it's sis
the phone
it is
always a pleasure to welcome this gets back uh... to the program
um...
and but also with a certain amount of of sadness uh...
i mean i i do
this is this is not and uh... this is not goodbye it's just see you later
maybe but um...
david jaan from uh... firedoglake news
uh... david about uh... we could go maybe two weeks ago now you know state
you were
you're done blogging on december twenty first
uh... i i did not recognize at the time
help closely battle i'm with the end of the mayan calendar
specific button um... i uh... i did was not done
in the expectation that they will be no new
after the apocalypse
ranks
right there you go uh...
well i i i want to talk about those reasons why but uh... and and
let me you know let me practice
uh...
the other question i have by for saying that you know i've been
a huge fan of yours
for at least just off the top my head maybe six or seven years
uh... when you were writing uh... well i think i first came accross your writing
at uh... did bs blog uh... maybe before then
uh... my think uh... when you had d_-day dot blog spot dot com up uh... miller
and i uh... it was pulling your feed for the air america website
you've always been uh... a mall
one of the guys that i've really had a disdain incredibly impressed with
uh... in terms of your writing the clarity the work that you did uh... your
intelligence eccentric satara
um... and i want to get that the way before i ask you uh... mp a question
that's completely unrelated to decisions deficit so i do appreciate that and i i
i appreciate being he outpouring
uh... support that out
uh... gotten home
people
not just in my comments amount where that email all end up
uh... virtually all over the place our people have uh... have expressed their
credit uh... and
and always
spa with adding you know tell me where to find you know
and and uh... both it's really like the period they're probably within that in
the blogging w don't uh... even have but then that
anyone paying attention to the stuff
uh... so was it was nice
that uh... get that recognition from
from the people who read you everything
well you nine minutes is easy team you can feel like a a thankless job and i
know that but i i gotta tell you that uh...
uh...
a fuel your absence uh...
uh...
indeed in a way that uh... i don't even want to
contemplate frankly uh... hope uh... but um...
whereas predict that so
alright with that said i want to get to the reasons indian just yesterday your
some your thoughts on having done this for so long to be such a big part of of
of the net roots in
and and and uh... the reporting that you've been doing uh... but you know to
have you here in not discuss this latest proposal would be like having
uh... famous chef in your kitchen news crews got the
add-on and said there was a special in saying as i mean gradients warrior uh...
at nice that's bad analogy but whatever detecting impact for the at that point
the
uh...
we have seen the first offer
or or the latest offer coming from the white house
um...
uh... just break it down for us uh... briefly and give me a sense of one of
what your feelings about this offer our
and what we know about whether or not bainer boner is going to accept
ragtime proper right uh...
from the white house
uh... responding to suck our offer is up
and and the ostensible goal here is to vote for
that that's cool
uh... what is commonly called the fiscal but now now
ish in the event that we did not
avert that the congress
took no action
between five hundred and six hundred billion dollars of austerity
would hit this year
uh... under this
deal now wait a second break down the uh... the austerity that you're talking
about that five or six hundred billion dollars
um... this like a new brightest orchestra recoverable r_t_c_ while he is
uh... the exploration of the bush era tax cut
uh...
which um... is probably uh... it's the market that happened
okay but you also that the seaquest
uh... on uh...
uh... discretionary defense spending that's about the hundred
billion dollars work the next fiscal year
uh... well the allotment i'm always when i'm popping up in public on the stand up
for twenty third
okay dot you have the exploration of the payroll tax cut which was this
program that would cost that would you'll be a hundred and twenty-five
billion
inot carryover at two thousand thirteen
and then you have a variety of other uh... uh...
measures
uh... whether it's unemployment benefits expiring output doc
switcher
uh... prevent uh... cut through the the reimbursement rate for medicare for
doctors
uh... event several other things that it everything went over
but or if it would be something around six hundred as now we should say is also
the implications of those different uh... those different figures
are different in other words exactly multiplier for the the
the three hundred billion dollars worth of tax cut austerity is um... not uh...
is is not acquittal to the austerity impact of three hundred billion dollars
if there was such a thing of let's say unemployment insurance uh... ending the
war 'em or payroll taxes uh...
