GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. IT IS MID -- IT’S GREAT OF YOU
TO BE HERE.
THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.
IT’S ELECTION NIGHT ACROSS THE
COUNTRY TONIGHT.
COUNTRY TONIGHT. OFF-YEAR ELECTION.
OFF-YEAR ELECTION. SO THAT MEANS THERE’S ELECTIONS
OF VARIOUS SHAPES AND SIZES ALL
OVER THE COUNTRY.
SOME OF THEM ARE GOING TO PROVE
TO BE VERY, VERY CONSEQUENTIAL.
INCLUDING IN THE GREAT STATE OF
VIRGINIA TONIGHT.
VIRGINIA TONIGHT. EVERY SEAT IN THE VIRGINIA
LEGISLATURE WAS ON THE BALLOT
TONIGHT.
TONIGHT. EVERY STATE HOUSE SEAT, EVERY
STATE SENATE SEAT.
DEMOCRATS CONTROLLED THE
STATEWIDE OFFICES ALREADY IN
VIRGINIA, BUT THIS MEANT THAT
CONTROL OF THE LEGISLATURE WAS
ON THE BALLOT AS WELL.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS
NOW CALLED IT FOR THE DEMOCRATS
IN THE STATE LEGISLATURE.
DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED ENOUGH
SEATS TONIGHT TO GAIN CONTROL OF
THE STATE HOUSE AND THE STATE
SENATE IN VIRGINIA.
THAT BIG DOUBLE FLIP TONIGHT
MEANS THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE
CONTROL OF ALL THE STATEWIDE
OFFICES IN THE STATE.
THEY’VE ALSO GOT CONTROL OF THE
STATE LEGISLATURE IN THE STATE.
AND THAT PUTS DEMOCRATS IN
COMPLETE CONTROL OF THE VIRGINIA
STATE GOVERNMENT FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN 26 YEARS.
OF COURSE THE FURTHER BIG NEWS
TONIGHT IS OUT OF KENTUCKY,
WHERE THE DEMOCRATIC STATE
ATTORNEY GENERAL, ANDY BESHEAR,
HAS TURFED OUT REPUBLICAN
INCUMBENT GOVERNOR MATT BEVIN.
NBC NEWS HAS CALLED ANDY BESHEAR
THE APPARENT WINNER IN THIS
KENTUCKY’S GOVERNOR’S RACE,
WHICH WILL FRANKLY SEND
SHOCKWAVES THROUGH NOT JUST
KENTUCKY POLITICS BUT THROUGH
NATIONAL POLITICS FOR A LONG
TIME GIVEN THAT KENTUCKY IS A
STATE THAT DONALD TRUMP WON IN
2016 BY OH, SAY, 30 POINTS.
HERE TO HELP US MAKE SENSE OF
THESE ELECTION RESULTS IS MSNBC
NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
THE INDEFATIGABLE STEVE
KORNACKI.
KORNACKI. >> ALL RIGHT, RACHEL, LET’S
BEGIN IN KENTUCKY.
ANDY BESHEAR, YOU JUST MENTIONED
IT, THE DEMOCRAT TAKING OUT MATT
BEVIN THE INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN.
OBVIOUSLY THE BACKDROP THIS A
BIG TRUMP STATE IN 2016.
HE WON IT BY 30 POINTS.
HE WAS THERE THE OTHER NIGHT
TRYING TO GET MATT BEVIN ACROSS
THE FINISH LINE.
WHY DID BEVIN FALL SHORT?
WHY WAS BESHEAR ABLE TO WIN?
IT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS
TO TALK ABOUT HERE, A COUPLE OF
FACTORS WENT INTO THIS.
NUMBER ONE WAS IN THE DEMOCRATIC
AREAS OF KENTUCKY, THERE ARE NOT
MANY DEMOCRATIC AREAS OF
KENTUCKY BUT IN THE DEMOCRATIC
AREAS THAT DO EXIST THE TURNOUT,
THE SUPPORT LEVEL FOR BESHEAR
WAS THROUGH THE ROOF.
LET ME SHOW YOU WHAT I MEAN.
JEFFERSON COUNTY, LOUISVILLE,
CITY OF LOUISVILLE IS THEIR
BIGGEST COUNTY IN THE STATE BY
FAR.
FAR. LOOK AT THIS.
THE MARGIN FOR VICTORY FOR
BESHEAR OVER BEVIN ALMOST
100,000 VOTE DIFFERENCE HERE.
