YOU SO MUCH IN CHICAGO.
TURNING TO TRADE, PRESIDENT
TRUMP SIGNING TWO BILLS
SUPPORTING HONG KONG PROTEST
DESPITE WARNINGS FROM BEIJING.
ADDING MORE UNCERTAINTY TO
ONGOING TRADE TALKS THIS WAS TOP
OFFICIALS FROM PUSSING MEXICO
CANADA INCHING CLOSER TO
AGREEING ON CHANGE USMCA
ACCORDING TO TOP U.S. OFFICIAL
AND JOIN US RIGHT NOW SENIOR
FIRST AND FOREMOST HAPPY THANKS
GIVE JOHN.
MAKE SENSE OF THE U.S. MCA AND
WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE CHINA
TRADE TALKS.
>> WELL, SO USMCA DEMOCRATS ARE
KIND OF MOVING TOWARDS AGREE
WITH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ON
VOTING FOR THIS BILL THAT'S GOOD
NEWS FOR IT IS GOOD NEWS FOR
MIDWEST IT IS GOOD NEWS FOR
FARMERS.
YOU KNOW, AND IT IS A PIECE OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT'SING BEING
TAKEN OFF THE TABLE ON CHINA
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
CHINESE WOULD UNFAVORABLY TO
HONG KONG LEGISLATION.
BUT THE NEWS THAT'S COME OUT OF
CHINA IN THE LAST DAY HAS BEEN
KIND OF QUIET ON THAT FRONT.
THEY SEEM LIKE THEY'RE NOT GOING
TO LET IT GET IN THE WAY OF
FINISHING U.S. CHINA TRADE DEAL.
ALL YOU TAKE IT ALTOGETHER, WHAT
YOU HAVE IS ON TRADE FRONT WHICH
I THINK IS GOOD NEWS FOR U.S.
BUSINESS.
>> ANYBODY?
>> JOHN, THE CHINA TRADE DEAL
SEEMS TO BE BAKED INTO THE
MARKET AT LEAST SOMETHING, AND
MAYBE IT IS JUST LOW INTEREST
RATES THAT ARE GETTING MARKETS
RUN UP AND SEEMS LIKE THING IS
BAKED INTO THE MARKET.
WHAT IF IT JUST DOESN'T HAPPEN.
IS THIS BECOMES A FREE FALL
RIGHT AS THE ELECTION PROCESS IS
PLAYING OUT?
I DON'T SEE THAT BEING GOOD FOR
ADMINISTRATION.
>> WELL IT LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING
IS GOING TO HAPPEN AND THIS
THING I KEEP HARPING ON IS WE
HAVE TO BE CAREFUL WITH OUR USE
OF THE WORD DEAL WHEN WE TALK
ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH U.S.
WITH U.S. IN CHINA.
I THINK BOTH SIDES AGREED TO
STOP ESCALATING.
THERE WASN'T IT WASN'T HELPING
U.S. POSITION IT WASN'T HELPING
CHINA.
YOU KNOW WITH ABOUT INCREASING
TIT FOR TAT TARIFFS GONG ON
EARLIER IN THE YEAR ESPECIALLY
IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER --
YOU KNOW THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION THE WHITE HOUSE
WANTS TO SETTLE THINGS DOWNGOING
INTO AN LECH YEAR.
AND THE CHINESE HAVE BEEN HIT
REALLY HARD THEIR ECONOMY HAS
BEEN HIT REALLY HARD --
NOT ONLY BY THE TARIFFS
THEMSELVES BUT ALL OF THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER
THEY'RE GOING TO KEEP RISING.
SO I THINK WHAT WE HAVE IS
SOMETHING LIKE A TRUCE FOR NEXT
YEAR, IT IS NOT A DEAL, THOUGH,
IT IS NOT LIKE THE U.S. PROBLEMS
WITH CHINA ON ISSUES LIKE
TECHNOLOGY TRANSPORT
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
PROTECTION, OR STATE OWN
ENTERPRISE.
NONE OF THOSE THINGS ARE REALLY
CLEARLY BEING RESOLVED.
>> JOHN POLITICALLY THAT WORKS
TO THE PRESIDENT ADVANTAGE YOU
DO A --
PHASE ONE, AN YOU WITH RATCHET
DOWN THE FIGHT PARTICULARLY OVER
TARIFFS WHICH HELPS GIVE THE
ECONOMY SOME BALANCE HERE BUT
THEN YOU STILL HAVE THESE
OUSTANDING ISSUES WHICH ALLOW
PRESIDENT TRUMP TO LOOK TOUGH IN
THE COMING YEAR DURING ELECTION.
