>>> DAVID PLOUGH SERVED AS CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR BARACK
OBAMA’S 2008 BID FOR THE
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION AND THE
WHITE HOUSE.
WHITE HOUSE. HE LED A CAMPAIGN THAT OVERCAME
HUGE NAME RECOGNITION
DISADVANTAGES BY USING DELEGATE
MATH AND HE’S HERE WITH ME
TONIGHT.
TONIGHT. THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH ME.
>> GOOD TO BE HERE, CHRIS.
>> THERE ARE TWO WAYS TO LOOK AT
THE NOMINATING PROCESS.
A DOMINO EFFECT, 2004 WAS
COMPETITIVE, KERRY WON, IT
ROLLED, EVERYONE KNEW THIS IS
THE PERSON FOR THE NOMINATION.
THE OTHERS ARE THESE LONGER
DRAWN OUT DELEGATE BATTLES.
2008 BEING THE MOST INTENSE OF
THOSE.
THOSE. HOW ARE THE THINKING ABOUT THE
DELEGATE BATTLE IF IN FACT THIS
LOOKS LIKE A LONG ROAD OF
COMPETITION?
COMPETITION? >> NERD OUT A LITTLE BIT.
>> LET’S DO IT.
>> I THINK THAT IS THE QUESTION.
IT’S NOT ABOUT WHICH STATE YOU
WIN OR BIG STATES AS DELEGATES.
2000 AND 2004 WE SAW WITH
GORDON, KERRY, IT ENDED QUICKLY.
OUR RACE WENT TO THE END, CLOSE
DELEGATES, AND ’16 WENT DEEP.
I THINK THAT’S THE QUESTION.
I THINK RIGHT NOW THE ONLY
CANDIDATE THAT I COULD SEE WITH
A PATHWAY TO SEIZE A DELEGATE
LEAD THEY MAY NOT GIVE UP EARLY
IS BERNIE SANDERS BECAUSE HE
WILL BE VIABLE IN MOST
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS ON SUPER
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY. HE’LL BE VIABLE STATEWIDE.
AND SO THE QUESTION IS THE RACE
CHANGES SO MUCH IN THE NEXT 18
DAYS, WE BASICALLY SHOOT OUT OF
SOUTH CAROLINA, SOME OF THE
CANDIDATES THAT WILL BE ON THE
BALLOT TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE
LIVE, SOME WON’T.
YOU HAVE BLOOMBERG LOOMING OUT
THERE.
THERE. THAT REALLY IS -- THIS ALL COMES
DOWN -- THE OTHER THING IS IT’S
BY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> THREE DELEGATES, FIVE
DELEGATES, IF YOU’RE THE ONE
THAT WINS THE CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT YOU GET AN EXTRA
DELEGATE.
DELEGATE. IT SOUNDS LIKE WE’RE TALKING
CRAZY MATH.
CRAZY MATH. THAT’S HOW WE’LL DECIDE OUR
NOMINATION IF IT’S CLOSE.
>> THE VIABILITY QUESTION, SO
FOLKS UNDERSTAND, IF YOU DON’T
GET 15%, YOU GET ZERO DELEGATES.
>> STATE SOME DO IT BY DISTRICT
LIKE TEXAS.
LIKE TEXAS. BASICALLY YOU HAVE TO GET 15% TO
BE ELIGIBLE FOR DELEGATES.
IF YOU’RE THE ONLY ONE ABOVE 15%
YOU GET ALL THE DELEGATES.
>> THE WAY THAT WORKS, IF A
SPLIT FIELD IS BIG ENOUGH AND
YOU HAVE A BUNCH OF PEOPLE
GETTING 14 AND 12 AND 13, THERE
IS SOMEONE WHO HAS 28%, THAT
PERSON -- THERE IS A CONCEIVABLE
WORLD WHERE THAT PERSON SEIZES
THE DELEGATES IN A CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT EVEN IF THEY’RE ONLY
GETTING 28% OF THE RAW VOTE
TOTAL BECAUSE THE OTHER PEOPLE
ARE TAKING THEIR SHARES AND
THEY’RE UNDER THE VIABILITY
THRESHOLD.