IN SOME CONTEXT HERE, THE LAST
TIME AROUND WHEN BEVIN GOT
ELECTED IN 2015, THE DEMOCRATIC
MARGIN IN THIS COUNTY WAS JUST
37,000.
37,000. SO IT EXPLODED FROM 37,000 UP TO
100,000.
100,000. YOU SAW A SIMILAR DYNAMIC HERE,
FAYETTE COUNTY.
FAYETTE COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE LEXINGTON IS, THE
UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY.
AGAIN, 36,000 VOTE-PLUS
DIFFERENCE THERE.
DIFFERENCE THERE. BESHEAR BEATING BEVIN BY IT WAS
ONLY 10,000 FOR THE DEMOCRAT IN
THE LAST GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION.
SO THAT HELP FOR DEMOCRATS.
THERE WERE OTHER FACTORS,
THOUGH, AS WELL.
ANOTHER IS WE TALK ABOUT THE
SUBURBS.
SUBURBS. WE TALK ABOUT NATIONALLY,
SUBURBAN AREAS, TRADITIONALLY
REPUBLICAN AREAS THAT HAVE MOVED
TOWARD THE DEMOCRATS, MOVED AWAY
FROM DONALD TRUMP IN THIS ERA.
YOU SAW THAT IN THE SUBURBS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SUBURBS OF CINCINNATI.
CINCINNATI’S JUST OVER THE OHIO
RIVER.
RIVER. OTHER SIZE ON THE OHIO LINE.
BUT THESE THREE COUNTIES IN
PARTICULAR IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY,
BIG SUBURBAN COUNTIES, ABOUT 10%
OF THE STATE POPULATION IN THESE
THREE COUNTIES.
THREE COUNTIES. AND THEY SWUNG PRETTY
DRAMATICALLY.
DRAMATICALLY. LET ME GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE OF
WHAT I MEAN.
BOONE COUNTY.
BOONE COUNTY. YES, MATT BEVIN WON THIS.
HE GOT 56% OF THE VOTE.
WHEN HE GOT ELECTED GOVERNOR
FOUR YEARS AGO, HE GOT 66% OF
THE VOTE IN THIS COUNTY.
THIS IS THE KIND OF COUNTY
REPUBLICANS USUALLY DEPEND ON TO
DRIVE UP THEIR MARGINS.
HE DIDN’T DRIVE IT UP HERE LIKE
HE DID LAST TIME, LIKE HE’S
SUPPOSED TO DO, LIKE A
REPUBLICAN IS SUPPOSED TO DO.
KENTON COUNTY NEXT DOOR, MATT
BEVIN WON THIS EASILY IN 2016.
LOOK, HE LOST IT.
HE GOT 57% OF THE VOTE LAST TIME
AROUND.
AROUND. TONIGHT HE LOST IT OUTTRITE
BESHEAR.
BESHEAR. SAME THING IN CAMPBELL COUNTY.
BEVIN WON THIS THING BY 10
POINTS LAST TIME AROUND.
TONIGHT HE LOSES IT BY 6.
SO POPULATION-DENSE SUBURBS IN
NORTHERN KENTUCKY REALLY
DRAMATICALLY MOVING AWAY FROM
BEVIN AND TOWARD BESHEAR.
THAT’S THE SECOND PART OF THE
FORMULA FOR BESHEAR.
EVEN THAT, THOUGH, THOSE TWO
THINGS ALONE OR THOSE TWO THINGS
TOGETHER WOULDN’T HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH.
ENOUGH. THE THIRD INGREDIENT THAT GOT
BESHEAR ACROSS THE FINISH LINE
HERE IN KENTUCKY, RURAL EASTERN
KENTUCKY.
KENTUCKY. THIS IS A PART OF THE STATE THAT
REALLY YOU TALK ABOUT KENTUCKY
DECADES AGO WAS A DEMOCRATIC
STATE.
STATE. STILL A LOT OF DEMOCRATS THERE
IN KENTUCKY.
IN KENTUCKY. THEY’RE CULTURALLY CONSERVATIVE,
AND THEY TEND TO VOTE REPUBLICAN
OVERWHELMINGLY REPUBLICAN IN
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THIS PART OF THE STATE, RURAL
EASTERN KENTUCKY.
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOOK AT THIS.
A COUNTY LIKE BATH COUNTY.
A SMALL COUNTY BUT BESHEAR WINS
THIS BY SIX POINTS.
LOOK AT THAT.
TRUMP WON IT BY 37.
IT WAS TRUMP BY 37 POINTS.
