THANK YOU, CAL AND PLEASE STAY
SAFE.
>>> MALCOLM AND CATTY ARE BACK
WITH ME.
AND WANT TO TURN WHERE THE BAD
INFORMATION ABOUT THE RUSSIAN
INVASION AT THIS JUNCTURE, WHERE
IT GOES, IF IT MATTERS AT ALL
INSIDE OF RUSSIA.
MALCOLM, WE JUST SPOKE TO ANDRE
COREIS AND WE SAW THE FOOTAGE OF
LAVROV, HE WAS ONCE DEPUTY TO
THIS INDIVIDUAL AND I'M ABOUT TO
PLAY SOME OF WHAT HE TOLD ME
LAST NIGHT WHICH WAS PRETTY
STRIKING BECAUSE I'M JUST A
JOURNALIST
JOURNALIST ASKING THE GENERAL
QUESTIONS.
WE HAVE ALL OF THE EXPERTS, LIKE
YOU AND CATTY WHO STUDY THE
FOREIGN POLICY, SO I ASKED THE
BASIC QUESTIONS IF THIS IS GOING
TO POORLY, THE DEATH TOLL FOR
RUSSIAN SOLDIERS AS CATTY JUST
MENTIONED A MOMENT AGO, QUITE
HIGH BE ANY GLOBAL SCALE, HOW
DOES THAT EFFECT PUTIN AND HE
BASICALLY SAID THE WAY IT WORKS,
HE CALLED IT, RUSSIAN TRADITION
BUT HE SAID SOMETHING RATHER
STRIKING, THE WAY IT WORKS, THEY
SOONER SHOW A RUSSIAN LEADER TO
THEIR GRAVE THAN GIVE THEM BAD
NEWS THAT MIGHT ENDANGER THE
AIDS THEMSELVES.
HERE IS HOW HE PUT IT.
>> IS THERE ANYONE INSIDE OF THE
RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT WHO COULD
EVEN GIVE HIM THE BAD NEWS?
>> IT IS LESS POSSIBLE THAN OVERTHROWING HIM.
OVERTHROWING HIM.
THAT IS A RUSSIAN TRADITION.
THEY -- THEY FEAR TO TELL THE
BOSS THE TRUTH, BUT ONE DAY THEY
MIGHT COME WITH A WEAPON AND
ESCORT HIM EITHER TO A GRAVE OR
TO A RETIREMENT.
>> THEY WON'T SHARE THE BAD NEWS
BECAUSE IT COULD ENDANGER
THEMSELVES BUT AS HE PUT IT,
THEY MAY COME WITH A WEAPON, AND
SHOW HIM TO THE GRAVE OR EARLY
RETIREMENT.
SERIOUS STUFF.
YOUR REACTION AS AN INTELLIGENCE
ANALYST OF THAT KREMLIN INSIDERS
VIEW.
>> I SAW THAT.
I THOUGHT IT WAS FASCINATING.
LET ME TELL YOU SOMETHING, THIS
IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO END WELL.
AND THAT MAY MEAN THAT SOMEBODY,
ESPECIALLY IF VLADIMIR PUTIN
REPORTS TO CHEMICAL WEAPONS, IN
CENTRAL EUROPE, EVEN IF IT IS A
FALSE-FLAG OPERATION, THE WAY
THEY DOES IN SYRIA, YOU'RE GOING
TO SEE SOMEONE MOTIVATED TO
TERMINATE HIS COMMAND.
THAT IS JUST NOT GOING TO TAND,
THAT IS THE SORT OF THING THAT
WILL LEAD NATO IN WAR WITH
RUSSIA.
AND TO BE QUITE HONEST, THEY
HAVE 75% OF THE ARMY IS AROUND
UKRAINE.
SO IT IS NOT LIKE THEY'RE WELL
PROTECTED.
