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Welcome back to State of the Union.
The final push until Election Day.
Just a couple of days away.
Thank you so much.
Our panel is here.
Michael Smerconish,
you just came down
from the great Commonwealth
of Pennsylvania.
What are your thoughts on
what you're seeing there in that?
Just more broadly?
Broadly,
there's a consensus that's formed.
It's based on the polling data,
the betting markets, which I pay
attention to.
Maybe most importantly,
the travel schedules of the principles
like where people being deployed
and where's the money being spent.
It would all have to be wrong
for there
to be something
other than a huge victory
for Republicans on Tuesday night,
which I anticipate.
The only saving grace,
I think, for Democrats
could be
that the Republican vote
has been undervalued
in the last few cycles.
And maybe pollsters
have this time overcompensated for that.
But I think that's a stretch.
You came from the real world also.
Yes.
No, I
actually think that you're
seeing Republican pollsters
kind of flood
the market with some polling
that may not be the best in the world.
But I do think Democrats
are going to have a better night
than people expect.
And the reason being is
I think Democrats will
we probably won't know
who wins the Senate until after Georgia
which will probably be December.
But on Tuesday night,
you're going to see Democrats
maintain or win
governors mansions in states
that really matter.
You're going to have Wisconsin
you're going to have Michigan.
You're going to have Pennsylvania.
Those states matter.
And why do those states matter?
Because of 20, 24.
And you're also going to have Wes Moore,
who's going to flip Maryland.
And so you're going to have
some victories,
although we
probably won't take back the House or
keep the House.
We're going to maintain the Senate.
And those governor's
mansions really matter.
Well, I'm looking forward
to getting Michael's advice
on the betting markets
because I think they're but
but I think that, look,
I think it's to be a great night
for Republicans.
I think that Kevin McCarthy
has been underappreciated.
The fact that in 2010
he didn't give up an incumbent
and now he's on the cusp of winning
20 to 25 additional seats.
I think we pick up the Senate
and I actually think we're going to win
a couple of governor's mansions.
And so I think it's
will be a very big night
for Republicans
Hillary, you have a different take
maybe than Bakari on Democrats. Yeah.
I mean I,
I think Mark is as a Democrat
I'm, I'm a loyal Democrat,
but I am not happy.
I just think that we are,
you know,
we did not listen
to voters in this election
and I think
we're going to have a bad night
and you know, this conversation's
not going
to have much impact on Tuesday,
but I hope it has an impact going forward
because when voters
tell you over and over and over again
that they care mostly about the economy,
listen to them.
Stop talking about democracy
being at stake.
Democracy is at stake
because people are fighting
so much about what elections mean.
I mean, voters have told us
what they wanted to hear.
And I don't think Democrats
have really delivered.
I think that's actually very true
about the national messaging
that's going on.
But you actually have
some good candidates
who are following your advice.
You have people like Mark Kelly,
who was running a great race.
You have people like Raphael Warnock,
who's running
a great race
with Josh Shapiro
saying those places, Fetterman
and Tim Ryan are,
you know, the unfortunate
combination of strong
gubernatorial candidates.
You know, like Mark Kelly is a pop.
I was just in Arizona and spent some time
there, talked to a bunch of voters.
Mark Kelly's popular
But Cory like is more popular.
And the combination of Carrie
Lake's popularity and Joe Biden's
unpopularity is going to hurt Mark Kelly.
And so I think we're going to work.
We're in trouble
because of the top of the ticket.
Are you going to
interrupt her and disagree?
I don't want to break up them
on Dem violence,
but I feel like
I feel like Blake
Masters can win Arizona
because the reality is that
the border is a serious issue down there.
And to Hillary's point, they're not.
The Democrats have not talk about how
what are we going to do to fix inflation
a 40 year high?
What are we going to do
to control the border?
What are we going to handle crime?
It's not the facts, Mark.
I don't think we're in trouble
because of facts. Oh, I do.
I think that's a huge problem.
You guys are the reality for a reality
is inflation
hit a 40 year high because of specifics.
You guys didn't.
You were in office for a long time.
Border crisis wasn't funny.
You never know.
