Hey folks.
I bet you didn't know where I went.
No, I didn't go away for Thanksgiving.
We'd moved our office and that's what put me down for a couple days.
We still don't have internet, so I'm working off my wifi from
my phone, believe it or not.
So the quality's not gonna be the greatest, but the
installation will be on Friday.
So, come next week, we'll be full tilt, but if you're in need of a
mortgage, we'd still love to help you.
So what do we do on this channel?
Why do people subscribe?
Why do people watch me on a daily basis?
Well, I try to give you nothing but the facts when it comes to real estate.
So I'm not gonna dive in the area where people talk about home values and home
values crashing and all this other stuff.
I what?
My goal here is to inform you guys, give you all the tools that you need to know.
To make the final decision for yourself, cuz I can't make that
decision for you when the time to buy.
But once you decide when it's time to buy, our goal here is to educate on you on how
to do the financing piece of the puzzle.
But what I'd like to try to do is at least bring in context that's in the
mainstream media so you can look at what's actually going on in real estate.
And I'm gonna put give you my side of the equation.
Think of it when you're clicking through some things or you're
looking at websites, or you're looking at even YouTube channels.
Why do you click the video that you wanna see, well, the thumbnails intriguing,
and the title might be really cool.
And you're like, Hey, I gotta see it.
And then you click in and it's the same humdrum stuff that you're used to
kind of seeing on every other channel.
But here we want to dive in and really explain to people if you're looking to
buy your first house, what do you do?
What are the steps involved?
You know, do you get, reach out and get a realtor first?
Do you, you know, check and see what you qualify for?
Do you do this?
And that's why we do this.
So if you're wanting to check out all the questions that people
normally have when they're buying the first house, check us out tonight.
We have a live YouTube event, me and Kyle this evening.
It's gonna be five o'clock Central standard time, six o'clock Eastern.
And it's basically for all those.
The first time home buyer questions to get those questions answered.
So let's get over to what's going on in the news today.
So the recent news that we just saw out said the Case-Shiller
Index, and everybody's gonna say, we'll see, house prices are
plummeting and all the other stuff.
So let me go over to the context of warehouse prices are right now.
Just to give you the facts behind the thing, it says, the Case-Shiller
National Price Index continues to decline to 10.6% year over year increase.
Continues to decline, but we have a 10.6 year to year increase.
Okay, so let's put this in a context.
House values are starting to come down a little bit.
Are they crashing?
No, they're actually down just maybe five, 6%.
The consensus is the market's gonna correct maybe nationally in some specific
areas that really saw robust growth.
It might correct about 20%.
Okay.
And I talked to some home builders this weekend and I talked to some
actually CEOs of different companies and things, and they all have the,
basically the same context behind it.
They're not worried about a huge crash, but just a correction of about 20%.
For those out there that are saying, okay, 20% isn't basically a correction,
well, you might wanna go back and do some of your studies because we saw parts of
the United States just this year alone.
Just this year.
So far up over 20%.
So a 20% retraction is just basically putting an adjustment
back to where we started this year.
Okay, so that's that part of it.
You can read all through here, but just to get the context here, you
can see how continues to decline.
That catches your attention.
But then the next thing it says, they're up 10.6% year over year.
Did you know the national average throughout history?
Is between three and 5%.
So 10% in one year is still fantastic, especially what we saw this year, so what
did we see at the beginning of the year?
Well, we saw mortgage rates go from basically two and a half percent to seven.
Okay.
And we saw house values increase substantially, but now they're
starting to come back down.
So, but that interest rate is really killing us.
So for a lot of those naysayers out there that have been preaching, you
know, the world's gonna crash in 2021.
And then in 2022, and now you're gonna start seeing all these headlines saying,
well, we're on our final leg of the crash.
Well, how long is it gonna take?
If I make a prediction, I'm not, you know, I, I want my, let's say
I want my stock analyst to tell me what stocks I should invest in now.
Not one's.
You know what's gonna happen 2, 3, 4, 5 years down the
road, especially with housing.
So I'm gonna put some of this in the context because if you would've
bought a year ago where those numbers would've been while everybody's
preaching, the world's ending, where you would've been then versus
where you are now if you didn't buy.
But again, I'm not saying you have to buy, I just wanna show you, if you're on
that bandwagon of saying, you know, the world's gonna end and everything else.
What you missed out on.
Okay, so that's that first.
But yeah, the house values are starting to ease a little bit,
but you're not seeing a crash.
Another part of the market is people are saying, and you see these headlines,
let's look at the headlines here.
Is foreclosures rose over 50% from 2021 to 2022.
Are you kidding me?
Well, you when you have a foreclosure moratorium on and you
can't foreclose any on anybody.
It really makes it tough to use previous numbers to kind of
explain current market numbers.
