The South Pacific, the first thing that comes to mind are sublime beaches, luxury resorts and the
rich cultures of people with cool tattoos. It is as if in this part of the world,
except for the occasional shipwreck, nothing ever happens, as if time itself has stopped
and everything on these remote islands remains calm, harmonious and peaceful.
But, wait a minute, this is VisualPolitik: what if I told you that the Pacific is once again
becoming an absolutely crucial region for the geopolitics of the great world powers?
You don’t believe me? Well, take a look:
N1(China's Foreign Minister is about to meet with 10 Pacific nations. The outcome could
have big ramifications for Australia – ABC) And yes, okay, I know what many of you are
thinking at this very moment: who on earth would be interested in all those tiny,
remote islands that dot the South Pacific? It is true, at first glance they do not seem
to have anything interesting to offer: they tend to be rather poor enclaves, highly dependent on
tourism and fishing and, to top it off, they can be extremely vulnerable to global warming.
Well, guess what? If you think this way, you might be very wrong.
Think about it, except for the larger and wealthy islands of Australia and New Zealand, the rest
are tiny island States. And then there is Papua New Guinea, which is quite big but very poor.
However, do you know how much total space they occupy on the world map? Well... Pay attention.
We are talking about no less than 15% of the entire global surface. In other words,
all these islands have jurisdiction over an area that is three times larger than the entire
continental surface of the United States! In this gigantic space, it is these small countries that
have control over any activity that takes place. Surprised? You shouldn't be. After all, if this
region wasn't important, why did the former Empire of Japan put so much effort into taking it over
completely during the Second World War? The reality is that the little known and lost
South Pacific has an awesome strategic importance. However, that did not prevent this region of the
world from falling into oblivion when it began to become independent between the 1960s and 1980s.
But take note, because today the story has changed again.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, China has been trying to woo small island States to become
not only its main partner, but also its main economic and political model. In fact, that move
is exactly what explains news stories like this: N2(Chinese hospital ship cruises the South Pacific
to spread influence – Asia Nikkei) Of course, the United States has
started to pay attention, and Australia is already in fifth gear, which, after all,
is why they are the great regional power. However, Xi Jinping's regime is offering deals
that are almost impossible to refuse and that far exceed the West's gamble over recent decades.
So, the question we can all ask ourselves is: how far does China's influence in the
South Pacific extend? Why does this region suddenly seem so important? Can Australia
and the United States regain their political dominance in this remote part of the world?
In this video we will answer all these questions, but first let's take a look at some history.
T1(THE DREAM OF THE SOUTH)
I'm sure that, unless you live there, apart from the occasional travel documentary on TV
or here on YouTube, most of you have never really stopped to think about this part of
the world. Many of you may not have even heard of some of the countries that lie in these waters.
And you would certainly never recognize them as having the slightest political relevance.
However, VisualPolitik friends, for a long time, these islands were much more than
beach locations for travel programs and dodgy reality shows: they were strategic enclaves.
The South Pacific is divided into three different regions:
On the one hand, there is Polynesia, which is the largest region and extends
to Easter Island itself (you know, the one with the big stone head monuments);
then there is Micronesia, which, as its name suggests, has the smallest islands;
and finally Melanesia, which is characterized because its population tends to be darker.
Not surprisingly, none of these three regions escaped European colonialism.
The first arrival took place in 1513. Its protagonist was the Spanish explorer and
conqueror Vasco Núñez de Balboa. From that moment on, Dutch, German, French and English voyages
continued to follow one after the other. In the 18th century, Europeans began to
develop plantations, mainly sugar plantations. However, the strategic importance of this region
did not become clear until the two world wars of the 20th century. It was then that it became
evident that the South Pacific is a crucial region for maintaining Australia's connection
to the United States and the rest of Asia. Don't forget that Australia is not only a very
important ally of the United States, it is also a huge repository of all kinds of natural resources.
However, once World War Two ended, the South Pacific ceased to be of interest to the great
powers. The islands gained their independence and Australia became the area's police.
During that time, practically the only relevant movement was the arrival of a few tourists.
However, when the day came that the People's
Republic of China set its sights on this region... Everything changed.
Think about it, in the event of a conflict, Chinese presence in the area could prevent
the United States from using Australia as a resupply center for its operations in the
region. In other words, by getting a foothold in this region, China could prevent the growing
alliance that Washington is forging with Canberra and Tokyo from being effective.
Let’s take a look. T2(THE CHINESE DREAM)
It has already become a familiar story: in all those former colonies of Europe that are
still eminently poor, China is moving like a fish in water to try to gain advantage.
On VisualPolitik we have already told you about the growing presence of the Asian
giant in Sub-Saharan Africa. Well, the South Pacific is no different.
