amna: This has been a long and
brutal summer in Ukraine as
Kyiv's counteroffensive
continues to re-take its lands
in the east and south now
occupied by Russia.
A leading British military think
tank today reported that the
Ukrainian operation is going
more slowly than expected, and
blaming the slow provision of
advanced weaponry by western
partners.
Meantime, the fighting, and
dying, continue at a horrendous
pace.
In the eastern Ukrainian city of
pokrovsk, a desperate search for
survivors, a day after a deadly
Russian attack.
Residents still reeling from the
shelling that killed at least
seven people, and wounded
dozens, even the most innocent.
Ukraine says Russia launched two
missiles, 40 minutes apart, to
target rescue workers after the
initial strike, a tactic called
a "Double tap."
The attack came late in the
evening, destroying vehicles and
apartment buildings.
58-year-old kateryna was at home
at the time of the blast.
The blood from injuries on her
face still fresh.
>> The flame filled up my eyes.
I fell down on the floor, on the
ground.
My eyes hurt a lot, otherwise I
am ok, just the shrapnel in my
neck.
Lisa: Meanwhile, Ukrainian
soldiers continue the fight
against Russia, in their now
two-month counteroffensive.
They have western training, nats
-- they have western training,
U.S. And european-made weapons,
and seemingly infinite resolve
despite soaring temperatures.
>> We don't pay attention to
heat.
Work must be done.
We don't spare ourselves.
Lisa: -- Amna: At the end of
July, Ukraine liberated
staromaiorske, in a campaign
that aims to cut Russia's land
bridge from the east to the
south and occupied-crimea.
But progress has been slow along
the 900-mile frontline, and it
comes at great cost.
There's no official figure for
Ukrainian casualties, but at
field hospitals like this one
near bakhmut, soldiers stream in
from the battlefield, their
injuries a relentless reminder
of the toll of war.
Nats Ukrainians are facing
deeply dug-in Russian forces,
-- who've constructed and
fortified hard-to-overcome
obstacles including these
so-called "Dragon teeth
barricades," and hundreds of
miles of concentrated landmines,
where now even Russian corpses
can kill.
>> When they leave, they plant
quite a lot of explosives under
their own soldiers.
And this is very dangerous for
us.
Amna: Despite the frontline
dangers, last week president
volodymyr zelenskyy said Ukraine
is succeeding.
>> The occupiers are trying to
stop our boys with all their
strength.
But whatever the enemy does, it
is Ukrainian strength that
dominates.
Amna: For more on the state of
the war, we get two views.
Michael Vickers was a senior
defense department official
under presidents George W. Bush
and Obama, and served as the
CIA's chief strategist during
the Reagan administration.
He is the author of "By all
means available: Memoirs of a
life in intelligence, special
operations, and strategy."
And Jennifer Cafarella is the
chief of staff and national
security fellow at the institute
for the study of war.
A think tank that tracks
military developments.
Welcome to you both.
Mike, I want to begin with you.
You heard president zelenskyy
say they are
succeeding.
What is your assessment?
Michael: They hold the strategic
initiative but the count
initiative is proving more
difficult than many hoped.
While it is important to note,
Ukraine has not committed its
primary force yet.
They have not been able to make
much progress against a dug in
enemy that has had a lot of time
to prepare defenses.
Amna: Jennifer, what is your
take on that?
Why have Ukrainian forces run
into the problems they have
Eschenbach Jennifer: The upper
--they have?
Jennifer: The operation is an
incredibly difficult one and
they face an enemy that had time
to prepare.
What we are watching is the
Ukrainians do what all
hard-fought military gains
require, which is to learn and
adapt on the battlefield.
They are learning and adapting
and they are experiencing some
success although they have not
yet achieved that breakthrough
that we all hope that they will
ultimately achieve.
They are stretching Russian
forces and as was already
mentioned, the Ukrainians have a
reserve.
They can commit to the fight.
Russians do not.
There are many reasons to think
that while this is a grind, the
Ukrainians can still advance.
