In December 2023, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
paid a high-profile visit to neighbouring Greece.
After years of tensions, the trip was hailed as a pivotal moment in bilateral relations.
But while it may have improved the general mood between Athens and Ankara, at least for now, there
are questions about whether it can last, let alone lead to a settlement of outstanding disputes.
So, is this really a breakthrough?
Or will it be yet another in a long line of stalled efforts
to transform relations between these two Mediterranean countries?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay,
and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
Often, the most important relationships
in international politics are between neighbouring countries.
While many states enjoy positive and productive ties to their neighbours,
others have a difficult or even conflictual relationship.
But in some cases, a rather more complex picture emerges.
While two countries may at times enjoy good or even friendly relations, at other times,
there can be tensions or outright hostility in what
can even become a cyclical pattern of confrontation and rapprochement.
One of the best examples centres on Greece and Turkey.
Building on a long and complex history over the past century,
relations have fluctuated between periods of good working ties and extreme tensions.
But the question that's now been asked is whether this can finally be broken.
More than most cases, the relationship between
Greece and Turkey is shaped - rightly or wrongly - by history.
Although their disputes are based on modern political and legal differences, how they
approach each other is fundamentally shaped by perceptions of the past.
While the history of Greece stretches back into antiquity,
our story really starts with the division of the Roman Empire in 395 AD.
Predominantly Greek-speaking and Orthodox Christian,
the eastern half - now more generally known as the Byzantine Empire - continued
after the final fall of the Western Roman Empire in the 5th Century.
However, with the emergence of Islam in the 7th Century, it steadily began to lose territory.
This accelerated after the Seljuk Turks, who migrated down from Central Asia,
became the dominant force in the Muslim World.
Pushing up into the Anatolian Peninsula,
the heart of the Byzantine Empire, the two armies fought at Manzikert in 1071.
This paved the way for the eventual conquest of Anatolia by various Turkic tribes,
including a small group that emerged in the late 13th century.
Named after their first leader, Osman, the Ottoman Turks rapidly conquered much of what remained of
the Byzantine Empire until, in 1453, they finally overran the imperial capital, Constantinople.
While the Greeks would live under Ottoman Turkish rule for the next three and a half centuries,
things were changing by the start of the 19th century.
With the emergence of modern nation-states in Western Europe,
Greek national Consciousness grew, leading to a revolt against Ottoman control.
In 1830, an independent Greek Kingdom emerged centred on the Peloponnese in southern Greece.
From the start, the new state sought to unite all the Greeks living in the Eastern Mediterranean,
and over the following decades the kingdom gradually expanded.
After taking in Central Greece and the Ionian Islands in the 19th century,
it gained control of Crete at the start of the 20th century before securing
Macedonia during the Balkan Wars, just prior to the First World War.
Despite this growth, several key territories - including Constantinople,
Cyprus, and Asia Minor - remained out of reach.
However, the chance to claim Anatolia came at the end of the First World War.
As the Ottoman Empire lay defeated, Greece invaded Asia Minor.
But while the Greek army initially made significant gains, Turkish nationalist
forces soon mobilised, and in October 1922, the Greek army was defeated and forced to retreat.
On 24 July 1924, Greece and the new Republic of Turkey signed the Treaty of Lausanne.
As well as establishing their modern borders, it also required
the demilitarisation of certain islands.
In addition, the two countries agreed to a population exchange.
This would eventually see almost all Orthodox Christians in Turkey and Muslims in Greece
relocated - although exceptions were made for the sizable communities in Istanbul and Thrace.
Over the next decade, relations quickly improved under the leadership of the Greek Prime Minister,
Eleftherios Venizelos, and the Turkish President, Mustafa Kamal Atatürk.
In addition to signing a series of bilateral agreements,
the two countries concluded a Treaty of Friendship, Neutrality, Conciliation,
and Arbitration in 1930 and a Cordial Friendship Pact in 1933.
And in 1934, they reached a joint defence alliance with Romania and Yugoslavia.
Despite this progress, ties were strained during the Second World War.
Although Greece was invaded and occupied by the Axis powers,
Turkey remained neutral until the last days of the war and imposed a punitive
tax that hit the Greek community in the country particularly hard.
Nevertheless, relations soon recovered, and in 1952, as the Cold War took off, the two countries
joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO - the central pillar of Western defence.
Despite all the progress that had been made, the period of good relations ended in the mid-1950s.
Although Greece had gained the Dodecanese from Italy in 1947,
one final territory remained unclaimed: Cyprus.
Passed by the Ottomans to British colonial Administration in 1878,
the island was formerly ceded to Britain under the terms of the Treaty of Lausanne.
But despite pleas from the Greek Cypriot population to
be allowed to join with Greece, London refused.
And in April 1955 an armed campaign was launched to force Britain out and unite with Greece.
This immediately led to tensions between Greece and Turkey as the Turkish Cypriots,
representing a fifth of the population, called for the island to be partitioned between the
two countries, and anti-greek rioting erupted in Istanbul.
As fears grew that a civil war in Cyprus could pull in Greece and Turkey,
thus undermining a critical flank of NATO, Athens and Ankara reached a compromise.
In August 1960, Cyprus became an independent republic based on a
power-sharing agreement between the communities to be guaranteed by Britain, Greece, and Turkey.
Although the events in Cyprus had undermined relations between Athens and Ankara,
there were nevertheless hopes for a return to the good relations of the past.
However, these hopes were short-lived.
In December 1963, the constitutional arrangements in Cyprus broke down, and fighting erupted.
While a UN peacekeeping force eased the situation on the island,
tensions nevertheless continued between the communities and between Athens and Ankara.
But the breaking point would come a decade later.
In July 1974, the military junta then ruling Greece overthrew the
Cypriot president in a last-ditch attempt to secure unification.
