Ron De Santis has officially announced
his highly anticipated candidac.
So where does the 2024
presidential race stand?
As more candidates from both
parties make their bid and votes
start to align themselves?
It's never too early to take a .
So here to paint a picture withs
after the latest Quinnipiac natl
poll is Professor Scott McLean.
Scott, thanks so much for being here.
It's great to be here, Anna.
So we saw quite the spectacle ts
week on Twitter Spaces as Ron
De Santis announced his heavily
anticipated campaign for the 2024 race.
Clearly the race is shaping
up in the GOP at least,
but the Quinnipiac poll release
numbers which look like Despite that,
it's still a 2 horse race in
the eyes of voters right now.
Do you think this will change
now that we've seen De Santis
officially enter the field?
I I think once someone is officially in
the field, it does change the situation.
You know, the gloves come off,
the campaign begins.
It's no longer exploratory.
It can become much more you kno,
attacking and finding weak points and
each campaigns platform and and issues.
I think there's a lot that could
happen between now and when this
really start heating up around,
you know, after November,
sometime in this fall there there are,
you know, every day there's
there's a new surprise in the n.
You know, we have the Trump indictments,
but we also have the the Santa
situation sort of taking on Disy
Corporation over some issues in Florida.
Disney is not just rolling overd
taking it, they are responding.
So it's a very dynamic situation and we
we still have the debt ceiling debate,
what will happen there,
you know will will we default on the debt.
So, so many things could happen.
It's really not much purpose in
and looking at the polls right
now to determine what's going to
happen six months from now.
Gotcha. Definitely fluid.
A lot of different factors in this situation,
but there is a lot of talk about who's
a stronger candidate to go up against
President Biden's reelection bid. Someday.
Some say De Santis might have a better shot.
He's currently governor and including
Quinnipiac's poll right now.
I know you said it's still
a little bit too early,
but with how De Santis set
the tone this past week,
what we've seen as the campaign's take off.
I know it's really early to jud,
but do you have any inclination
on who you think might might tae
a Republican primary spot or who
might be the front runner? I
think Trump is the front runner.
Of course Trump is.
And De Santis really had kind oa
stumbling opening announcement on Twitter.
It was supposed to show that De Santis
is more with it and more technological.
He got Elon Musk to be a part o.
It didn't didn't really reflect
well on Musk or De Santis.
There was that.
There was a hot mic situation,
dead air, a very sort of flat.
Presentation by De Santis
because he was on the phone and
not really talking to people.
You know, traditional traditionl
launch of campaigns is in front
of a large mass of followers
and an exciting rousing speech.
Just De Santis took a very he he was tough.
He was he he he attacked the
woke left and and all the things
that he he has sort of staked
out as his territory but it was.
It was a little flat and and it
didn't work out the way he plan.
But look, Emma,
the way this is likely to come
down is a big question.
Once De Santis and Trump
really begin to compete,
and they're competing with
collections of pretty much the e
voters in the Republican Party,
that will be a big question
mark because will if,
let's say if Trump wins.
Will DeSantis supporters support Trump,
or will they go for someone els?
If DeSantis wins,
will Trump supporters vote for DeSantis?
There's no way of knowing this.
The polls right now show that te
two factions of the Republican
Party are fairly interchangeable
and that there there are some
people who will support DeSanti.
DeSantis does just as well against Biden
as Trump right now in the Quinnipiac poll.
But all that could change.
Lots of, lots of,
you know,
dynamics of the race will will,
you know,
maybe mean that those voters
won't necessarily support the
other side of the faction.
Right. We could see maybe some splitting
of votes and Republican voters there.
But on the other side of the co,
you mentioned and we saw those numbers
that both De Santis and Trump going up
and doing equally as well against Biden.
So in your opinion,
is Biden really the Democratic shoo in
that he's being treated as with who's
entered the race so far right n,
which is not very many people?
Well, well, there are.
There are already some what whae
might call sort of outsider Democrats
who are running against Biden right now.
We have Kennedy and Marianne
Williamson both out there campaigning.
They're more symbolic campaignsn
than really serious contenders.
They're not the people that one might have
expected to be serious challengers for Biden.
So, you know, but there they ar.
There in case Biden stumbles or
something bad happens to, you k,
tarnishes his appeal to voters.
But I I look to a lot of other signs.
If you look at the debt ceilinge
in the House of Representatives,
for example, every single Democ.
