What's up everyone?
My name is Ajwritescrypto.
And welcome to the Price Prediction Department!
Basically, the Price Prediction Department is a segment in the BitBoy Crypto live stream
where BitBoy calls me on my red phone
and I pick up the phone and we talk about a price prediction for a coin.
Basically, I'm not just, you know, giving out arbitrary numbers.
Like, there is a method to the madness.
There is a method to moon math.
I want to give you a little peek behind the curtain to show you how I get to the numbers I get to
so you can kind of follow along with my reasoning.
The basic equation for the price of a coin is very simple.
The equation is price equals market cap divided by circulating supply.
Therefore, if the circulating supply of a coin is 10 billion,
it would require a $10 billion market cap as the numerator to equal $1 in price.
Notice how I said circulating supply, not max supply.
Circulating supply is how many coins are currently in circulation right now
for whatever crypto you're looking at.
The max supply is how many coins that there will be total in circulation
once a coin finishes its emission schedule.
Doing moon math like this is super difficult sometimes.
First of all, there are coins that already have a fixed supply
and then there's coins that aren't going to reach their max supply in, say, 5 or 10 years.
It's also super difficult because some coins are inflationary and deflationary at the same time.
So say you're looking at a coin that has a supply of 1 million right now
but, in five years, the supply will be 5 million.
That means that the market cap has to go up by 4 million more to have the same price it did
when it was at 1 million, if that makes sense.
What I'm saying here is that you have to dive into the tokenomics
of whatever project you're looking at to estimate what the circulating supply is going to be
by the time we reach our all-time high.
Our next all-time high based off the Bitcoin halving cycle
is projected to be September to November of 2025.
The Bitcoin halving cycle has been spot on since its inception,
and until that breaks narrative, we're going to stick with it.
And, also, formulating a price prediction in crypto is one thing,
but it's another thing in practice, in action, once we get to that point.
In crypto, you always have to be ready to pivot at any given moment.
You have to be quick on your feet based off a lot of other factors.
I've said this before, and I'll say it again.
You really have to separate your long-term trades from your short-term trades.
What I mean by that is you need to write down your trades and your plan for your trades
before you click go, before you click buy.
You need to have a plan and you need to stick to the plan.
So what I'm saying here is that,
if a short-term trade is that you want to get 5% out of the trade,
you're going to exit the trade, boom, boom, that's it.
But with a long-term trade,
I really want you to think about how much you want to go up in price
before you start to take profits.
Having an all in all out mentality normally isn't the best way to go about this.
Sometimes people will message me on Twitter and say,
"Hey, I bought this coin at 10¢. Now, it's at 7¢. Like, should I sell?"
And I say, "Well, you know, you should have wrote down a goal before you went into this trade
and you would already know what to do with that information.
Was it your goal to sell at 7¢?
Or was it your goal to sell at 15, but now you're thinking about taking the money?"
So if you already have a plan before you get into your trade,
that eliminates a lot of the headache.
I know that is past price predictions, but that really matters just in general.
One more thing is that if you're only looking at the chart you're trading,
you're doing it wrong.
There are several other charts you want to consider
other than the chart you're looking at.
That has to do with how much money is there in crypto, like, in general.
For instance, the total chart,
which is all of the cryptos smashed together added up,
at its all-time high, the total chart was $3 trillion.
Right now, the total chart is $1.14 trillion.
You have to take that into consideration
when you're looking at how much money is it possible for there to be in crypto.
The Total2 chart is all of crypto minus Bitcoin.
And the Total3 chart is all of crypto minus Bitcoin and Ethereum.
So if you're looking at all the other altcoins besides Bitcoin and Ethereum,
the Total3 chart really matters to you.
At all-time high, the Total3 chart was worth $1.13 trillion.
And right now the Total3 chart is $370 billion.
So there's only so much to work with right now.
And obviously that will go up over time,
but you also have to have like limitations in your brain on how high things can go.
Trust me, I want to come on here and say every altcoin is going to 50X,
but that's not possible.
Like, mathematically, it's not possible.
And, like, you know, some people, if I do a price prediction on the coin they prefer,
their favorite coin,
and they message me on Twitter like hating me because I didn't say what they wanted to hear,
well, that's just because I'm being really realistic about these price predictions.