Do you get what I'm saying?
So if basically you went from one to two, that's a 100% increase.
Okay.
See, I hope you get what I'm saying.
But you can see right here, October foreclosure activities were about
59% of pre pandemic numbers.
So we're at 50, 59% of where foreclosures are normally in a normal market.
Okay, so I can't really say that foreclosures are running rampant if we're
basically at half where we were in the normal environment that we usually see.
Let's get over to the economic calendar.
So we're gonna put some of this in the context.
Now.
You can see why people are getting a little skirmish right now.
If you're not already, look at the, just what we have in the data that's
provided for us yesterday and today.
So, so far we had the consumer confidence level.
It was 102 previously.
Now it's a hundred 0.2.
Don't really know what that means, but it's not good guys.
Confidence is eroding.
Then you go over here, the ADP employment numbers.
Now remember Federal Reserve said we're out to really put pain in the market.
We're here to really crush housing and to increase the unemployment rate.
Okay, so they want.
Unemployment because why?
Well, people are spending way too much money driving up the cost of goods.
I still blame it on the Federal Reserve and the federal government prefer
sending out so much in stimulus checks, and now it's coming to haunt us.
But let's look at some of the numbers that's showing up right now.
We have the employment numbers, they're crashing.
There was 239,000 jobs created at the last report.
There were supposed to be 200.
This time it was half of, you know, just a little bit less than half
of where we were just last month.
So it's taking a chunk outta the employment market.
GDP, I'm not even gonna look at that because it doesn't seem like really
anybody cares about the GDP today.
You got the Jolt Index now.
This is the number of job openings.
Okay.
There's still 10.3 million job openings.
So my concern is, or I guess my question is, how is the Federal Reserve
actually trying to increase the jobs numbers or the unemployment rate?
When we have over 10 million job openings and there's still a disconnect on there.
On my way to work, every day I go past manufacturers.
Every one of 'em I can honestly say has a help wanted sign.
Okay?
So there's a huge disconnect in the working part of this equation.
And then we go to crude oil.
Look at crude oil.
We are negative.
12 million barrels.
We were negative 3 million.
Previous reading, we were supposed to be negative 2 million.
Now we're about six times that amount.
So you're starting to see all of this starting to implode.
So the expectations now, if you're not saying that we are in a recession
now, well, almost every economist is predicting it in Q1 or Q2 of 2023.
So what normally happens during a recession?
Well, the last five recessions that we had, we saw 1.8% reduction
in mortgage rates on average over the last five recessions.
And every five, all the last five recessions that we had.
Every one of them came with a reduction in mortgage rates.
So just using that for context.
So let's get over to where mortgage rates are today.
Here's where they are.
Or basically, here's where they started the day.
You can see these are the top six products people use when they're
buying or refinancing their home.
These are the top products right here.
These are not my rates.
These are not any individual banks rates.
What these are, are the national averages.
So what Mortgage News Daily does is they survey mortgage lenders
all over the country and said, you know, if you had a client with this
criteria, what would your rate be?
So this is the national average.
Again, it's not my rate.
What rate can you get?
Well, I'm gonna explain to you at the end of the video how you can reach out
to us even if you have a quote right now and we can check that quote against 85 of
the country's largest banks and lenders, cuz that's what we can help you with.
Trying to find that best rate, the lowest fees, and make sure
you're in the right program.
That's our goal here.
So the next thing of the puzzle is what we monitor also is what's
going on or what's the projection of where mortgage rates are gonna go.
So to do that, what we do is we follow the MBS market.
It's the Mortgage Backed Securities market that trades on Wall Street.
This is a bond that trades on Wall Street.
What you're seeing on your screen right now is the price of the bond.
Okay, so how this works is if the price of the bond goes down, okay,
that you're seeing on your screen, that means rates are going up.
There's an inverse or a flip flop effect with the price
of a bond in mortgage rates.
So this is telling me mortgage rates are gonna creep up just a
little bit, not a lot, but probably tick up, maybe .02/ .05 ticks.
So if we go back to the nifty rate sheet.
You're gonna probably see rates at about 6.7%.
It's still a far cry from where we were.
We were at 7.37 not too long ago.
So I'll say seven and three eights, and now we're basically 6.75.
So we're about half a percent or more off of where the rates were at the peak.
So what do you do if you're out there and you're looking to maybe get
qualified for a mortgage or to find out what kind of mortgage you qualify for?
Well, that's a great thought there, but let's hold on.
Let's go back and say, well, remember I kept watching all those videos and
people kept saying, don't buy, don't buy.
The market's gonna crash, everything's gonna crash, and everything is bad.
Okay, let's just, just amuse me on this one.
Let's go back in time and say, well, if I would've bought my house then.
What's the difference of where it would've been then and now?
