A persistent source of tension in the relationship between the United States and China is the
status of Taiwan, which has long been a contentious issue between the two countries.
The Chinese government considers Taiwan to be an integral part of its territory and has
pledged to assert its authority over the island, even through military means if required.
Though Beijing has been pressuring Taiwan by sending warplanes and warships for several
years, the situation became even more tense after Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island
last summer, becoming the highest-level U.S. political leader to travel there in 25 years.
While there is now a very clear possibility of China invading Taiwan, new insights from
the CIA chief indicate that Beijing is unsure of its military’s ability to pull off a
successful annexation.
In this video Defense Updates analyzes what is CIA chief’s assessment of China’s potential
attempt to invade Taiwan?
Let's get started.
US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns stated Russia’s struggles to seize
and keep territory in Ukraine over the past year has likely fueled doubts by Chinese leader
Xi Jinping that China’s military could successfully invade Taiwan later this decade.
Mr. Burns said on CBS, “I think our judgment at least is that (Chinese)
President Xi and his military leadership have doubts today about whether they could accomplish
that invasion.
As they’ve looked at Putin’s experience in Ukraine, that’s probably reinforced some
of those doubts.”
Mr. Burns said that the U.S. continued to take the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
seriously, adding that the risks of a conflict would likely grow further into the decade
and beyond.
U.S. intelligence and defense officials believe Mr. Xi wants to be ready to do so by 2027,
if not sooner, but Mr. Burns said that goal isn’t set in stone.
He stated, “President Xi has instructed the PLA, the
Chinese military leadership, to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, but that doesn’t
mean that he’s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,”
He added that the Chinese leader was likely "surprised and unsettled" and trying to draw
lessons by the "very poor performance" of the Russian military and its weapons systems
in Ukraine.
Mr. Burns said that U.S. and European assistance for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion could
also be factored into China’s calculus about an invasion of Taiwan by demonstrating the
West’s collective resolve.
It is important to note in this context that the relationship between Taiwan–the United
States is unofficial and informal and is governed by the Taiwan Relations Act.
Taiwan Relations Act is designed to maintain ambiguity and does not state if the USA will
or will not intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades Taiwan.
Under the act, the U.S. is obligated to sell “arms of a defensive character” to Taiwan.
While China’s military budget and capacity dwarf that of Taiwan, Beijing has reason to
be circumspect.
There are two key aspects to this.
First of all, unlike Russia, which could easily invade by just moving across the border, the
situation with Taiwan is different.
China is separated from Taiwan through the Taiwan Strait which is about 100 miles or
160 km wide.
China will have to move its forces across the strait in case it decides to invade and
we all know that this kind of amphibious operation is very difficult.
Secondly, China mainly has Russian equipment or their copies created through reverse engineering.
As evident in Ukraine, Russian arms have been found not to be as effective as earlier believed.
So, China will have to take this into account very carefully, especially since contrary
to Ukraine, Taiwan is equipped with many top-of-the-line American weapons.
Its remains remains to be seen, if Chinese leader Xi Jinping has the guts to take the
difficult call taking into considerations all the crucial facets.