Carlo Ancelotti inherited a machine from Maurizio Sarri. The banker-turned manager guided Napoli
to second place twice in three years. Napoli almost dethroned Juventus last season, and
amassed a club record of 91 points. Unfortunately, they fell 5 points short of taking the Scudetto
and these results couldn't satisfy their president Aurelio De Laurentiis. He believed his side
had been good enough to win Serie A, but Sarri blew their chance with his rigid tactics.
So out went Sarri and in came Ancelotti. De Laurentiis believes that he has found the
final piece to take down the Turin giant.
Ancelotti faces a gigantic task. Sarri installed a beautiful but also effective style of football
in Napoli. People love the so-called "Sarriball"; ESPN’s Michael Cox called its use of the
build-up from the back as a "pressing bait." Napoli played a ridiculous number of short
passes and positional exchanges under Sarri. He wanted to overwhelm the opponents. They
held a constant high pressing line so that they could dominate possession and avoid being
attacked. "The best defense is a good offense" is Sarri's motto.
Although it is pleasing to watch the quick one-twos and constant movement, Sarri's style
is hard to maintain. Every element in Sarriball depends on each other, and the fall of one
element destroys the whole system. Every player needs to be on the same wavelength at all
time. These demanding tasks mean that there isn't room for errors. Not everyone could
make the cut, so Sarri stuck with about 13/14 players with meaningful minutes every season.
A lack of rotation has been a major criticism for Sarriball.
De Laurentiis might be right. That hesitation to rotate might have cost them the Scudetto.
Using Expected Goals (xG) and the ball possession to measure offensive and defensive efficiency,
Napoli slowed down considerably in the second half of the last season (graph #1). They were
not efficient in generating chances, and their opponent created more shooting opportunities
in the final stage of the campaign. Although Napoli maintained similar intensity in their
high pressing (graph #2), the opponent found it easier to pass through the pressure in
the second half of the season than they did in the first half. Napoli's starters might
be exhausted from the lack of rotations, or the opponent found the ways to neutralize
their tactics. Either way, Sarriball had become ineffective as Serie A entered the critical
stage of the last season.
The first thing Ancelotti has done is distribute minutes to more players with the aim of keeping
his starters will be fresh in the final part of the season. Napoli are now rotating more
than they did at the same stage of the last season (table #1).
With more players entering the rotation, Ancelotti needs new tactics to maintain Napoli's competitive
edge. Sarriball is meticulously designed, but also tedious to carry out. Ancelotti needs
a system that is effective but also easy to implement. His changes are as follows: First,
Napoli now playing faster; the number of passes per possession and the duration of possession
has decreased by close to 10%. Instead of playing only short passes, Napoli have doubled
their long switching pass - any pass that travels at least 60% of the width of the field.
They’ve also shifted from a 4-3-3 to a hybrid 4-4-2. Under Sarri, their pass network focused
on the connections Jorginho made in the center, and Lorenzo Insigne / Marek Hamsik made in
the left half space (graph #4). Napoli now play more on the right side using their newfound
switching pass (graph #5). The 4-4-2 focuses on the flank and Napoli transform into a 2-4-4
in the offensive phase. The fullbacks and the wingers hog the sidelines to stretch the
opponent's defense. The key is to use the width of the field - instead of the lightning
short passes - to open the space between the lines:
Ancelotti is also more flexible with game-to-game adjustment than his predecessor. He may always
field the same 4-4-2, but the attacking shape and method will change according to how the
opponent defends. The popularity of the 3-5-2 in Italy, especially among the weaker teams,
means that Napoli have to face many opponents defending with a 5-man back line. Ancelotti
responds to it with a mirrored 2-3-5 attacking shape:
Ancelotti has also modified Napoli's defensive game. He’s retained Sarri's constant high-pressure
line and frantic counter-pressing system, but he’s also improved their zonal defense:
When Napoli fail to retrieve the ball through their pressing or counter-pressing, they quickly
form a narrow 4-4-2 block, as they don't want the opponent to penetrate the middle space.
Napoli's central midfielder will immediately close down the ball handler in the center.
They want to force the ball handler to play with his back toward Napoli's goal or send
the ball to the flanks:
This PassSonar summarizes Napoli's opponent's passing behavior in the central midfield.
This season, Ancelotti's men limit their opponent’s use of long vertical passes to bypass the
middle of their defense. They force the opponent to reroute its passes to the flank where they
can maintain the compact shape while covering less space.
The different philosophies of the two coaches are in full display; Sarri wants to overwhelm
the opponent with precise and repetitive passes and movement. Ancelotti aims to confuse opponents,
with his team’s flexibility dominating the key areas of the pitch.
But the burning question is whether Napoli are playing better than they were under Sarri.
The result doesn't look promising.
Compared to the last season, Napoli have created a smaller xG differential. The difference
isn't statistically significant, but the trends suggest that they are not playing as well
as they did under Sarri. They generate fewer xG and concede more xG to their opponent than
last season. So, even though Napoli are playing more efficiently
than last season, their 100 fewer passes per game under Ancelotti still leads to their
opponents creating more attempts on goal, as those lost passes have just reverted to
the opponent. The jury is still out, but, unfortunately for Napoli, Juventus do look
set to claim the Scudetto once again, this season.