So let's just go back to last year a this time.
Let's say I'm gonna buy my first house and it is 250,000 is the purchase price.
I'm gonna put down three and a half percent, and the rate
at that time was 3000 or 3%.
If you scroll down through here, I'm not gonna take my head outta the
equation cuz I want you to see this.
So we're gonna round that number to your payment will be 1600 bucks.
Now what I want you to understand on this is once you close on that, Your payment's
probably never gonna change, okay?
Unless you escrow your taxes and insurance is a part of your
payment, which you can elect to do.
So as your taxes go up and down, that'll affect your payment.
As your homeowner's insurance goes up and down, that'll also affect your payment.
So, but if you look at this just on the principal and interest side of the
equation, your payment will never change.
Okay, so let's say in this case, this includes taxes and everything else,
but let's take that outta the equation.
Hold on, let me go back through.
Advanced settings.
We go to advanced settings, and you can do this.
This is on my website that we're doing this right now.
Just go to TheRateUpdate.com and click over to calculators.
So your payment would've been principal and interest $1,228.
Okay, so now house prices have gone up, let's say 10% cuz they've gone up 10%.
So now this new house value is 275.
Okay, you got some appreciation there, raising that payment up, but
let's see now, today's rate is 6.625.
Now the payment is 1931, so just for waiting.
Your payment went up seven to $800 a month.
Okay?
Think of that month after month, year after year.
How much that adjustment's gonna make.
Now, let's say on the flip side of this, you rented, okay?
Your rent rents are going up on the pace right now, currently of about 18% a year.
That's gonna taper off to about, probably back to five or 6%, maybe 4%, but again,
over the last two years, let's say you didn't buy last year, or you were
looking to buy last year and you didn't, your rent's probably gonna go up six,
seven, 8% this year, another 5% next year, another 5% the following year.
So I hope you get it.
So please don't go off the advice of the YouTubers or mainstream media.
Please make sure you do your own homework before you buy your first home.
So how do we help?
What do I do?
Well, I'm a mortgage advisor, I'll put it that way.
I work for a bank.
We are federally chartered and we are also set up with 85 of the country's largest
banks and lenders mortgage companies.
So what we do here is you can come to our website and it's TheRateUpdate.com.
It's right here.
We offer a free service, one of one of several that we do.
One, if you wanna apply for a loan and get pre-approved today to buy your first
house, maybe in January, February, March, or at least start kicking the tires.
All you need to do is give us a call.
Can't see that there, but it's (844) 775-5626, and all this information
will be down below in the description.
You can apply today.
But what I'd like you to do is either call or schedule an appointment.
Okay?
You're just gonna click book a meeting that you'll have your one-on-one
consultation with me or one of my mortgage advisors to kind of answer
all the questions that you have.
And again, don't forget our live video tonight.
We do these every Wednesday.
We have Q and A session live, Kyle, and myself.
Check out Kyle, he's on Kyle Seagraves, he's on Win the House You Love.
You can check that out.
But another way we do this is if you're in the process of a mortgage
right now, and you called a couple places and you felt comfortable with
this one place or maybe didn't feel comfortable, but they were able to
help you and you start moving through.
Now, rates might have went down a little bit, you can see on the mortgage rates.
So we just went over there down about half a percent or, three quarters of
percent where we were, let's say you're locked in and you can't do anything.
Okay, so what do you do?
How do you find out if you got the best package deal.
Well, the best thing to do is use our free service.
All you have to do is click right here.
You're gonna click this loan estimate tab.
What this is it's gonna open up this tab right here.
What you're gonna do is if you get a loan estimate, now what a loan estimate
is, is if you applied with a mortgage company or a lender or bank or whatever.
After three days, they have to disposition your loan.
And they either have to turn you down or they have to approve you and move forward.
If they approve you and move forward, they're gonna send you a loan estimate.
It's in your package, it's gonna go over the rate and all the fees.
Well, instead of getting completely confused with it, all you need
you to do is go to this website.
Click that and fill out all this information.
There's not a lot here.
Basically, it's pertinent information on how you want us to get back to
you, but you're gonna drag and drop your loan estimates right into here.
What we're gonna do, give us a couple hours to review that, and we're gonna
respond to you to see if we can get you a better rate and better terms.
What we're gonna, what we need from you is, You gotta let us know how
you want us to reach out to you.
So my name is Dan Frio.
I do The Rate Update every day.
Please, if you like our videos, don't forget to give us a thumbs up.
Subscribe down below, hit the bell every time I post video, you get alert.
And don't forget to join us tonight at five o'clock Central
Time Live on this channel.
You can ask any questions that you have in regards to buying your first property.
So God bless guys.
Thanks so much for watching.
I'll see you later this afternoon.
Bye-bye.