I WANT TO TURN TO THAT BECAUSE
YOU WROTE JOHN HAS A STORY IN
WALL STREET JOURNAL TODAY TRUMP
AND 2020 ECONOMY, COAUTHORED IT
THIS ARTICLE A TIGHT JOB MARKET
INSULATING SLOWING ECONOMY AND
PERHAPS PRESIDENT TRUMP TOO.
AND YOU SAID EXCEPTIONALLY LOW
PUN EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC
CHANGES COULD WELL BE A BUFFER
FOR THE PRESIDENT IN THE 2020
ELECTIONS.
TELL US MORE ABOUT THIS ARTICLE.
>> HERE'S WHAT WE FOUND WE WENT
TO WISCONSIN AND LOOKED AT WHAT
WAS GOING ON THERE.
WISCONSIN IS VERY HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON FARMING AND
FACTORIES.
MORE THAN 20% OF THEIR OUTPUT
COMES FROM FARM AND FACTORIES,
AND THE ECONOMY HAS CLEARLY
SLOWED AND WE WANTED TO SEE WELL
WHAT'S HAPPENING AS A RESULT OF
THAT SLOWING.
AND IT IS ACTUALLY VERY
INTERESTING.
YOU KNOW, I LOOKED AT COMPANIES
THAT WERE ANNOUNCING LAYOFFS,
AND WHAT WAS HAPPENING WHEN A
COMPANY ANNOUNCE A LAYOFF WAS
BECAUSE THERE'S SO MANY WORK
PERCENT SHORTAGES THOSE WORKERS
WERE GETTING SEVERANCE PACKAGES
AND GETTING SCOOPED UP IN A
MATTER OF DAYS AND OTHER FIRMS.
YOU KNOW, SOME COMPANIES WERE
HOLDING JOB FAIRS ON THEIR
FACTORY FLOORS WHEN THEY
ANNOUNCE LAYOFF AND BOMB
BARRELEDDED WITH XET TORES
WRAPPED, YOU KNOW, WHO WERE
COMING IN AND TRYING TO SCOOP UP
WORKERS.
SO IN THE PAST WHEN WE HAVE
HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT, A LAYOFF
COULD MEAN SIX MONTHS, 18
MONTHS, TWO YEAR OF UNEMPLOYMENT
AND RETRAINING, AND
DISLOCATION --
NOW WE HAVE A QUOTE IN THE STORY
THAT DISLOCATED WORKERS ARE A
HOT COMOTDTY IT IS A REAL
BUFFER.
YOU KNOW WORKERS DON'T HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT NEXT PAYCHECK AND
KEEP SPENDING WITH AND CONSUMER
SPENDING HOLDS UP AND I THINK
THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING HAPPEN
RIGHT NOW.
>> IT IS NOT THE ECONOMY
STIEWPGD BUT LABOR MARKET THAT
MATTERS I THINK THAT'S GOING TO
PROVE PIVOTAL IN UPCOME ELECTION
AND WHAT YOU'RE SEEING TAKING
PLACE IS BECAUSE OF DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE SLOWER LABOR FORCE GROWTH
IS REQUIRES LESS IN TERMS OF
PAYROLL GROWTH LESS IN TERMS OF
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TO PREVENT THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FROM RISING.
SO THAT'S WHAT'S HAT WORK HERE.
>> WHAT WE USED TO SEE IS
PROCESS FEED ONLY THEMSELVES THE
ECONOMY WOULD SLOW DOWN
COMPANIES LAYOFF WORKERS WORKERS
CUT BACK SPENDING THAT HURT
PROFITS THEN MORE LAYOFFS WE'RE
NOT SEEING THAT KIND OF FEEDING
ON ITSELF MECHANISM YET.
>> I GOT THIS SENSATION IT WAS
ALMOST LIKE YOU'RE SAYING IF THE
ECONOMY WASN'T SO STRONG THIS
AREA WOULD BE REALLY HURT BY THE
TRUMP TRADE WAR BUT THEY'RE NOT
BECAUSE THE QUESTION READING
THAT IS DO YOU THINK TRUMP WOULD
START THE TRADE WAR WITH CHINA
IF THERE WASN'T THAT STRONG
BACKSTOP TO PICK UP THOSE
LABOR --
THE LABOR THAT WOULD GET LOST IN
THE TRADE WAR OR THAT WAS A
COINCIDENCE THAT HE GOT?