THRESHOLD. >> HERE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE THE
CANDIDATES ARE GOING TO PRETTY
MUCH EVERY TOWN, MUCH LESS
COUNTY.
COUNTY. THEY DID THE SAME THING IN IOWA.
PRETTY SOON AS THE CALENDAR GOES
NATIONAL, YOU’RE MAKING YOUR
SCHEDULING DECISIONS, RESOURCE
ALLOCATION DECISIONS, UNLESS
YOU’RE BLOOMBERG, YOU CAN SPEND
WHAT YOU WANT ON A LOCAL LEVEL
IF YOU’RE RUNNING A SMART
CAMPAIGN.
CAMPAIGN. >> SO FASCINATING.
>> IT GETS SUPER -- THOSE ARE
BIG DECISIONS.
BIG DECISIONS. IF YOU’RE ONLY GOING TO BE IN
ALABAMA OR GEORGIA, OKAY, OR
ARIZONA THREE TIMES, YOU’VE GOT
TO MAKE THOSE VISITS COUNT AND
YOU’VE GOT TO MAKE YOUR SPENDING
AND YOUR ALLOCATION OF YOUR
STAFF COUNT.
STAFF COUNT. >> THE ONLY WAY TO BE ABLE TO
EVEN MAKE THOSE DECISIONS IS YOU
HAVE TO HAVE SOME SORT OF
FUNDING BASE THAT CAN KEEP A
NATIONWIDE CAMPAIGN OPERATION
GOING, RIGHT?
GOING, RIGHT? IN THE CASE OF, SAY, ELIZABETH
WARREN OR BERNIE SANDERS, THEY
HAVE A BIG GRASSROOTS
FUND-RAISING.
FUND-RAISING. IN THE CASE OF JOE BIDEN, AI
UCHIDA, THEY’RE RAISING MONEY
FROM LARGE HARD DOLLAR DONORS.
THEN THERE’S MICHAEL BLOOMBERG.
THE BLOOMBERG QUESTION MARK, I
FEEL LIKE THERE’S NO PRECEDENT
FOR T.
FOR T. >> NONE.
>> NONE. >> HE’S DROPPING $350 MILLION.
A BILLION THE WEEK AFTER THAT, A
BILLION THE WEEK AFTER THAT.
NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THAT DOES.
>> WE’VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING
LIKE IT.
LIKE IT. SO THE ONE THING I’D SAY ABOUT
BLOOMBERG, IF YOU BELIEVE
NATIONAL POLLS, HE HAS GONE FROM
0 TO 15, SPENT A LOT OF MONEY TO
GET THERE.
GET THERE. THE PATH FROM 15 TO 30 IS 50
TIMES HARDER THAN 0 TO 15.
>> THAT’S A GREAT POINT.
YOU HAVE THE LOW-HANGING FRUIT,
WHICH IS YOU’RE GETTING IN FRONT
OF PEOPLE’S FACES AND THEIR SORT
OF ATTENTION BECAUSE YOU’RE
BUYING ALL THESE ADS.
BUT REAL, REAL BIG CHUNK OF
SUPPORT, YOU CAN’T JUST RUN ADS
TO GET THAT.
>> I SENSE FOR BLOOMBERG, HE
DOESN’T CONTROL HIS DESTINY, IS
MY VIEW.
MY VIEW. SO FOR HIM TO REALLY GET TO THE
POINT WHERE HE’S A THREAT TO BE
THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE, I THINK
HE NEEDS A JOE BIDEN AND
PROBABLY A PETE BUTTIEGIEG AND
AN AMY KLOBUCHAR TO FADE, SO HE
BECOMES THE STANDARD.
