Hey, good Thursday afternoon everybody.
It is May the 25th, 2023.
I'm K Joe You, 11,
meteorologist Tim Pandages.
We are just six days out from
the start of the 2023 hurricane
season which begins on June 1st,
goes all the way to November 30.
I want to start things off
on the East Coast of Florida.
And the Carolinas in Georgia coastline here,
because this is visible satellie
imagery and if you look at it
carefully over the last several hours,
we do have a broad spin developing here.
Keep in mind this area is here ,
is right over the Gulf Stream,
a river, a very warm ocean wates
that would typically provide ful
to developing tropical systems.
So why am I showing you this?
Well, the National Hurricane Cer
has actually tagged this area.
At a low chance of development,
remember this year their outloos
go all the way out to seven day.
That's a change from only out
to five days last year.
So within seven days, after 48 hours,
between that and seven days,
it's got a 10% chance of develo.
So very,
very low if it was to somehow gt
going and get the name Arlene,
which is the first name on our .
It would join the last seven
of eight hurricane seasons that
have had preseason development.
That's prior to June 1st.
The only year in the last eight
that hasn't is last year.
Every other year since,
we've had a couple storms.
In fact, 2020, there were two.
In 2016,
there were two storms that came before
the official start of the seaso.
Now why there's low chances of s
developing into a tropical systm
is because it'll likely maintai.
Its fronts, its frontal feature.
Although a storm is likely,
it's unlikely to become tropica.
Regardless,
it's going to cause big impacts
along the coast of the Carolina,
out up through Georgia,
and even potentially into Virgi.
Big Beach weekend, Memorial Day weekend.
So rip current risk is elevated to high.
That is the third highest
weather related cause of death.
In the United States,
greater rain chances obviously ,
and large swells,
and potentially even some coastl
erosion there from the building
of this storm as it moves inlan.
So here's a look at our computer
models showing a development of
its of a coastal low at least
drifting inland right along the
border of North and South Carol,
hitting all the major beach
establishments there Saturday into Sunday.
How much rain? Potentially several inches.
Newest model guidance coming ine
Two to three to maybe isolated s
of four inches between Saturday and Sunday,
putting a big damper on those
beach plans in the Carolinas.
Speaking of the start of
hurricane season June 1st,
Today NOA had a news conference
releasing their outlook for
the Atlantic Basin season,
calling for a near normal activity overall.
The average is 14 named storms.
They're calling for 12 to
17 of those hurricanes 5
to 9, and of those one to four becoming a
category three major hurricane or greater.
Now a big player in this outloo,
although it is not the entire player on this,
is the sea surface temperaturesn
an area of the ocean and the Pac
Ocean off the coast of South America.
This is called the Enzo phase.
We're coming off of three consecutive
seasons of our hurricane season.
Of being facilitated by a La Nina setup
that's colder than normal waterf
the Pacific Coast of South Amer.
We're transitioning and in fact in many
cases probably already in an El Nino state,
which is a warmer than average p
in an area called the Nina 3.4 region.
That's well off the coast of South America.
And why that comes into play is because
this tends to increase the wind shear
that's over the Atlantic basin,
and wind shear is detrimental to tropical
development tends to tear them apart.
Here are our names for the 20.
2023 season. There are 21 of th.
The first on the list would be Arlene.
We'll see if we do get that off
the coast of the Carolinas.
Although unlikely,
there's still a 10% chance.
I want to finish up today with a lookout
in the Pacific because Guam gott
by a typhoon Mahwar just 24 hours ago.
It is since pulled away from Gu,
the US territory and really intensified,
is now a super typhoon.
Look at this sustained winds of.
MPH Extremely strong.
Now it's called the typhoon.
And you may be wondering what'se
difference between a typhoon and a hurricane.
Really nothing.
It's just all about the geograpy
and which basin it develops.
And we call storms hurricanes ie
Atlantic, East and Central Paci.
However, in the Western Pacific,
Will Mawar is that is called a typhoon.
All right,
That's all she wrote on this
hurricane update.
I hope you have a great Memorial Day weekend.
And enjoy the long weekend.
And of course,
remember our fallen heroes,
as Memorial Day is just for tha.
So keep that in mind.
We'll see you again back here
on YouTube for tropical updates
as we hit the season next week.