In October 2023, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy
Ahmed Ali sparked fears of a new conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Calling for Ethiopia to have access to the strategically vital Red Sea,
neighbouring Eritrea put its forces on alert,
raising the prospect of a return to war between two countries with a long and bloody history.
But while the immediate threat appears to have subsided,
many worry that a conflict could still be on the horizon.
So, could a new war really be Brewing between Ethiopia and Eritrea?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
Geography is hugely significant in international relations.
This is especially true for the world's 40 or so landlocked states.
Deprived of direct access to the sea, and thus international waters and airspace,
they often feel vulnerable and dependent on their neighbours.
As a result, throughout history, many of these states have seen unfettered
strategic sea access as a vital national interest - sometimes leading to conflict.
This issue recently came to international
attention again as Ethiopia raised the question of maritime access.
In highly publicised comments made in October 2023, the Ethiopian Prime Minister,
Abiy Ahmed Ali, suggested that Ethiopia needed to have direct access to the Red Sea.
This immediately led to fears of a renewed conflict with its neighbour, Eritrea.
But while such fears have been played down, and Ethiopia now insists that
it has no hostile intentions, the history of poor relations between
the two countries has raised concerns that a new conflict may well be brewing between
Ethiopia and Eritrea - two countries with an extremely complicated history.
Ethiopia and Eritrea lie in the Horn of Africa, an area in the northeastern corner of the continent.
At 1.1 million square km or 425,000 square miles,
Ethiopia is the world's 26th largest country and the 10th largest state in Africa.
Landlocked, it neighbours six UN members: Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya,
South Sudan, Sudan and Eritrea, and the internationally unrecognised Somaliland.
In contrast, Eritrea, which lies to Ethiopia's northeast and has a long coastline on the Red Sea,
one of the world's crucial strategic waterways, is just 125,000 Square km or
just under 50,000 Square miles, making it the world's 97th largest country.
As well as Ethiopia, it has land borders with Djibouti and Sudan.
In terms of population sizes, the two countries are vastly different.
At 120 million inhabitants,
Ethiopia is now Africa's second most populous country, after Nigeria.
As for Eritrea's population, it's a mere fraction of its neighbour, standing at around 3.6 million.
The countries also share ethnic links.
Tigrayans, who make up over half the population of Eritrea,
are the third largest group in Ethiopia, at around 7% or 8% of the country's inhabitants.
The two countries share a long and fascinating history that stretches back into antiquity.
This included the Kingdom of Axum,
which incorporates present-day Eritrea as well as northern Ethiopia.
But our story really begins in the 19th century with European colonial expansion into Africa.
Having established a trading outpost in Eritrea in 1869, Italy soon expanded its regional presence.
As well as creating the Colony of Eritrea, it took control of Somaliland.
And despite having resisted European colonisation in the 19th century,
Ethiopia - or Abyssinia as it was then known - also fell under Italian control in 1936.
However, this was shortlived.
In 1941, British forces and Ethiopian guerrillas defeated Italy.
But while Ethiopia regained its previous independence and became
a founding member of the United Nations, Eritrea came under British trusteeship.
At first, it was expected that Eritrea would have the right to
choose its future in line with the principle of self-determination.
However, deep divisions emerged between the country's two religious communities.
On the one hand, the Muslim Eritreans favoured independence.
In contrast, most Christians, who primarily belonged to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church,
preferred union with neighbouring Ethiopia,
which was in turn desperate to gain access to the Red Sea.
Faced with this apparent deadlock,
the UN General Assembly appointed a commission to consider the question.
However, it couldn't agree on a preferred outcome.
Instead, it presented three options.
The first option was merely to allow Ethiopia to annex the territory of Eritrea.
Secondly, a federation could be created between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
And thirdly, Eritrea would remain a trust territory
for another 10 years before gaining independence.
Ultimately, the General Assembly chose the second option.
Just under two years later, on 15 September 1952,
the Federation of Ethiopia and Eritrea was created.
From the start, it was an unhappy union.
Ethiopia, being significantly larger and more populous and with its long
history of independence, immediately saw itself as the senior partner.
As a result, over the next decade resentment steadily grew in Eritrea.
All this came to a head in September 1961 when an armed group, the Eritrean
Liberation Front, or ELF, launched an uprising against Ethiopian rule.
In response, Ethiopia dissolved the Federation and annexed Eritrea.
Despite this, the ELF continued its campaign over the following
decade - a conflict that's now known as the Eritrean war of independence.
However, everything changed on 12 September 1974,
when the Ethopian Emperor, Haile Selassie, was overthrown by a Marxist military coup.
Although the ELF split in the late 1970s, the new Eritrean People's Liberation Front,
the EPLF, which emerged as its replacement, soon allied with other groups fighting the new regime.
The most significant of these being the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front, the TPLF.
This would have profound consequences a decade later.
As the Soviet Union collapsed and the Ethiopian government lost its key benefactor,
the rebel forces gained the upper hand.
At the end of May 1991, the TPLF, the EPLF, and their other assorted allies
took control of Addis Ababa, ousting the Ethiopian military government.
The overthrow of the military regime fundamentally transformed Eritreas fortunes.
Establishing a government in Asmara,
the EPLF announced its intention to hold an independence referendum.
Meanwhile, as representatives of over 20 parties and national
communities met in Addis Ababa to discuss the future of Ethiopia,
they agreed that Eritrea shouldn't be forced to remain a part of the country against its will.