We are talking about growing ties that, until relatively recently,
hardly anyone cared about. However, in 2022 there was one piece of news that set off all the alarm
bells. I'm sure you all remember it: N3(Solomon Islands: China deal in
Pacific stokes Australian fears – BBC) Exactly, China finalized its first security
agreement in the region with the Solomon Islands, which does not mean that it will
set up a military base in the country, but it will have certain privileges.
For example, China will be able to send military personnel and armed police to secure its projects
in the country, and it will also have access to local ports so that its fleet can resupply there.
As you can imagine, Australia's biggest fear is that China will eventually get
around to putting a military base there that would be less than 2,000 km, that is,
1,243 miles, from the Australian coast. For the time being, the Prime Minister of the
Solomon Islands has denied this possibility: C1("Let me assure you all again,
there is no military base, nor any other military facility, or institutions in the
agreement. And I think that's a very important point that we continue to reiterate to the
family in the region". – Manasseh Sogavare, Solomon Islands Prime Minister, July 2022)
However, Sogavare's assurances that there will be no Chinese military bases reassure almost no one.
The agreement has been a turning point, a profound change in the South Pacific because, for the first
time since World War Two, Australia is seeing a direct challenge to its regional dominance.
And, let’s keep in mind that China has not stopped with the Solomons.
In 2022, it signed several agreements with Kiribati, [Pron: Ki Ree BAS] which,
believe it or not, has one of the largest exclusive economic zones in the world. Meanwhile
in Fiji they are carrying out projects such as the Wanguo Friendship Plaza,
the tallest tower in the South Pacific.
These are just two examples. We even find that China, in addition to mobilizing a
hospital ship, is also handing out a lot of scholarships for students in the region.
So the question is, what is China after? What does it hope to get in return for all this aid?
Clearly influence. But, keep in mind, we are not only talking about military ties such as
those being developed with the Solomon Islands. We are also talking about a political agenda:
for example, the firm and unwavering support for the Asian giant in spaces such as the United
Nations. You could say that for China it is a relatively cheap way to win a lot of votes.
And, mind you, we are not only talking about cooperation or agreements at government level.
Many Chinese companies such as ZTE or Huawei are also trying to get a foothold in this region.
Of course, wait a minute, because not everyone trusts Beijing.
In some cases Chinese activities on these islands are fueling ethnic and social tensions.
Corruption, intensive fishing by Chinese fishing vessels and fears about loss of
sovereignty are not making everyone happy with this association. Which is precisely
what explains news stories like this: N4(25 November 2021: Solomon Islands
experiences second day of protests with attacks on Chinese businesses – Euronews)
And, of course, China is still far from winning this race. Why? Because Uncle
Sam has woken up. Let’s take a look.
T3(THE RED HOT COMPETITION) Not since the Second World
War has the South Pacific been in such high demand. Following China's landing,
now Australia and the United States have stepped up to the plate.
Now, how do you think they are doing it? Well, basically by
pulling out the checkbook. Take a look. N5(US pledges $210mn to Pacific Islands
to counter China's influence – FT) And not only that. In February 2022,
US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, visited Fiji. It was the first time in
36 years that a secretary of state had traveled here. Uncle Sam has also announced the reopening
of embassies in Tonga and the Solomon Islands, in addition to re-establishing the US Agency
for International Development in Fiji. But by far the biggest rapprochement took
place in Washington, where a summit chaired by President Joe Biden himself was held in the fall
of 2022 and where the US pledged to invest more than $800 million in infrastructure projects.
On the other hand, we should not forget that although China has signed a security agreement
with the Solomon Islands, the United States has free association treaties with three countries
in this region: the Marshall Islands, the Republic of Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia.
Thanks to these agreements, the United States can establish bases and control the access of
third countries to the territorial waters of these three countries. These agreements have
to be renewed between this year and next, but no doubt this will be fairly straightforward.
And then, of course, relatively close behind are the two heavyweights: Guam and American Samoa, two
territories that are already under US sovereignty with a situation similar to that of Puerto Rico.
In Guam, in fact, we can find a very significant military presence. About a quarter of the island
is under US military control. We are talking about a naval base and an air base where more than
6,000 soldiers are deployed and where we can find advanced equipment such as nuclear submarines or
the F22, the crown jewel of the US air force. For its part, Australia, in addition to once again
taking relations with all these small countries seriously, has an important ace up its sleeve:
It is still by far the one that writes the biggest check. Take this chart, for example.
As you can see, China has promised a lot of things,
but when it comes to putting up the dough, Australia is still way ahead.
In other words, one way or another, no matter how much progress China has made, the United States
and Australia still have the upper hand. Be that as it may, this is another of the
many races that China and the United States are waging around the world.
But having come this far, it's your turn: Who do you think will gain the upper hand in
the South Pacific? Have you ever thought that this remote region could be on the
international agenda? Have you ever imagined yourself sailing around these idyllic islands?
Leave us your thoughts in the comments. And you know, if you found this video interesting,
don't forget to like it and subscribe to VisualPolitik
if you haven't already done so. All the best and see you next time.