4.1% SIX MONTHS JOBS CREATED
IN APRIL 164,000.
BACK TO YOU.
MARIA: S THANK YOU A MIXED
REPORT BECAUSE NUMBER OF JOBS
CREATED WAS WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED BUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
COMING DOWN TO 3.9%, WAS
BETTER THAN LOOKING FOR 3.9%
YOUR THOUGHTS.
>> THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOWN
LABOR FORCE SHRANK IS NOT
BULLISH WE WANT TO SEE PEOPLE
IN LABOR FORCE POSITIVE ABOUT
EMPLOYMENT.
>> 2.6 HEALED ON AVERAGE
HOURLY EARNINGS OBVIOUSLY TICK
LOWER THAN EXPECTED PPI IS
2.4%, SO IN REAL TERMS LOOKING
AT ALMOST ZERO REAL WAGE
GROWTH HERE.
THAT IS GOING TO ADD TO
FURTHER CONSTRAINT ONS
CONSUMER SPENDING MOVING
FORWARD.
MARIA: SOUNDS NOT AS GOOD AS
WE WOULD HAVE EXPECTED.
>> CERTAINLY WOULDN'T BE --
FOR FED TO MOVE MORE
AGGRESSIVELY.
CHARLES: I AGREE, ONE
CERTAINLY WILL MAKE MARKET
HAPPY BUT THIS WON'T MOVE
NEEDLE AT FED I AM TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT MAYBE, WHAT METRIC
INFLATION IS ANYWAY ONCE PAST
THAT I LIKE THE CONSTRUCTION
17,000 MANUFACTURING 4,000
MINING 8,000, THOSE ARE KIND
OF FOLKS JUST HAVE BEEN LEFT
OUT FOR A LISTENING TIME
OUT FOR A LISTENING TIM
OUT FOR A LISTENING LOM
OUT FOR A LISTENING LONG
OUT FOR A LISTENING LONG T
OUT FOR A LISTENING LONG TIM
OUT FOR A LISTENING LONG TIME
I CHEER A PIECE OF PROSPERITY
OVERALL I THOUGHT HIGHER
NUMBER SORT OF PLODDING ALONG
NO NEED FOR FED TO TAKE
ACTIONS THAT I CAN SEE.
>> I THIS I THE STORY FED IS
GOING TO LOOK AT THIS SAY NO
NEED THE TALK ABOUT THREE MORE
THIS YEAR TWO MORE THIS YEAR
PROBABLY MAKE MARKETS HAPPY
THEY GET HE NERVOUS ABOUT WAGE
NUMBER IT IS TOTALLY
UNIMPRESSIVE 2.6, LESS THAN
EXPECTED NOWHERE NEAR LEVEL
YOU WANT TO SEE WITH MORE
PEOPLE GETTING MORE MONEY IN
POCKETS, SO THIS IS A PROBABLY
MARKET GOING TO LIKE IT NOT
GREAT FROM STANDPOINT OF
HEALTH OF LABOR MARKETS 3.9
DOES NOT TELL US THINGS
NECESSARILY BETTER IT MEANS
PEOPLE DROPPING OUT.
MARIA: ON AREA SERVICES
PRODUCING JOBS DAGEN WHERE JOB
CREATION WAS WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE ECONOMY NO SURPRISE
THERE THAT IS WHERE THE BULK
OF HIRING WAS, FOLLOWED BY
GOODS PRODUCING 49,000 THAT IS
WHERE WE ARE --
DAGEN: MANUFACTURING BETTER
THAN EXPECTED 24,000 JOBS
ADDED TO EXPECTATION WAS FOR
20,000, SO AGAIN, IF YOU LOOK
AT CONSTRUCTION, TO YOUR POINT
ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS ON
RECORD WE STILL HAD TO ADD --
JOBS IN CONSTRUCTION.
MARIA: YOU WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED NOT GREAT NUMBER
BECAUSE WEATHER WAS SO BAD AND
CONSTRUCTION MAYBE STILL DOWN?
>> BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED NUMBER
FOR SURE YOUR REACTION?
>> YOU KNOW, I WAS EXPECTING A
BIT OF WEAKNESS INTO THE
REPORT BECAUSE WE SAW THOSE IN
MANUFACTURING, SERVICES --
SURVEY EXCUSE ME YESTERDAY WE
SAW THAT THAT EMPLOYMENT BROPD
TO LOWEST SINCE APRIL 2017
THERE WAS ALSO SOME WEAKNESS
IN ADP REPORT THAT CAME UP
EARLIER THIS WEEK IN ADDITION
TO WHAT ALL OF THE GUESTS ARE
TALKING ABOUT OBVIOUSLY
LAYOFFS CERTAIN SECTORS OF THE
ECONOMY TOYS "R" US LAY-OFFS
ARE STARTING TO PERCOLATE
THROUGH IN NUMBERS I THINK SO
I THINK, I THINK THE LITTLE
DIP, OFF WHAT WAS EXPECTED
WHAT -- WE KNEW ABOUT IT IN
ADVANCE BUT I WOULD ALSO POINT
TO REVISIONS NOT BEING ABOUT
NEAR AS STRONG AS YOU WOULD
HAVE LIKED -- MARCH REVISED UP
MUCH MORE STRONGLY.