Voted to deal with the debt cei.
Really, really strengthening Biden's hands.
In those negotiations that are g
on with the Republicans in the House,
you're not really seeing major
moves by people like Joe Manchi,
who who have floated the idea of running
as a third party or an independt
candidacy that that's that's in the wind.
But, you know,
we haven't seen serious steps that way.
And you see good support for Bin
among Democrats in in these early polls.
They do really question his age
and and and wonder if he is reay
strong enough and capable enougo
go another four years as presid.
But as long as nobody else is running,
it really does give Biden an ine
lane for getting the nomination.
And, you know, in some ways.
The Republican race is is far me
interesting as it usually is wih
the out party,
the out of power party in a
presidential election year,
right. So we've been talking abt
these political polls and obvioy
Quinnipiac has a nationally
renowned polling institute.
But there's always a lot of questions
as to why they matter and if
they're really all that accurat.
And when we're looking ahead to 2024,
we're looking at these polls.
Are they really the best tool that we have?
Well, I think, I mean and it depends on,
you know, there's a lot in
your question there, Emma,
because at this at this early se
polling organizations really tro
find a baseline where a candidas
initial support and strength rey
is what what are the favorabiliy
numbers for for both candidates.
And then and then we start watching as
the election and the campaigns progress.
To to look for any changes.
Every poll is just a snapshot in in time.
They don't predict the outcome of anything.
But when you put a snapshot and a snapshot
in a snapshot over time you you do see
movements just like you might w,
you know, a film or something,
but that are also just a
series of still snapshots.
But we try to find out where
the trends are going.
At at this stage,
I mean the one thing that votern
pay attention to and that what y
attention to is the favorability numbers.
Both Biden and Trump and DeSants
have very high unfavorable numbs
that people are just not excited
about the prospect of voting
for these candidates and was.
So one thing to look for
is do those numbers change,
especially among independent vo?
Who who really are going to hole
balance of of the election in tr
hands as we get closer to Election Day.
So watch.
Watch what they begin to do
where the splits are there.
I think that's really important right
now they're they're they also are split
between Biden Trump and and and DeSantis.
And they're watching what
will happen in the news.
And as they begin to pay more
attention to the election comin,
that will change.
One last thing I know I've never
said a lot there, but 1111,
last thing to pay attention to is that
these early polls are basically just.
Registered voters,
but not all registered voters, will vote.
So as we get closer and closer
to the election,
you'll notice that the polls ben
to look at likely voters, people who,
you know, pay more attention,
who say they're going to vote,
who have voted in the past,
and those kinds of of numbers will change.
The outlook of the race in the polls.
So those are important things
to pay attention to for,
you know,
the average person seeing these
numbers in the media.
Yeah, absolutely. And as you sa,
watching how polls change and obviously
we still have a lot of time to do that.
Is it still a while before the 2024 election,
but some local elections
before that comes as well.
But you know, it does,
it does sneak up on us quickly.
And here in Connecticut,
both the Democratic and Republican parties
are making a bipartisan push to move up the.
Primary date and time for
the presidential primary.
They say it's important for engagement.
I could mean more money for the
state when it comes to campaign.
So in in your opinion,
how important is the primary schedule and
and where it falls for different states,
it's tremendously important.
It may not be important in 2024 because.
As we've just been saying him,
you know it looks like Trump is likely to
get the nomination for the Republicans
unless something weird happens h
it could and and the same for B.
So you know on one level you knw
when Connecticut has the primary
not make a great deal of differe
in selecting the delegates to te
convention that formally nominas
the nominee of each party.
But as as far as.
Media attention as far as future
elections when when it may very,
very much matter and also Connecticut
if we do have this in April it,
it will mean that we will be
in that sort of critical March,
April time when things really
will get competitive and we reay
will see the outcome and and
certainly Connecticut will not.
Make the difference and Who Will
Win the nomination all by itsel.
But we will be in a band of states that
will be highly important in in in that
next phase of the nomination prs
which happens sometime in March and April.
So it's it's prime time for Connecticut.
It's a prime time for
voters to pay attention.
And and very important that we ,
we are finally moving our
primary closer to January,
February and not in April or May
as it has been in other years.
Yeah,
well, definitely a lot to watch
here as we look ahead to 2024,
Scott, That does it for us.
But thank you so much again for being here.
Great talking to you, Emma. Take care.