Amna: The expectations from the
Americans going into this
counteroffensive were quite
high.
There was a lot of optimism.
The idea that with the provision
of those advanced military
systems, with cluster bombs, the
Ukrainians could break through
Russian lines.
Were those expectations
unrealistic?
Michael: Let me say, we have
given Ukraine a lot of military
assistance, but I don't think we
have given them enough to win.
And they can win.
While the munitions were a big
step forward, we have not given
them long range surface to
surface missiles or the army
tactical missile system that can
reach out 300 kilometers.
A fighter aircraft is still on
the way.
As are some armored vehicles.
And the ammunition supply is
being built up over time so you
know, we would not fight the way
we are asking Ukraine to fight.
We hope they will have success
but if we really want them to
win this thing, we will have to
provide more assistance.
Amna: Jennifer, do you agree
with that?
Jennifer: I would agree.
We would never fight this way
because the casualties are so
high and the cost is so high,
but by god, the Ukrainians are
committed to this fight and go
advancing.
This is a question of enabling
them to fight faster, reduce
their costs, and overpower the
Russians before the Russians are
able to patch some of the
vulnerabilities that plagued
them thus far.
Amna: What about those T's? We
talk about --those casualties?
What about the casualties on the
Ukrainian side and the more out
there -- morale there?
Jennifer: What we know is that
Ukrainian commitment to this
fight remains extraordinarily
high.
The Ukrainians do not seem
deterred by the slow progress
they are experiencing on the
battlefield.
In many respects going into this
offensive, they may have had
more realistic expectations
about the nature of the fighting
and the costs they would take
then some in Washington, hoping
for a major breakthrough.
Amna: Some of the conversation
leading into the
counteroffensive was with enough
support, Ukraine can make enough
gains that they at least improve
their position for a better
potential negotiating position
down the line.
Do you see that happening?
Michael: It may take into next
year.
There is a chance the Russian
army could collapse this year
but if we want to increase the
onset of the outcome, and I sure
hope we do, we will have to make
up a little kid -- the political
case for it.
Amna: Jennifer, what do you make
of that?
Jennifer: It is important that
we do not impose upon Ukraine a
desire for what they might
regard as a prima care --
premature negotiation.
They expect to retake all their
terrain and they expect the
Russians to pay for damages and
for war crimes to be prosecuted.
Those are the Ukrainian war aims
in this case.
Diplomacy always has a place and
we would hope it would be
possible to negotiate an end to
this conflict that sees a
withdrawal of Russian forces.
So far, Vladimir Putin has shown
a willingness to negotiate.
Amna: Do you see this conflict
changing shape significantly as
we move into the end of the
fighting season later this year?
Michael: Eventually, the weather
will slow down offensive
operations but you know, the
conflict morphed in a variety of
ways since the beginning and the
Ukrainians have performed in a
spectacular fashion throughout.
The decisive phase is yet to
come.
As I mentioned, the Ukrainians
will need more assistance to
give them the best odds of doing
that.
We are asking them to fight
World War I style right now and
military affairs has moved way
beyond that.
>> Are we moving into a much
longer term frozen conflict?
They are more short range
antiaircraft systems and while
that will help with mobile air
defenses, the Ukrainians will
need more than that to achieve
fire superiority and cut off the
land routes into crimea from the
Russian mainland.
That is really the next phase.
Jennifer, amna: Jennifer, look
ahead for us if you will.
Jennifer: Concerns about a
protraction are further argument
for why the west needs can you
to not only provide aid but to
accelerate the provision of a
but we need to keep in mind that
this kind of war is not going to
be linear so I'm sure that there
will be further surprises and
those surprises can include a
loss of Russian morale or a
breakdown in Russian defenses.
It could fundamentally change
this conflict.
It is difficult to predict when
or where that could happen that
it is very much on the table so
there could be some surprises to
come in the coming months.
Amna: Jennifer and Michael,
thank you both for joining us
tonight.
Appreciate it.
>> My pleasure.
>> Thank you.
♪♪