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
AND "BREITBART" BUSINESS DIGEST.
ALEX, I DON’T WANT TO
SHORTCHANGE YOU.
YOU ACTUALLY HAVE TWO TITLES.
JOHN JUST HAS ONE TITLE.
FELLOWS, I LOVE READING YOU,
READING YOUR STUFF.
VERY GOOD PERSPECTIVE, VERY
ACCURATE.
>> THANKS, LARRY.
LARRY: ALEX, START WITH YOU,
GATHERING CLOUDS OF A GLOBAL
RECESSION, FROM THE PURCHASING
MANAGERS, GLOBAL PURCHASING
MANAGERS, THAT INCLUDES THE USA
I TAKE IT?
>> YEAH, IT DOES.
THIS IS A GLOBAL INDEX WHERE
THEY’RE LOOKING AT EUROPE,
THEY’RE LOOKING AT ASIA.
WE SAW BAD NUMBERS COMING OUT OF
AUSTRALIA, BAD NUMBERS COMING
OUT OF JAPAN, REALLY BAD STUFF
COMING OUT OF EUROPE SEEING TWO
ISSUES.
FIRST OF ALL, OF COURSE THERE IS
AND ENERGY CRISIS THERE BECAUSE
THEY GOT DEEPLY TIED DUE TO
THEIR GLOBALISM TO RUSSIA.
WE DON’T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
WINTER THERE.
ALSO WE’RE SEEING A MASSIVE GLUT
IN INVENTORY.
WE’RE SEEING A LOT OF PRODUCTS
FINALLY GETTING MADE AFTER THE
BIG PANDEMIC SLOWDOWN.
AND NOW PEOPLE DON’T WANT THEM
BECAUSE THEY’RE CONCERNED
ECONOMICALLY.
SO THERE IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INVENTORY THERE NOT GETTING SOLD
OFF.
LARRY: JOHN CARNEY, ALSO
INCLUDED IN THIS, THE OTHER
PIECE SERVICES SECTOR COLLAPSE
IN AUGUST AS DEMAND CRATERED AND
ECONOMY SHRANK FOR THE SECOND
STRAIGHT MONTH.
THAT IS WHAT THE PMI IS SHOWING.
SERVICES SECTOR IS ALREADY IN
TROUBLE.
WE’VE SEEN WEAKNESS IN THE
MANUFACTURING SECTOR.
IS THAT RIGHT, JOHN?
>> THAT’S RIGHT.
WE REALLY EXPECTED THE SERVICES
SECTOR TO BE GROWING RIGHT NOW,
EXCEPT THAT INFLATION CAME
AROUND.
INFLATION IS SO HIGH THAT IT IS
HURTING PEOPLE’S SPENDING ON
DISCRETIONARY.
SO INSTEAD OF GOING OUT TO EAT
YOU’RE SPENDING SO MUCH JUST FOR
GROCERIES, YOU CAN’T BRING YOUR
FAMILY OUT.
GASOLINE PRICES WERE VERY HIGH.
THEY HAVE COME DOWN BUT THEY
WERE VERY HIGH.
THAT CUT INTO FAMILY BENDING
JUTS.
WE THOUGHT WE WOULD SEE A HAND
OFF, SPEND ON GOODS, WE FILLED
THE OUR HOUSE WITH A LOT OF
STUFF DURING THE PANDEMIC AND
START SPENDING ON SERVICES.
THAT IS NOT SPENDING.
THAT IS PUTTING US IN DANGER OF
MUCH DEEPER DOWNTURN FROM THE
FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR.
LARRY: JOHN, FOLLOW UP ON THAT,
GAS PRICES COME DOWN A LITTLE
MORE THAN A BUCK.
GOOD, I REMEMBER WHEN THEY WERE
TWO DOLLARS A GALLON.
WE’LL LEAVE THAT ASIDE FOR
ANOTHER SEGMENT.
FOOD PRICES, GROCERY PRICES ARE
VERY HIGH AND RISING LIKE THE
THREE MONTH CHANGE IS FASTER
THAN THE 12 MONTH CHANGE, JOHN.
I DON’T THINK ANY AMOUNT OF
STUDENT DEBT CANCELLATION WILL
OFFSET RISING PRICES OF
GROCERIES?
>> IT WILL MAKE IT MUCH WORSE,
LARRY.
WHEN YOU TELL PEOPLE YOU DON’T
HAVE TO USE MONEY TO PAY YOUR
DEBTS ANYMORE ESPECIALLY YOUNG
PEOPLE?
YOUNG PEOPLE WILL SPEND.
THIS WILL ADD TO AGGREGATE
DEMAND WITHOUT PRODUCING ANYMORE
SUPPLY IN THE MARKET SO THIS IS
GOING TO LOWER SOME PEOPLES
ABILITY TO CONSUME BY RAISING
PRICES.
SO THIS IS PRO-INFLATIONARY.
I THINK IT IS GOING TO ADD
ALMOST HALF A PERCENTAGE POINT
TO INFLATION.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
THAT MEANS JEROME POWELL’S JOB
IS GOING TO BE EVEN HARDER.
