Chelsea had a Champions League final place snatched from under their noses by Andres
Iniesta’s 93rd minute strike in 2009, which sent the Catalan team through on away goals.
The London side gained a measure of revenge when they saw off Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate
in 2012.
Indeed, in the last three knock-out round meetings between the two sides, the winner
has gone on to claim the Champions League trophy.
So far this season, Barcelona coach Ernesto Valverde has favoured a 4-4-2 – in Europe,
he has also used a 4-3-3 but given the success of the 4-4-2, it seems likely that Barcelona
will line up in this way.
The 4-4-2 is flexible, with Sergio Busquets dropping in to form a screen to the centre
backs so the full backs can push forwards while, in the absence of genuine wingers,
wide midfielders such as Andres Iniesta and Ivan Rakitic move inside.
This allows a shuttling midfielder, usually Paulinho, to get forwards in support of strikers
Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez, the latter of whom is a focal point who stays pretty high
up the pitch, while Messi drops in between the lines and looks to dribble at the opposition
back line at pace.
Barcelona should press Chelsea aggressively and Suarez will have a key role in setting
not just the tempo of this, but by looking to work through the centre to press Chelsea’s
centre backs and ensure that the ball can only go into one, guarded area of the pitch.
Andreas Christensen and Cesar Azpilcueta are especially comfortable on the ball, and Suarez,
and Barcelona, will look to channel their passing away from the vertical and into tight
areas where the Catalans can hem Chelsea in.
Chelsea have been playing a variation of last season’s successful 3-4-3 with Marcos Alsono
and Victor Moses still supplying width from wing back, but with a narrower front three,
or even Eden Hazard playing off Alvaro Morata in more of a 3-5-2.
In the flatter formation, Cesc Fabregas provides some support for Hazard from deep, creating
defence-splitting passes for the Belgian to run onto.
Hazard has also benefitted from Morata’s physicality, the striker able to create knock
downs or drag defenders away from areas that Hazard can exploit.
Chelsea’s midfield pairing of N’Golo Kante and Danny Drinkwater are constantly on the
move, offering passing options to their more creative counterparts so that Chelsea can
manoeuvre Hazard or the wide players into space.
They also provide a valuable screening function for the back three, and can be supplemented
by the elegant young Danish centre back Christensen, who is well able to carry the ball out of
defence, almost in the style of an old-school libero.
Both these sides are capable of winning the tie.
Barcelona will look to use the wily passing of Andreas Iniesta from a tucked in, inside
left position, and Chelsea must be alive to the overlapping runs of Jordi Alba while not
allowing Iniesta’s positioning to distort Chelsea’s defensive shape.
The centre backs will also have to watch the runs from deep of Paulinho, who provides an
aerial threat and powers into the box when the full backs overlap and find space.
This means Barcelona can have a striker and two runners from deep, Messi and Paulinho,
moving into positions late rather than fairly static, and Chelsea’s three centre backs
will need help from the midfield to counter this.
Chelsea also have to stop Messi without, again, disrupting their own shape too much.
Should they play a 3-5-2, one of the central midfielders could go man-for-man on Messi,
but that would leave a lot of work for Hazard and Morata up front as Chelsea would still
need to win the midfield battle two on two, stripping the Chelsea advanced players of
support.
Chelsea’s best chance is to counter quickly and vertically, bypassing Barcelona’s press
and creating at least parity of numbers by attacking with the wing backs, Hazard, and
Morata, bearing down on Barcelona’s back four, while forward runs from Drinkwater or
Kante keep Sergio Busquets occupied.
If Chelsea can attack while Barcelona’s full backs are high, so much the better – as
Barca’s width comes from these players, they will be in Chelsea’s half often and
should the English side find space behind them for Alonso or Moses, then this will drag
Barca’s centre backs wide and leave space for Hazard.
Two excellent teams, with a strong tactical identity and superb individual talents, make
this an intriguing match-up.
Whether the victor will go on to win the Champions League remains to be seen, but recent history
suggests you wouldn’t bet against it.