I DON'T KNOW WHAT VLADIMIR PUTIN
IS THINKING.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND HIS CALCULUS,
BECAUSE HIS CALCULUS IS RUSSIAN,
AS IN APPLE BALM HAS WARNED US,
WE SHOULD NOT THINK THROUGH THE
LENS OF THE WEST THAT IT WOULD
NOT BE UNTHINKABLE FOR HIM TO
LAUNCH CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN
EUROPE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
WORLD WAR I.
THAT BEING SAID, THE RUSSIAN
PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO RESOLVE THIS
ISSUE BECAUSE I'M ONE OF THE FEW
ANALYSTS THAT BELIEVES THAT I
THINK THE UKRAINIANS ARE DOING
BETTER THAN MOST PEOPLE THINK.
THE PENTAGON SAID SEVEN DAYS,
TWO DAYS FOR THE TAKING OF KYIV.
I SAID MONTHS, NOW WE'RE GOING
INTO MONTHS.
>> CATTY, SAME LINE OF
QUESTIONING TO YOU, EVERYONE IS
FAMILIAR THAT PUTIN HAS A KGB
BACKGROUND AND HE WAGES
INFORMATION WAR, THAT HE'S NOT
TO BE UNDERESTIMATED, BUT THAT
KREMLIN'S INSIDE VIEW WAS AS THE
POPG PILES UP AND PUTIN HAS
ISOLATED HIMSELF WHEN WE SEE THE
PHOTOS OF LONG TABLE MEETINGS,
BUT ALSO WITH HIS INNER CIRCLE
OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS, HE MAY
REALLY NOT KNOW THINGS.
HE MAY BE GENUINELY SURPRISED IT
IS TAKING THIS LONG.
HE MAY BE IN HIS OWN WAY UPSET
THAT THINGS ARE NOT GOING
ACCORDING TO PLAN.
IT IS CLEAR THE TIMELINE IS
DIFFERENT THAN THEY WANTED.
YOU'RE ANALYSIS?
>> IT WAS REALLY INTERESTING
LISTENING TO BILL BURN THE
DIRECTOR OF THE CIA SPEAKING AT
THE SENATE INTELLIGENCE
COMMITTEE ON EXACTLY YOUR POINT,
ARI.
THAT PUTIN IS MONEYSOMEBODY WHO
TOLERATE LOSING, AND SEES LOSING
OR BACKING DOWN OR ADMITTING HE
IS WRONG AS A HUGE SIGN OF
WEAKNESS AND HIS DEPRESSING
CONCLUSION IN THE COMMITTEE
HEARING TODAY WAS THAT ALL OF
THESE TALKS, THE ONES WE SAW IN
TURKEY AND IN BELARUS ARE REALLY
JUST FOR TACTICAL REASONS.
HE DOESN'T ACTUALLY FEEL
COMMITTED TO THOSE TALKS AND
HE'S JUST DOING THEM BECAUSE HE
DOESN'T SEE AN END GAME.
THERE IS NO CLEAR OFF-RAMP FOR
HIM.
THERE IS NO CLEAR VICTORY FOR
HIM ANY MORE.
AND HE'S JUST SPINNING THIS OUT
WITH THESE, YOU KNOW, PROSPECT
OF HUMANITARIAN CORRIDORS WHICH
THEN GET BROKEN AND THAT MAKES
SOMEBODY INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS.
SOMEBODY WHO DOESN'T SEE WHAT
THE END OF THIS IS, SOMEBODY WHO
DOESN'T SEE A WAY OUT OF THIS,
WHO FEELS CORNERED AND IT IS
WEAK TO BACK DOWN, EVERY SINGLE
ATROCITY THAT IS COMMITTED IN
UKRAINE IS ANOTHER OFF-RAMP THAT
PRESIDENT PUTIN HAS CHOSEN NOT
TO TAKE.
AND THAT LEAVES EVERYBODY, AND
IF THERE ARE, GOD FORBID,
CHEMICAL COMPANIES IN EUROPE OR
WORSE IN EUROPE, THAT LEAVES
EVERYBODY IN AN INCREDIBLY