okay.
Every once in a while.
I like to look at what the betting money has to say about what's going to happen in November
of 2020 and there's something interesting which is that if you pull people and say,
who do you support in an election, you get one set of results and that's the way typical
polling is done.
You can do the polls a different way, which is you can say, regardless of who you support,
who do you think will ultimately win an election?
And you often get different results and very often they are quite accurate.
One way that people show who they believe is going to win is by betting money in prediction
markets, which you can do online and in the last 48 hours, something very interesting
has happened.
The money now has Bernie Sanders as the most likely to be democratic nominee.
Again, this is not who supports Bernie.
It's what are people betting on in terms of who will be the democratic nominee.
And it still has Donald Trump's reelection as the most likely single outcome, in fact,
significantly spiking as well over the last little while.
So let me explain all of this, predict wise is a website that aggregates the betting on
different betting websites.
Oftentimes thinking in bets is a good idea to clarify how confident we are in our belief
that something will or won't happen.
So for me to say Bernie's going to be the nominee or he won't, of course I can't have
100% certainty that he will or that he won't.
So sometimes when you think about it as a bet, you're assigning some level of confidence.
So for example, if I have 60% certainty that Bernie would be the nominee, I might be willing
to bet $100 to win $160 on that bet, right?
I'm making up these numbers.
Or if I'm not super confident, I might be willing to risk $100.
Uh, only if I were to win 400 if I was right because my confidence is lower.
So I've got to have more possibly coming my way.
Raising the expected value of the bet.
The math doesn't really matter except to say that a lot of people are betting on these
outcomes and over the last six weeks, the money betting that Trump will be the eventual
winner of the November, 2020 election has gone up quite a bit and is now at 53% 53%
of all the money being bet says Trump gets reelected.
The next most likely outcomes are 14% believe Biden will be the next president.
14% believe Bernie will be the next president.
Much smaller percentages for other candidates.
Now for the democratic nomination over the last few days, the numbers have hugely spiked
for Bernie Sanders putting him in the lead.
31% of the betting believes Bernie will be the nominee taking a lead over 28% who believe
it will be Joe Biden.
11% say Bloomberg and 10% say Warren.
So as you can see, these numbers are not the polling numbers.
Bloomberg at 11% is way over representative overrepresented.
Rhett represented relative to the 5% that he's polling.
Because again, these are prediction markets.
This is not who do you support.
It's based on all factors that you consider.
Who do you think will ultimately win?
So what has caused this, there's probably a number of factors.
Number one, Bernie taking a lead last week in the historically important Des Moines register
poll of Iowa voters has certainly helped him in the prediction markets.
Bernie taking a lead in a number of recent California polls.
California is an important state for the primary.
Many delegates, Bernie leading in two of the last three polls there to some degree.
It appears that the Bernie said a woman can't win attack.
That fiasco may have failed and uh, Bernie may not be as vulnerable as some might think
to such a smear campaign.
And that may have helped him in the prediction markets as well, although I'm sure there will
be more attack attempts in the coming months.
Now there's an important statistical reality that we have to contend with here.
You hear a lot of Bernie supporters say Bernie is the only one who can beat Trump.
Many people say this about whoever they support.
We have Bernie supporters who say Bernie is the only one that can win.
I have yang supporters who say, Yang's the only one that can win.
I have tools.
See supporters who say she's the only one that can win.
Not so much about Biden, but the idea is a lot of people say to me, the person I support
is the only one who can defeat Donald Trump in the betting markets.
Note that as Bernie's nomination has become more and more likely based on the bedding,
Trump's reelection has also become more and more likely in terms of the bedding.
So it may be different people betting on each, but we have to, uh, contend with the reality
that as more and more people believe Bernie will be the nominee, more and more people
believe Trump will be reelected president of the United States.
Given the historical accuracy of the betting markets.
We may not want to ignore this, although of course, nothing is set in stone and trying
to defeat an incumbent like Donald Trump is different than anything that we've seen in
American political history.
So let me know what you think about this.
And specifically, here's the question I want you to answer.
Why have the betting odds for a Trump reelection increased in parallel with the betting odds
for a Bernie democratic nomination?
I want to hear from you.
We will follow up about this on the David Pakman show Instagram.
Please make sure you're following it at David Pakman.
And while
you're there, it gives me a follow.
I posted some unhinged hate mail this morning, but I got, I'm David dot packed on Instagram