You never got it all because of work.
Let's say we
we have an economic story to tell.
People actually like our policies
better on the economy. You're kidding.
I have not been doing one footnote
to file away for Tuesday night.
As those Pennsylvania returns come in.
Josh Shapiro,
I think, is going to win
handily against Doug Mastriano,
but it'll be capped
in terms of the impact
on the rest of the ticket,
because no longer can Pennsylvania
As we say, Paul, the big ticket,
you've got to vote
each race individually.
We have a history of ticket splitting.
It might be to the benefit of Dr. Oz.
That's fascinating.
Okay, let's I know
obviously we are two days away from
20, 22 in the midterms, but 20, 24.
The whole question of
will Donald Trump
run seems to be answered.
He hasn't, of course, announced,
but he's made pretty clear
that he's close.
And one of the big tells
is he's already going
after potential GOP rivals
listen to what he said
about Ron DeSantis,
the governor of Florida, last night.
We're
winning big, big, big
in the Republican Party.
For the nomination
like nobody's ever seen before.
Let's say there it is Trump at 71
Ron to sanctimonious said 10%
Mike Pence
at 70 Mike's doing better than I thought
Mark.
Well I think that's a pretty
not laughing at you Mark.
I'm just saying
I know that
because I think
that was a pretty lame attack on
on DeSantis.
But I think the more telling
Pence was in there too
I think the more telling sign frankly
was the notion last week
you saw news that
the DOJ was to give independent counsel
for indictments
coming against President Trump.
And I think he feels like
he wanted to actually be announced sooner
because he wanted credit
for the midterm success
and he wants to get ahead
of those impending indictments
because then he can say, see, look,
Biden's DOJ is only going after
he because I'm an announced candidate.
So I think that was really
the more telling sign about a week ago.
I want to put up something
that another person
who's thinking about running
for the Republican nomination
and Mike Pompeo,
who is in the Trump Cabinet, said he
tweeted, not tired of winning at Governor
Ron DeSantis.
You've proven
conservative policies worked.
Florida is better for it.
Vote for Ron DeSantis.
Trump is better than any kid
I ever met at the playground at ranking.
I think that's what this is called
in terms of assigning nicknames
that stick.
And I think, frankly,
he may have a winner.
With regard to DeSantis, time will tell.
For me,
the big takeaway
is it's the clearest sign
he really is getting in
and is about to announce
that's the best means
Democrats are going to have.
I mean, listen, there's no
there's no better foil
for Democrats than Donald Trump,
somebody who is facing indictment.
Careful what you wish for.
Well,
I mean,
we wish for it
and we wished for it in 2016.
And we failed in that
for a number of reasons.
And then we actually were able
to beat him soundly in 20, 20.
And so what I do
believe though is Democrats
actually rally around
messaging that as opposed to everything
Donald Trump stands for
is extremely clear
in the closing message
we have now,
although it's not listening to voters
may actually work
against somebody like Donald Trump.
Well you know,
you have this situation where
a a nasty Republican primary
is probably good for Democrats, but
because
the nastier Donald
Trump is
and by the way,
Ron DeSantis is sanctimonious.
He just
I was trying to say it
perfect, just released an ad this week
comparing himself to God.
So as a creation
so that
the fact that you will
be reminding voters of what
they actually rejected about Donald
Trump will actually be helped.
Mark,
I wanted to ask you
if you think
that Donald Trump's timing here
has anything to do,
also not just with the midterms,
but with trying to get ahead of
your former boss and close confidant
Mike Pence.
He's going on a book tour
and Donald Trump is going to
maybe try to step on that as well.
Is that A
that wouldn't be out of character
for the former president.
But I also think that in some ways,
to help
elevate the book
tour and draw more attention,
I think is
the former vice president travels
the country.
He's more
and more encouraged
by what people tell him
about wanting
a different style of leadership
and a level of competent leadership
in this country that we've been missing.
So I think could actually
just elevate it.
I think we just saw the
beginning of the Mike Pence,
the Mike Pence.
Pence. All right.
All right, guys.
Roger Pence out to say things
about January six
that he really hasn't said.
All right, guys. Thank you so much.