>> WELL I THINK HE WAS --
BEEN EMBOLDENED BY IT AND MADE
VERY CLEAR COMING INTO OFFICE
THAT HE WANTED TO REWRITE TRADE
DEALS THAT HE FELL THAT U.S. HAS
BEEN TREATED UNFAIRY IN --
IN NAFF TAP AND CERTAINLY BY THE
CHINESE SO HE WAS GOING TO DO
THAT.
BUT I THINK HE'S BEEN EMBOLDENED
TO PUSH IT ESPECIALLY HARD
BECAUSE YOU HAVE THE STOCK
MARKET DOING VERY WELL AND
ECONOMY DOING WELL.
>> THE POLICY AND TAX A CUT
AGAIN IT GIVES A COMPANY MORE
WIGGLE ROOM DOES IT NOT TO NOT
LAY PEOPLE OFF BECAUSE AGAIN
THERE'S THAT SAVING SO A LOT OF
THIS IS NOT JUST KIND OF --
SO THAT WOULD --
PUT OUT OF NOWHERE.
IS THAT THERE'S --
PROTECTION WITH THE FARM IS
SELLING SOYBEANSES TO CHINA SO
THAT'S --
>> I'M TALKING ABOUT OTHER
COMPANIES.
EMPLOYERS --
AND OTHER THING IS THOSE TAX
CUTSES THAT WAS KIND OF A 2018
STORY THAT TAX CUTS WERE AING
BIG BOOST TO ECONOMY IN 2018 IN
2019 PIVOTED TOWARDS TRADE
POLICY BINS OF THE TAX CUTS WORE
OFF A LITTLE BIT AND THE
UNCERTAINTY FROM TRADE HIT SO
THERE WAS NO DOUBT IN THE
ECONOMY HAS SLOWED DOWN.
BUT THE POINT HERE IS THAT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF VERY LOW
UNEMPLOYMENT WE CAN, WE CAN
WEATHER A SLOWDOWN IN A WAY THAT
DOESN'T SERIOUSLY HURT WORKERS.
WHY DOES UNEMPLOYMENT WHY IS IT
STAYING SO LOW?
IF THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING WHY IS
THIS --
WHY IS THAT CYCLE THAT YOU
DESCRIBED NOT APPARENT IN THIS
DAY AND AGE?
>> BECAUSE THERE'S SO MANY
WORKERS SHORTAGES OUT THERE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT ABOUT --
YOU MENTIONED RIGHT IN A PLACE
LIKE WISCONSIN --
YOU KNOW, WHERE THERE ARE ALL
KINDS OF JOB OPENINGS THAT
AREN'T BEING FILLED WHEN YOU LAY
SOMEONE OFF, THEY'RE GOING OUT
AND FILLING ONE OF THOSE OTHER
JOB OPENINGS.
YOU KNOW WE KEEP TALKING ABOUT
HOW THERE ARE MORE JOB OPENINGS
THAN THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE
UNEMPLOYED.
SO YOU CAN MANAGE THIS SLOWDOWN
WITHOUT GETTING THAT
SELF-FEEDING PROCESS WHERE
SOMEONE GET LAID OFF.
STOP SPENDING MONEY IT HURTS
CORPORATE PROFITS COMPANIES
LAYOFF EVEN MORE PEOPLE.
YOU KNOW WE'RE SEEING STOP TO
THAT.
NOW, I THINK THAT PRESIDENT AND
ADVISORS UNDERSTAND IF THEY KEPT
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDE
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDW
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDU
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDD
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDG
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDT
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDI
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDT
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDO
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDT
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDA
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDT
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDH
PUSH THIS TRADE WAR REALLY HARDD
SELF-FEEDING PROCESS AND DOESN'T
WANT THAT IN 2020 BUT DOING A
TRUCE AND LET'S JUST HOLD OFFICE
ON ESCALATING THIS ANYMORE WITH
THE CHINESE.
WE'RE PROBABLY GOING TO GET, YOU
KNOW, MORE AGRICULTURAL
PURCHASES FROM CHINA.
BUT THE BIG ISSUE HAVEN'T BEEN
RESOLVED ARE PROBLEM WITH CHINA
IS A LONG RUN ISSUE THAT YOU
KNOW WE'RE JUST KIND OF GOING
FOR A LITTLE WHILE.