TONIGHT DEMOCRATS WIN IT BY SIX
POINTS.
POINTS. THAT’S A SWING OF MORE THAN 40
POINTS.
POINTS. WHEN YOU HAVE SWINGS LIKE, THAT
A LOT OF THESE BLUE COUNTIES IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY IT’S A VERY
SIMILAR STORY.
SIMILAR STORY. THAT’S THE THIRD INGREDIENT FOR
BESHEAR.
BESHEAR. RURAL PARTS OF THE STATE THAT
ARE ANCESTRALLY DEMOCRATIC.
THE FOLKS THAT WERE THERE, THEIR
PARENTS ALL KIND OF DEMOCRATS.
THEY INHERDT THE DEMOCRATIC
REGISTRATION.
REGISTRATION. THEY KEPT IT.
THEY VOTE REPUBLICAN IN NATIONAL
LEVELS.
LEVELS. THEY WENT WITH BESHEAR TONIGHT.
THAT WAS AN ESSENTIAL INGREDIENT
FOR HIM.
FOR HIM. THOSE ARE THE THREE SORT OF
THINGS THAT WENT INTO THAT.
ALSO WE’LL GET TO THE OTHER
GOVERNOR’S RACE TONIGHT.
THERE WAS A SECOND GOVERNOR’S
RACE IN MISSISSIPPI.
TATE REEVES, THE REPUBLICAN,
WE’RE DECLARING HIM THE APPARENT
WINNER HERE.
WINNER HERE. THE REASON FOR THE HESITATION,
BECAUSE HIS MARGIN IS STRONG
THERE.
THERE. THE REASON FOR THE HESITATION IS
MISSISSIPPI HAS AN UNUSUAL
PROCEDURE.
PROCEDURE. YOU HAVE TO WIN A MAJORITY OF
THE POPULAR VOTE.
YOU ALSO HAVE TO WIN A MAJORITY
OF THE STATE LEGISLATIVE
DISTRICTS.
DISTRICTS. THERE ARE 122 OF THEM IN
MISSISSIPPI.
MISSISSIPPI. AND FRANKLY WE WON’T HAVE THE
FINAL COUNT ON THAT PROBABLY
TILL TOMORROW.
TILL TOMORROW. WE THINK JUST BASED ON THE VOTE
RETURN PATTERN THAT HE’S
PROBABLY GOT SOMEWHERE IN THE
70s, WELL INTO THE 70s.
HE’LL EASILY HIT THAT NUMBER.
WE THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN.
BUT WE WANT TO SEE THAT HAPPEN
BEFORE WE OFFICIALLY
CHARACTERIZE HIM AS THE WINNER.
BUT CERTAINLY YOU JUST LOOK AT
THE VOTE TOTALS THERE, TATE
REEVES, CERTAINLY WHEN IT COMES
TO THE POPULAR VOTE THE
COMFORTABLE WINNER THERE.
AND FINALLY, THE FINAL STORY,
AND RACHEL, YOU MENTIONED THIS
AS WELL.
AS WELL. THE STATE OF VIRGINIA.
THE COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA.
THE HOUSE OF DELEGATES.
REPUBLICANS CAME INTO THE NIGHT
WITH A NARROW ADVANTAGE 37 ONE
VACANCY THAT WAS A DEMOCRATIC
SEAT.
SEAT. REALLY 50 -- 49.
REALLY IT WAS 51-49 COMING INTO
TONIGHT.
TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS SAYS
DEMOCRATS HAVE PICKED UP FIVE.
A NET GAVEN FIVE.
THE A.P. SAYS FOR DEMOCRATS ON
THE HOUSE DELEGATE SIDE, THAT IS
ENOUGH TO GET THE DELEGATES INTO
CONTROL THERE ON THE STATE
SENATE SIDE.
SENATE SIDE. AGAIN THERE, WAS A VACANCY.
SO IT CAME INTO TONIGHT 21-19
ESSENTIALLY.
ESSENTIALLY. REPUBLICAN VACANCY.
REPUBLICAN VACANCY. IT WAS 21-19 ESSENTIALLY AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRESS SAYS THE
DEMOCRATS HAVE PICKED UP TWO
SEATS THERE.
SEATS THERE. NET GAIN OF TWO.
THEY NEEDED ONE BECAUSE A 20-20
TIE THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
BREAK WITH A LIEUTENANT
GOVERNOR’S VOTE.
GOVERNOR’S VOTE. THE DEMOCRATS GET THE HOUSE OF
DELEGATES.