>> GOOD POINT JON HILSENRATH
REACTION?
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'RE
THROWING A LOT OF NUMBERS
AROUND OUT HERE ONE NUMBER
THAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO PAY
ATTENTION TO IS 3.9%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EMPLOYMENT
GROWTH IS FINE RIGHT NOW, YOU
KNOW, WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT OVER
THE LAST THREE MONTHS,
BASICALLY RIGHT IN LINE WITH
WHERE IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL
YEARS, 3.9% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
MEANS THAT OUR JOB MARKET IS
SQUEEZED, LABOR IS BECOMING
MORE SCARCE WE'RE NOT SEEING
IN WAGES NOW BUT WE ARE SEEING
PRESSURE BUILD ANECDOTALLY FOR
FED MEANS GOING TO DO TWO MORE
INTEREST RATE INCREASES THIS
YEAR CERTAINLY THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY IF UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE KEEPSS GOING, GO TO
THREE.
DAGEN: AGAIN TO STEPHANIE'S
POINT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL
CASE NEARLY A QUARTER OF A
MILLION PEOPLE DROPPED OUT OF
THE LABOR FORCE, LABOR
PARTICIPATION RATE ACTUALLY
FELL SLIGHTLY 1/10 OF A
PERCENT.
>> EXPECT THAT KIND OF THING
TO HAPPEN WHEN YOU HAVE AN
AGING POPULATION BABY BOOMERS
RETIRING WHAT MATTERS FOR FED
IN TERMS OF WAGES INFLATION
ARE WE SEEING MORE PRICE AND
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING LOWER
THAT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GETS
REGARDLESS WHY GETTING LOW
MORE PRESSURE LABOR SKWOOES
THE TERM WOULD I USE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNDER 4%.
DAGEN: WAGE GROWTH 2.6%.
>> ONE OF THE PUZZLES, I THINK
THAT IS WHAT BUSINESS, IS THE
THING WRESTLING WITH NUMBER
PRICE PRESSURES CAN THEY PASS
ON HOW MUCH CAN THEY HOLD OFF
CAN THEY PASS IT ON TO
CONSUMERS AND HOW MUCH CAN
THEY HOLD OFF WAGE INCREASES
FOR THE WORKERS.
>> I THINK STILL A QUESTION I
DON'T SEE FED GETTING
AGGRESSIVE HERE BECAUSE THE
ECONOMY WHILE SHOWING GROWTH
IS NOT GANG BUSTER, THE
BIGGEST RIV MAY VERY WELL BE
FEDERAL RESERVE OVERSTEPPING.
>> THE CORPORATE BOND MARKET
IS TIGHTENING SO REGARDLESS OF
WHAT THE FED IS DOING IN
BACKGROUND, YOU'VE SEEN BACK
OF INCREASE TREASURY YIELDS
ELSE A HUGE BACKUP IN HIGH
YIELDS AND INVESTMENT GRADE
BONDS, AND THERE IS A TRILLION
DOLLARS IN DEBT THAT AIMS TO
ROLL THIS YEAR IN CORPORATE
MARKET NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT
GOING TO ROLL IT SUBSTANTIALLY
HIGHER RATE ANOTHER DRAG ON --
>> SUPPLY.
>> [LAUGHTER].
DAGEN: --
>> WAS MENTIONED EARLIER THIS
WEEK, AT MILKEN CONFERENCE
YOUR TAKE WHERE OPPORTUNITIES
ARE TODAY IN THE ECONOMY.
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, I CAN TELL
YOU MARIA AT -- WE DO A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF STAFFING,
IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN WORLD, YOU
KNOW THERE IS A STRONG DEMAND
FOR MANUFACTURING, AND
TRANSPORTATION SO I CONTINUE
TO SEE THAT THERE ARE MORE
JOBS OUT THERE THAN WE CAN
FIND GOOD TALENT.
AND THE THINGS THAT PROBABLY
CONCERN ME IN THE REPORT ARE
THAT LABOR PARTICIPATION DID
DECLINE BECAUSE LESS PEOPLE
ARE PARTICIPATING IN THE
WORKFORCE.
WE NEED TO GET MORE PEOPLE,
PARTICIPATING AND THE OTHER
THING THAT CONCERNS ME, IS
REALLY THE SKILL SHORTAGE, NOT
HAVING SKILLED TALENT MEET
THOSE JOBSS I WAS ON PHONE
THIS WEEK WITH H.R. EXECUTIVES
AT TOYS "R" US TALKING TO THEM
ABOUT HOW WE CAN HELP TAKE
THEIR WORKFORCE, AND FIND THEM
WORK ARE THERE TELLING ME
THOSE PEOPLE ARE FINDING JOBS,
SO WE ARE PARTNERING WITH THEM
TRYING TO HELP THEM FIND JOBS
BUT THEY ARE SAYING IT IS A
VERY GOOD JOB MARKET SO I AM