OTHERWISE YOU’RE SPLITTING UP
THAT MORE LEFT CENTER VOTE TWO,
THREE WAYS.
THREE WAYS. WE SAW IT HAPPEN IN ’16.
TRUMP DIDN’T START GETTING OVER
40% OF THE VOTE TILL PRETTY DEEP
IN THE CALENDAR.
THEY HAVE WINNER TAKE ALL.
YOU HAD CRUZ, RUBIO, KASICH, ALL
IN THE RACE AND JEB BUSH DEEP
INTO THE CALENDAR.
>> AND HE THIS WERE ABLE -- THAT
WAS SORT OF THE DIFFERENT
SITUATION BECAUSE THEY HAD
WINNER TAKE ALL.
>> RIGHT.
>> RIGHT. >> ONE OF THE WORRIES ABOUT THIS
SET OF RULES -- IT’S
PROPORTIONATE AND COMPLICATED BY
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT STATE,
YOU CAN END UP IN A SITUATION
WHICH NO ONE GETS ENOUGH TO GET
AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY, THE
OUTRIGHT NUMBER YOU NEED TO GET
TO THE NOMINATION.
>> I’LL SAY TWO THINGS.
LET’S TALK ABOUT CALIFORNIA.
CALIFORNIA, WHO THE HELL KNOWS
WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN IN
CALIFORNIA.
CALIFORNIA. BUT THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE IF
BIDEN IS STILL IN THE RACE AND
COMPETING AND WARREN IS AND
MAYOR PETE AND KLOBUCHAR AND
BLOOMBERG TAKES THE STAGE ON
MARCH 3RD.
MARCH 3RD. WHAT IF ALL FIVE OF THOSE ARE
GETTING 12, 14, 15, GABBARD,
YANG, STEYER GET A FEW.
THAT’S 65% OF THE VOTE.
LET’S SAY BERNIE IS THE ONE
GETTING 30 OR 35.
HE COULD NET OVER 100 DELEGATES
OUT OF CALIFORNIA ALONE.
THE QUESTION IS --
>> THAT IS FASCINATING.
WHAT I’M HEARING FROM YOU FROM A
PURELY SORT OF ANALYTICAL
PERSPECTIVE, THERE IS A UNIVERSE
IN WHICH IF YOU’RE THINKING
ABOUT THE DELEGATE MATH FOR
SANDERS, YOU WANT THAT FIELD TO
STAY PRETTY CROWDED.
>> OH, YEAH.
YOU WANT A LOT OF COMPANY.
AND I THINK THERE’S A SENSE
THAT, OKAY, WE HAVE NEW
HAMPSHIRE TOMORROW NIGHT, THEN
NEVADA THEN SOUTH CAROLINA, THEN
WE GET TO SUPER TUESDAY AND THE
REST OF MARCH.
THE CLOCK IS NOT JUST TICKING.
IT’S ALMOST MIDNIGHT AS IT
RELATES TO DELEGATES UNLESS
BASICALLY BERNIE AND ONE OTHER
CANDIDATE -- THERE IS ONE OTHER
SCENARIO BERNIE AND TWO OTHER
CANDIDATES SPLIT EVERYTHING UP.
IT’S POSSIBILITY WE WON’T HAVE
SOMEBODY TO PLEDGE DELEGATES.
I BELIEVE WHOEVER THE PLURALITY
LEADER, EVEN IF SOMEBODY HAS 50
TO 100, WE’RE REALLY GOING TO
TAKE THE NOMINATION AWAY FROM
THEM IN MILWAUKEE?
I’M NOT SURE THE PARTY RECOVERS
THAT FOR DECADES.
>> I COMPLETELY AGREE WITH THAT.
IF YOU GO INTO THE CONVENTION
WITH A PLURALITY LEAD, THE IDEA
OF THE CONVENTION, SORRY, THANKS
FOR PLAYING.
FOR PLAYING. >> THE PARTY BOSSES HAVE DECIDED
THE PERSON WHO GOT THE MOST