standing because some of that money is spent more readily by the people who are
the beneficiaries
of those stood
stimulative um... programs web site
writing by a large spending yet federal spending goes too
probable populations and people who we needed to and will spend the money and
time
so are spending usually have a higher mop or taxes
out the payroll tax cut which is
fairly well targeted to middle-class families it's really a wage subsidy
uh... it's is
more
that had more of its been move impact and friend tax cuts for the rich
uh... anyway
uh... so this latest offer
you look at it relative with that
mike back of the envelope calculation is that it would have about
three hundred billion
in austerity
uh... in twenty thirteen
what gets cut out is mostly those tax cut push our tax cut
uh... up to the first four hundred thousand dollars because that that that
that president changed his party
bob now that the dividing line if not two hundred fifty thousand but in this
latest offer four hundred thousand here
only beefed up marginal tax rate rap and hip hop to marginal tax rate
would go up under the plant
if you look over the course of the whole plan uh... india
the sequester there there was about nine hundred an eighty four billion dollars
spending cuts
uh... and those were targeted to discretionary defense spending and
holding
uh... uh...
social insurance and parmar
uh... in this latest offer there's not a hundred and twenty-two billion
are spending cuts
and if it will not hold
social insurance caps unless in fact there are four hundred billion in
unidentified
medicare or help
program cuts
i could be medicare medicaid or or various other things that uh...
uh... and there is this change c_p_i_ does change for the calculation
of the cost of living judgment changed to the inflation index
uh... that would impact social security benefits and make them corals
look more slowly over time for it's really a benefit uh... small overtime
relative to inflation so uh... this is a reality is it's it's it's it's a cot
incumbents
absolutely at the purchasing power
so
there's almost no difference
which means going over the clerk at work
and
taking the old bomb a deal in terms of spending
in terms of spending cuts
almost equal
and out you can argue that
simply and they
social insurance program
which are targeted at the apparent that the poor him the elderly
uh... that they would have a
i'm more disparate impact
than uh... chest
doing nothing in the local
so back to the contact for for when you're looking at this deal
uh... there's barely know change on the spending side arguably worse
uh... because of a cups of social insurance
outfit
issue
somewhat the same advocate
uh...
you know i've accepted wonder what the people of about partylite exchanged
although the op marginal tax rate
that would go up under the o'connell y_m_
uh... at four hundred thousand dollar but then there was all that unidentified
other
revenue increases that we'd get you to one point two
trillion
uh... in revenue increases under this deal relative to just letting the
property tax rate expire
which we tell you about a hundred ily
so there's about a fifty percent increase in revenue from that
but the spending cuts are the same presumably in
yuki in more taxes
so that you can't find him
odd
spending
up by government
what what we're saying here as we were taken more taxes
and we're going up like that the deficit reduction and we're going to the finger
amount of spending
that were envision previously
uh... under at the third fiscal
the very bad uh... recipe in terms of the issue or
or one goal
is to in some way
uh... prevented a as deepening or a continuing uh... stagnation
of the uh...
recession or the anemic recovery let's say well uh... wait there's more
but wait there's more of that not only would this be a good about three hundred
billion tera ghar sms
uh... ideas here you would
stand unemployment insurance
uh endorse
uh... paid notion of increased infrastructure spending on the field
budget it's about one-tenth
up the overall spending cuts that are in billion in the peel if back
i mean that the numbers are permanent a permanent error
but out the biggest thing i one of the biggest thing
in addition to that effect reiterate what nixon two-year
he cries
debt limit
under this
propose plant
would only be increase for the next whom here
under the deal which that means that com twenty fourteen
the bear rule which is that
you don't increase the debt limit without one
uh... uh... subsequent
decreased
in spending more ordinary entitlement reform and social church reform
but that would
he'll be even quite
and even twenty fourteen
you would have to raise the debt limit began it john bainer has anything with
that that witness regarding things that i would
and by the way in twenty fourteen i don't think
that's the theory is that democrats will suddenly get sixty votes
and with that
work that they will archie campaign and taking back the house getting seventeen
feet necessary is a bit of a long shot although help a lot of things can happen
two years
republican is still the position to cake the debt limit hostage they will and
they have the ability to
under the steel interior
and i would argue that i'm not only even if
all things are equal as of today
uh... will democrats not be in a better position
moment that uh... that deal is sealed
you've got a lot of republican operatives going around saying democrats
began to cut your social security um... which i think is gonna cost anywhere
from ten to twenty seats in the house and i think at a minimum
uh... because they were so effective doing this last time in twenty ten in
terms of medicare
so uh... huh
him up or prime minister bait
republican whip in caring
democrat
support
that cuts
particularly the social insurance programs on the table themselves
base that
you you come up with the tax increases and you come up with the benefit cuts
i think we were in the position of negotiating with themselves
ratan art here the president did it and now up at they land addicting game in
two thousand ten when they said look with democrat picked up the cut your
medicare
out they can run around for a look with democrats that even if they voted for it
to support
it throughout cut your social security of course because this was put on the
table by the president first let me know that something you know that's the and
even look
the dead of the republicans have shown that they have no compunction about the
making that argument they've done it before so
uh... there's no reason to think it would be irrational to think that they
won't do it again
it would be it would be
it would be highly irrational to believe that so okay with that said
now we have uh... dick durbin apparently came out
today
said no so that no console scary benefits has just been reported uh... by
greg sardonno that uh... the plumb line
um... huh
we have been there
uh... saying we're gonna go to our planned b i guess which is why plan
bainer where uh... at the i don't know if you needed after himself
uh... abdi uh... where we've heard now apollo ceasing
plan b won't fly
think there's going to actually be a deal here because i was just shocked
last night at about whatever whatever time it was
that all this sort of was uh... it was around i don't know seven p_m_ ezra
klein comes out with his story or six p m or five p m and then everybody seems
to have added and by by eleven p m people are to our reporting on this as
if it's already have been signed
he you know i new york just stunning where did you know we have a case in our
twenty four hour media cycle where everyone immediately jumping to accept
the video
uh... but you know i mean we saw this with the medicare eligibility age uh...