Citing its right to protect the constitutional order,
Turkey invaded on 20 July, seizing control of a third of the island - a division that
remains a fundamental point of contention between Greece and Turkey to this day.
Meanwhile, tensions had emerged in other areas,
especially following the discovery of oil in the Aegean in the early 1970s.
While Turkey argued that the continental shelf - the seabed - was an extension of
the Anatolian Peninsula, Greece argued that it belonged to the Greek islands.
While Greece attempted to bring the matter before the International Court of Justice,
the Court ruled it had no jurisdiction to hear the case without Turkey's agreement.
After that, many other new issues arose.
These included a dispute over territorial waters and airspace.
Under the Treaty of Lausanne, Greece was allowed three nautical miles,
which was later extended to six miles in 1936.
However, the 1983 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea permitted an extension to 12 miles.
Arguing this would make the Aegean a Greek lake, the Turkish parliament
passed a resolution making any Greek extension a justification for war.
On top of this, rows also broke out over air Traffic control in the Aegean,
the militarisation of certain islands, and minority rights in Thrace.
This would come to a head in March 1987 when a significant new crisis erupted
when Turkey began oil exploration in the Aegean.
After narrowly averting an armed conflict, the two leaders met at
the World Economic Forum in Davos in 1988 and promised to improve relations.
But while the meeting was hailed as a new start for the two countries, the talks went nowhere.
Instead, new problems emerged.
In 1996, a Turkish ship ran around on an uninhabited islet in the Aegean.
While Greece insisted that its sovereignty over the territory was clear, Ankara
disagreed - marking the start of what's become known as the "Grey Zones" issue.
In 1999, yet another crisis erupted.
This time sparked when the leader of the Kurdish Workers Party, the PKK, which was
waging an Insurgency in Turkey's southeast, was arrested as he left the Greek Embassy in Kenya.
As Turkey's most wanted man, this was seen as a fundamental betrayal by Ankara.
But while the two countries came close to conflict, everything changed just a few
months later when Greece and Turkey were hit by two major earthquakes.
This sparked a dramatic new period of rapprochement between Athens and Ankara,
including Greece's momentous decision to lift its long-standing veto on
Turkey's candidacy for European Union membership.
Hailed as a major breakthrough, bilateral relations improved
dramatically over the following years.
As well as signing many agreements, intergovernmental cooperation increased,
and they even launched exploratory talks on addressing the continental shelf - although
Greece continued to insist that there was nothing to discuss on territorial waters or airspace.
Meanwhile, broader relations also flourished as cultural links, tourism, and trade grew all.
This improved even further following the emergence of a new Turkish leader,
Recept Tayyip Erdogan, in late 2002.
Stressing his commitment to Turkey's EU membership,
he prioritised relations with Greece and solving Cyprus.
And although a reunification effort failed in 2004, when the Greek Cypriots
rejected a UN settlement plan, Turkey began EU membership talks in 2005.
But despite the upbeat mood at the turn of the millennium,
the jubilation was wearing off by the end of the decade.
Although the sides created a High-Level Cooperation Council in 2009,
the outstanding issues remained unresolved, with seemingly endless talks about talks on
how to tackle the question of the Aegean continental shelf.
Meanwhile, Erdogan was becoming ever more authoritarian and
increasingly estranged from the West.
As Turkey-EU negotiations stalled, relations with Greece deteriorated.
This came to International attention in 2015,
when Ankara allowed over a million migrants to cross the Aegean in small boats.
After that, matters continued to worsen.
Although Erdogan visited Greece in 2017 - the first Turkish presidential visit in 65
years - the trip was a disaster when he called for the Treaty of Lausanne to be modernised.
Seen as an attempt to open debate on boundaries, the Greek president immediately rejected the idea.
Meanwhile, another attempt to resolve Cyprus that summer failed,
leading Ankara to call for a two-state solution.
Since, then relations have also been undermined as
Turkey has become increasingly vocal about its territorial claims in the wider Mediterranean.
Fed by growing energy finds in the region in recent years,
Ankara signed a maritime agreement with Libya covering an area claimed by Greece,
and launched oil exploration close to the Greek islands.
Additionally, over the course of 2022,
the number of incursions by Turkish military aircraft over the Aegean islands sharply
increased - traditionally a good indicator of broader tensions between the two countries.
But as Greece and Turkey marked the centenary of
the Treaty of Lausanne in 2023, things appeared to be changing.
Once again, a devastating earthquake in Turkey drove
rapprochement as Greece quickly sent emergency rescue teams to the area.
And at the same time, having one reelection and facing growing economic problems at home,
Erdogan seemed to have decided to mend relations with Western partners, including Greece.
And it's against this backdrop that his brief visit to Greece on
7 December was hailed as a new start in relations.
Calling for the Aegean to become a "sea of peace" and stating that no problem was unsolvable,
Erdogan and his Greek counterpart, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis,
signed 15 bilateral agreements, covering everything from energy to agriculture.
Moreover, they also agreed on a non-binding 10-point declaration of friendly relations.
This included a commitment to political dialogue; confidence building measures;
a joint action plan for cooperation in various areas; and a commitment to resolve
disputes amicably through direct consultations or other means as provided for in the UN Charter.
But as welcome as all this is, there's nevertheless a sense of deja vu.
Greece and Turkey have been here many times before.
The reality is that without settling the outstanding bilateral issues as well as Cyprus,
any new attempt at a fresh start - as welcome as it is - will only last until the next crisis.
For all these reasons, and without wishing to sound unduly negative,
one just can't help but suspect that this is merely the latest in
a long cycle of ups and downs between these two Mediterranean neighbours.
I hope you found that helpful.
If so, here's another video that you might like.
Thanks so much for watching, and see you in the next video.