I don't want to do crazy unrealistic moon math.
And some of them will be pushing the boundary.
Like, I am going to be more optimistic about certain projects and there's a reason for that.
But I also want to be realistic and give you something that you can really work off of
instead of just telling you what you want to hear.
And that's super important, especially in the accountability section of crypto.
Before I get into today's price prediction,
I also want to talk about a couple other charts that you should be looking at
other than the chart you're trading.
The Bitcoin dominance chart,
as in the percentage of Bitcoin compared to the entire market cap of crypto,
right now, Bitcoin dominance is about 48.5%,
and it's fighting at a double top,
and if it gets rejected from a double top,
that could be good for the altcoins moving forward.
Also, the DXY chart is very important to look at as it indicates the strength of the dollar.
When the strength of the dollar goes up, crypto goes down.
Like, look at 2022 for instance.
And when the strength of the dollar goes down, crypto goes up.
Look at the beginning of 2023 for instance.
And my favorite chart to look at for other indications is the ES1! chart,
which is the E-mini futures stock market chart.
There is some argument between how correlated, you know, crypto and the stock market is,
but it's still worth looking at just for reference
because a lot of times that the stock market falls off the face of the earth,
crypto is going to follow it.
And right now the ES1! recently got rejected from a double top as well.
So that is worth at least looking into when considering trading altcoins.
So there you go.
Those are the overall things that I look at when I'm making a price prediction.
We're not just looking at the supply and the market cap,
but we're also looking at the utility for the coin.
Do people care?
How many people are on Twitter talking about this coin?
How many partnerships do they have?
Are these partnerships in the real world, like outside of the crypto atmosphere?
When you mix that with the overall market sentiment, Bitcoin dominance,
the stock market, the Total3 chart, everything else,
you start to get a well rounded look at the one coin you're looking at.
You can look at 50 other things to tell you a little bit about the one coin you're looking at.
It's super important to zoom out and then zoom in.
Don't zoom in and then zoom out.
That's super important.
The coin I'm looking at today is HBAR, which is ranked 33 by market cap.
As of today, HBAR's market cap is $1.9 billion.
As of right now, its circulating supply is 31.1 billion
with a max supply of 50 billion.
It is projected that HBAR will reach its total supply by 2035.
According to the 15-year release schedule,
HBAR will have around 34.5 billion tokens in supply by the end of 2025.
If you don't already know,
HBAR's token emission schedule is a little bit confusing how they do it,
but something I like to look at for a tool that you could use is tokens.unlocks.
And the next HBAR unlock is going to happen on May 31 this year
for about 1.2 billion HBAR,
about 2.5% of its supply.
HBAR hit its all-time high in September of 2021 at about 57¢.
At the time, its market cap was about $4.6 billion.
So we can determine what HBAR supply was when it was at its all-time high
by doing the same equation backwards.
Its market cap when it hit its all-time high was about $4.6 billion.
If we divide that by 57¢,
we're going to get a little teeny bit over 8 billion tokens
at the time of its all-time high.
Remember, its all-time high was 57¢.
And that's kind of problematic moving forward because it was 57¢ when it had an 8 billion supply.
Now, its supply is 31.1 billion.
So it has a lot more work to do to get back to where it was before.
Am I saying that's impossible for HBAR?
Absolutely not.
HBAR is one of my favorite picks.
There is a lot of really bullish news lately on HBAR and its ecosystem,
its partnership with the Fresh Supply Co., the largest user of MasterCard Provenance,
migrates to Hedera for real world asset tokenization.
That's super bullish.
WiPay launches WiCoin settlement on HBAR to help the bankless people
in Africa and the Caribbean,
which is super bullish.
Zepzi, who is a friend of mine on Twitter, put a tweet out about
how HBAR is in the FIDO Alliance.
Other companies in the FIDO Alliance include, you know, Alibaba Group,
Binance, eBay, Verizon, Sony, Yahoo,
super important that Web3 and HBAR are included in that circle.
Just a couple days ago,
there is a hearing at the House titled The Future of Digital Assets:
Identifying the Regulatory Gaps in Spot Market Regulation.