In April 1993, and with UN support, the people of Eritrea went to the polls.
The result was never in doubt.
On a 98% turnout, 99.8% voted for statehood.
Just over a month later, on 28 May 1993,
Eritrea was admitted as the 183rd member of the United Nations.
Although Eritrea's independence now left Ethiopia landlocked, it seemed this wouldn't be a problem.
Relations between the two countries initially appeared to be very good.
However, problems soon emerged.
The most significant of these was centred on their border.
While Eritrea claimed territory along the entire boundary, it was its claim to parts
of the Ethiopian province of Tigray that was particularly contentious.
As the Tigrayans of the TPLF now dominated the new Ethiopian government,
they fiercely rejected Eritrea's demands.
After several years of growing tensions, war finally broke out on May 6, 1998.
The conflict would be marked by extreme brutality that saw as
many as 100,000 killed and huge numbers displaced.
But after two years of fighting, Ethiopia gained the upper hand and
in June 2000 the sides agreed to a UN-monitored ceasefire.
Six months later, they signed a formal peace deal.
As part of this, they agreed to create a boundary Commission in cooperation with
the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague.
In 2002, the Commission produced its findings.
Crucially, it awarded a small Tigrayan village to Eritrea.
This sparked anger in Ethiopia and, as a result, even though the sides
had agreed to be bound by the decision, the Ethiopian government rejected the outcome.
While this didn't lead to a new war, it nevertheless ensured that
tensions remained high between the neighbours, occasionally spilling over into violent clashes.
However, everything changed in April 2018 with the
election of a young reformist prime minister in Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed Ali.
An ethnic Oromo, he began to push back
against the entrenched Tigrayan dominance of Ethiopian politics.
Just two months after taking office, he surprised the world by announcing that
his government had agreed to accept the Border Commission's decision.
This drew widespread praise from the international
community and even saw Abiy Ahmed receive the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.
It also led to an immediate thawing of relations with Eritrea.
Soon afterwards, there was a face-to-face meeting between Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki,
Eritrea's long-standing totalitarian president, a former EPLF Commander.
But, as expected, the decision caused outrage in Tigray,
where the TPLF still dominated local politics.
This would all come to a head in 2020.
While Ethiopia postponed national elections due to the pandemic,
Tigray pushed ahead with its vote, leading to another decisive TPLF win.
With neither side recognising the legitimacy of the other,
tensions rapidly escalated between the TPLF and the Ethiopian central government.
This would lead to conflict in early November 2020 when Abi Ahmed sent the Ethiopian National
Defense Force to retake control of Tigray and force the TPLF from power.
As Ethiopia descended into civil war,
Abiy Ahmed's decision to improve relations with Eritrea now paid off.
Having built a deep hatred of the TPLF, Afwerki quickly offered support to Addis Ababa,
providing sanctuary to any Ethiopian troops fleeing from Tigray into Eritrea.
Meanwhile, the situation deteriorated further when the TPLF launched rocket
attacks on Eritrea following reports that Eritrea
had allowed the Ethiopian to launch attacks on Tigray from its territory.
Within a few months, reports emerged that Eritrea had even sent forces to
assist the Ethiopian Army in its battle in Tigray.
This in turn soon led to claims that Eritrean troops had been involved in atrocities.
Since then, further claims have emerged that have led to accusations that Eritrean
forces committed war crimes, and possibly crimes against humanity.
But despite the joint cooperation between Ethiopia and Eritrea,
it seemed as though Tigrayan forces were staging a comeback.
And at one point the TPLF even seemed poised to repeat their 1991 victory by seizing Addis Ababa.
But the tide soon changed again.
In 2022, and again with support from Eritrean forces,
Ethiopian troops forced the Tigrayans back.
With signs that the Ethiopian Army was on the verge of retaking Mekelle,
the Tigrayan capital, the African Union broker a peace deal.
This saw the TPLF forces surrender and demobilise as Ethiopia reasserted control over the province.
In return, Tigray was promised that it would
regain proper representation in national institutions.
So, what sparked this renew concern about a return to war between Ethiopia and Eritrea?
In truth, it's driven by several factors.
Part of it stems from the recent war.
Although Eritrea allied with the Ethiopian government,
it was notably excluded from the peace talks that ended the conflict.
On top of this, there have been claims that it still has troops in Tigray.
All this has seen relations sour between Asmara and Addis Ababa.
However, the immediate cause for concern was a speech given by Abiy Ahmed on the
15 October in which he said that Ethiopia, which has emerged as one of Africa's fastest
developing economies, should assert its rights to access the Red Sea.
Given that many Ethiopians still regard Eritrea as a historic part of their country, this has
immediately sparked fears that the Ethiopian government was considering an invasion of Eritrea.
As Eritrean forces moved close to the border, Ethiopia responded in kind,
thus prompting concerns that the two countries were on the brink of another conflict.
But despite the fears of many observers, it appeared that this was a false alarm.
Speaking to National Defense Forces just 10 days later,
Abiy Ahmed sought to alleviate any concerns about a new conflict, insisting
that Ethiopia wouldn't pursue its interests by force or attack "its fellow brothers".
However, with the long history of tensions between the two countries,
and Ethiopia's long-standing wish for maritime access, many nevertheless wonder whether,
despite the denials from Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia and Eritrea may in fact be headed towards another war.
I hope you found that useful. If so, here's another video that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching, and see you in the next video.