DELEGATES. THE DEMOCRATS ALSO ALREADY HAVE
THE GOVERNOR IN VIRGINIA.
THEY HAVE THE LIEUTENANT
GOVERNOR.
GOVERNOR. THEY HAVE THE ATTORNEY GENERAL.
DEMOCRATS HAVE COMPLETE CONTROL
OF VIRGINIA STATE GOVERNMENT.
IT’S JUST AGAIN TO PUT THAT IN
SOME PERSPECTIVE THE
TRANSFORMATION POLITICALLY, THE
STATE OF VIRGINIA, THESE ARE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS
THIS VIRGINIA GOING BACK TO
1968.
1968. BASICALLY GOING BACK A HALF
CENTURY HERE.
CENTURY HERE. LOOK AT THIS.
THESE ARE REPUBLICAN MARGINS
HERE.
HERE. RIGHT?
RIGHT? DOWN THROUGH THE YEARS.
WE USE THE TO CALL THIS A SAFE
REPUBLICAN STATE.
REPUBLICAN STATE. WE DIDN’T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT IN
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. IT STARTED TO CHANGE -- BARACK
OBAMA, SOMEWHERE BETWEEN GEORGE
W. BUSH AND BARACK OBAMA IN
2008.
2008. REMEMBER THAT BARACK OBAMA
CARRIED THE STATE.
OF COURSE HE WON VERY
COMFORTABLY NATIONALLY.
COMFORTABLY NATIONALLY. SO THAT WAS RIGHT IN LINE WITH
KIND OF THE NATIONAL NUMBER.
2012 BARACK OBAMA GOT
RE-ELECTED.
RE-ELECTED. 2016 HILLARY CLINTON CARRIED IT
BY SIX POINTS.
BETTER THAN HER NATIONAL NUMBER.
IF YOU THINK AHEAD TO 2020 IN
VIRGINIA REMEMBER WE WERE
TALKING THIS WEEK ABOUT ALL
THOSE SWING STATE POLLS, ALL
THOSE COMBAT’LLGROUND STATE
POLLS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION, PENNSYLVANIA,
ELECTION, PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN, ARIZONA, MICHIGAN.
VIRGINIA WASN’T ON THAT LIST.
WASN’T THAT LONG AGO VIRGINIA
WOULD HAVE BEEN THE FIRST STATE
ON THAT LIST WHEN IT CAME TO
SWING STATES.
SWING STATES. WE’RE NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT
VIRGINIA AS MUCH OF A SWING
STATE ANYMORE.
STATE ANYMORE. IT USED TO BE A RED STATE.
BECAME A SWING STATE.
AND I THINK NOW BETWEEN THAT
2016 RESULT AND WHAT YOU SEE
HERE COMPLETE CONTROL OF THE
STATE GOVERNMENT IN VIRGINIA.
THIS IS A BLUE STATE NOW.
WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THAT
EVOLUTION FOR A WHILE.
THIS MIGHT BE NIGHT THAT REALLY
KIND OF BECOMES OFFICIAL.
BIG PICTURE HERE.
LOOK, DEMOCRATS ARE THRILLED AT
WHAT THEY GET OUT OF KENTUCKY.
A NARROW WIN.
BUT THEY WON THE GOVERNOR’S RACE
IN KENTUCKY.
IN KENTUCKY. REPUBLICANS WILL SAY HEY, YES.
BUT WE WON SILENTLY IN
MISSISSIPPI.
MISSISSIPPI. AND DEMOCRATS WILL COME BACK AND
SAY OKAY, HOW ABOUT VIRGINIA,
HOW ABOUT THAT STATE THAT USED
TO BE A REPUBLICAN STATE, NOW
AGAIN COMPLETING THAT
TRANSFORMATION PRETTY MUCH INTO
A BLUE STATE?
LOOK, THERE’S SOMETHING FOR
EVERYBODY TO SORT OF BRAG ABOUT
TONIGHT BUT I THINK CERTAINLY
THE HEADLINE TONIGHT IS THAT THE
INCUMBENT GOVERNOR, YOU DID SEE
A GOVERNOR GO DOWN IN THE STATE
OF KENTUCKY AND AGAIN, IT WAS
RIGHT AFTER THE PRESIDENT’S
VISIT.
VISIT. CERTAINLY ALL EYES WERE ON THAT.
BUT A VERY FASCINATING ELECTION
NIGHT.
NIGHT. WISH WE DID THESE MORE OFTEN.