At that hearing, Rep. Johnson called Ethereum, Filecoin and HBAR all a hit,
which is super bullish considering that politicians are looking at coins with utility
such as Filecoin, such as HBAR,
which is going to be used in the future integration between government and blockchain.
And a lot of people might not want to get behind that,
but at the same time, you have to swim with the whales,
and when institutional investors are looking at a coin,
you know, it's carbon neutral,
it's an enterprise blockchain,
it runs off a distributed ledger technology,
and they're looking at this for their investments.
I'm all for decentralization,
but I'm also for swimming with the whales
and seeing what institutional investors are going to be looking for.
And when you have people in politics looking at certain blockchains
and saying them out loud in hearings,
that's pretty good press.
That's just one of many reasons I'm super big on HBAR.
Another fun partnership they have is with Starburst who is putting their Juicyverse metaverse
which will be built on HBAR as well.
So as you can see,
there's many good awesome new developments happening in the HBAR ecosystem.
I know a few of them personally,
and HBAR is one of those projects you want to keep your eye on moving forward.
But there is still an issue with its price prediction
because, like I said, its 57¢ price prediction was when its supply was 8 billion.
Moving forward,
right now, HBAR is currently only 6¢ with a 31.1 billion supply.
So HBAR has a lot of work to do to get back to that 57¢ range.
In fact, as of now, it would need a $31 billion market cap to be a $1 coin.
And based off the 15-year chart that I showed you before,
HBAR is roughly going to have a 34.5 billion supply by 2025
when the top is projected to be.
So with the increased supply,
HBAR would need about $19.7 billion in its market cap
to get back to that 57¢ range.
From a more bullish narrative,
if HBAR, say, had $100 billion market cap with the increased supply by 2025,
you're looking at about a $2.90 HBAR.
Is it possible for HBAR to get to $100 billion?
I think it's a stretch, but I think it's possible.
That would be the highest end of my price prediction.
Do I think it could do better a little less than $3 over time?
Of course.
I do think it's possible for it to get there, but these things take time,
especially with the caliber of partnerships it has, you know, being used, like, by governments,
and all of that, that takes time.
So this next bull run,
you know, that's a little more than two years away,
what are we looking at for a realistic narrative for HBAR's price?
So the top end would be $100 billion market cap
would spit it out with the increased supply at $2.90.
On the lower end,
if it had a $50 billion market cap,
HBAR would be about $1.45.
This really all comes down to how far HBAR gets integrated
with its partnerships between now and then.
This is something I don't have a crystal ball.
I cannot tell you that.
This is why I give ranges for my price predictions.
I will never come on here and say, "This coin will be at this price at this day,"
because that's not realistic.
But what I am saying is that HBAR's utility is unparalleled.
We're looking at a project here that can handle over 10,000 transactions per second,
its gas fees are so small, they're basically non-existent,
with a 3 to 5-second time of finality.
There's a reason HBAR isn't locked into just one niche.
It can do everything.
It's an enterprise blockchain,
which is why so many high caliber companies are looking at HBAR
when they integrate into crypto.
So, really, the possibilities are endless,
but it's just a matter of how long this is going to take.
As much as I want to come on here and say that HBAR is going to be $10 by 2025,
I just don't think it is possible for the market cap to get that high.
But I do think it's possible
considering what we're looking at here for it to get past its previous all-time high
even though the supply has increased a lot.
So I'm looking at for the top of 2025
HBAR to be between realistically between $1.50 and maybe like $2.80.
That's super, super bullish narrative.
That's pushing $100 billion for the market cap.
Realistically, we're looking at a coin that's 6¢.
If HBAR went to $1.45, that's a 23X.
And I think that's very, very possible for HBAR moving forward.
So there you go.
There's a peek behind the curtain on how I get to the numbers I get to,
all the charts I'm looking at,
the crazy, you know, 21 moon math that goes behind all my price predictions,
and then using that same formula to do a price prediction on HBAR,
which I said, you know, if it went to $100 billion, that would be amazing,
but at the end of the day, shout-out to HBAR,
shout out to all my HBARbarians out there,
shout-out to the Dead Pixels Club.
Super bullish on that NFT.
And moving forward, I'm really looking forward to doing more price predictions.
So let me know in the comments what coin you want to see a price prediction on next.
My name is Ajwritescrypto.
And have yourself a great weekend.