these things are
off-loaded for a reason
uh... they need to gauge the public response
response of their respective bases
uh... and so it's important to uh... uh... participate methods goshen
japanese as i i think you you alluded to and on a number of days so
odd
maybe this is getting uh... out worse response
uh... them we think if people are edging away with it the promise within the
first twenty four hours of its report and that in this is when it's okie too
because you want to stop its momentum this trial balloon gets up there it's
always you know look ah...
wanna knocked down a trial balloon too much easy do it when it's a fathi went
to fifty feet
right at k that
you had people like paul krugman coming out in saying they were marginally
positive on at the idea that it was better
bangkok at everything else eligibility age for medicare uh... you have
eighty-seven i know he said that last night at eleven this morning he started
moving the other direction
it is sized but it was out there right you have
the federal budget and policy priorities which at walden
uh... argued in favor uh...
a uh... chain c_p_i_ process
security changing the inflation and that
at walden enacted it
something to protect the poor somehow in that
or seniors within that i don't know how you would do that and spill state money
spent
out the latest parties that picture of it fifteen point one percent of seniors
live in poverty
this is a bit of an argument for reading
uh... social security benefits not for cutting you were talking about these
cuts this austerity benefits
wasn't held the ball we're talking about what it's like a hundred billion dollars
over the course of ten years this is a this is piddling stuff
isn't on the last week and i'll ask you to make taping
they're keeping fit later one
it would not close the long-term funding gap not even clear explodes
barely a third of it
and uh... in in other words you would be staying let do this card and that we're
still going to have to have that conversation around close security
sometime in the future
when uh... you ever love argued for appellant solution but it won't be about
pollution kotwal i've already done that got right
definitely up so that number one number two i'd the the more obvious thing that
social security
uh... does not contribute to the deficit whatsoever and never happen seventy-five
years why is it
elite yet but that
art if etiquette is it is not something that uh... something with that
undeveloped dedicated revenue that had nothing to do with the project
uh... that
eight in other change c_p_i_ also would be used on other things that involve the
cost of living it up but apparently but that includes food stamp include
veterans benefits that includes up pensions and and even towers perhaps for
some government workers
who ought to get their there
their and you always based on cost of living judgment
uh... so that this could affect it also could affect tax bracket
uh... it goes go up
based on a change c_p_i_ to those will go up more slowly at wages rose faster
than that measure of inflation out what you end up having with the requested
accessory
elaborate plot it would actually that on average about a hundred dollars uh... to
people's taxes uh...
to people's taxes but it will particularly here
that's on average up
but it will particularly does people i think that between thirteen fifty
thousand authors the year
uh... back which is just let the back then create
so provided by the way it was i think that part of it
backed down on the benefit cuts the right there trying to hold off the
regret the fact that they
uh...
so we don't know exactly
everything that chain c_p_i_ would would apply it to but we know that apply it
was a security act up budget answer is ridiculous because so security doesn't
but by
and and then we're talking about depending on how you measure dad doug
and without the cept is saying it's amounts to a ten percent cut in benefits
uh... so hewlett repeat compound bow that's right enough work in the first
ten years and put the five percent right report by the five percent
and if you keep a living longer uh... the effect
gets great gas of the best way to be that um... reduction in uh... benefits
is to die young
uh... so that say yes strategy that i think uh... some you know uh...
financial advisors are basically down their clients
uh... we really don't say just let me be very full life but don't don't go so
long
uh... all but quick
relatively few less