THEY’RE GOING TO HAVE TO HIKE
EVEN FURTHER BECAUSE THE
INFLATIONARY PRESSURE COMING OUT
OF THIS ONE BILL.
LARRY: SO ALEX MARLOW, LET’S GO
THERE.
THE FED IS GATHERING.
THE GREAT, NEAR GREAT,
SOCIALISTS, BIG GOVERNMENT
CROWD, ET CETERA, ET CETERA,
THEY’RE ALL GOING TO
JACKSON HOLE WHICH IS A LOVELY
PLACE BUT THE QUESTION IS, WHAT
IS GOING TO COME OUT OF THAT?
BECAUSE YOU ALL HAVE BEEN
WRITING, I THINK IT HAS BEEN
VERY CLEVER GOOD STUFF, MANY
WAYS THE STOCK MARKET THOUGHT,
THAT MAY BE ERASES STOCK MARKET
IS OFF 1000 POINTS IN RECENT
DAYS BUT THE STOCK MARKET
THOUGHT JAY POWELL WAS BLUFFING
ABOUT FIGHTING INFLATION.
JOHN CARNEY SUGGESTING THAT LOAN
CANCELLATION BUSINESS COMBINED
WITH EVERYTHING GOING ON,
INFLATION MAY BE HIGHER, NOT
LOWER, WHAT DO YOU EXPECT COMING
OUT OF THE FED MEETING, ALEX?
>> WELL IT IS HARD TO KNOW BUT
WE KNOW THAT THE FED HAS ONLY
GOT ONE TOOL AND THAT IS TO
RAISE RATE.
IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW MUCH
THEY WOULD DO IT.
I GUESS THE INSIDE STRAIGHT FOR
THEM WOULD BE TO TRY TO RAISE
UNEMPLOYMENT UP A LITTLE BIT TO
TRY TO GET THE INFLATION UNDER
CONTROL BUT THAT OF COURSE RUNS
RISK OF A BIGGER SLOW DOWN
ECONOMICALLY THAN WHAT WE COULD
POSSIBLY SEE.
WE’RE ALREADY IN RECESSION
ACCORDING TO THE VAST MAJORITY
OF AMERICANS.
THAT IS I MY PERSONAL OPINION AS
WELL.
HE HAS A REAL PUZZLE TO PIECE
TOGETHER, IF HE RAISES RATES TOO
MUCH YOU COULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A
SLOW DOWN BEYOND WHAT WAS
NECESSARY.
LARRY: WELL, THE TIME FOR THAT,
YOU KNOW PUZZLING OVER THAT
TRADEOFF, JOHN, WAS A YEAR AGO.
I MEAN THE FED SHOULD HAVE
MOVED.
THEY DIDN’T.
THEY’RE TWIDDLING THEIR THUMBS.
>> THAT’S RIGHT.
LARRY: I ADDRESS IT TO BOTH OF
YOU.
LET ME ASK ONE MORE THING.
ALEX, ATLANTA FED GDP TRACKER
HAS BEEN MARKED DOWN AGAIN.
THEY’RE AT 2 1/2% FOR Q3, I
DON’T KNOW TWO WEEKS AGO.
1.6 NOW.
NOW 1.4.
I DON’T KNOW IF THAT IS GOING TO
STAY ABOVE WATER.
YOU THINK WE’RE IN A RECESSION.
I TEND TO AGREE.
THE ATLANTA FED MAY NOT BE
PERFECT.
IT IS AN INTERESTING TRACKER,
GIVING YOU THE SAME TRENDS YOU
ALL ARE REPORTING ON ALEX.
>> EXACTLY, LET’S NOT FORGET,
LARRY, WE CAME THROUGH A REAL
SURREAL NEWS CYCLE WE WERE SOLD
SOMETHING TO THE PUBLIC CALLED
THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT
WHICH DOES NOT REDUCE INFLATION.
THIS SHOULD BE A MASSIVE
SCANDAL.
THIS HAPPENED, WE LET IT GO
THROUGH THE NEWS CYCLE WEEK OR
TWO.
UNBELIEVABLE THING.
STUDENT LOAN FORGIVENESS IS NOT
REALLY LOAN FORGIVENESS.
IT IS DEBT TRANSFER FOR PEOPLE
WHO CHOSE TO GO TO WORK TO PAY
DOWN LOANS, IT IS ALL
INFLATIONARY.
LARRY: JOHN CARNEY, I’M DOING MY
BEST, JOHN, ON NIGHTLY BASIS.
I’M DOING MY BEST.
CAVALRY IS COMING.
>> YOU’RE DOING A GREAT JOB,
REPEAL THE BILL, REPEAL
SOCIALISM.
I’M TRYING TO REPEAL EVERYTHING.
NORMALLY I’M AN OPTIMISTIC
UPBEAT GUY.
SITTING AROUND TALKING ABOUT
REPEAL.
YOU GUYS ARE RIGHT, WE SHOULD
REPEAL ALL THIS STUFF.
THEY CAN’T EVEN PRODUCE THE
GOODS.
I DON’T HAVE THE TIME TO GO
THROUGH THE ECONOMIC FORECAST.
CAN’T EVEN PRODUCE THE GOODS FOR
GOD’S SAKES.
LESS THAN 2% A YEAR.