I JUST THINK TODAY IT DOESN'T
FEEL AS SEXY.
DAVID: WE'VE GOT A TECH EXPERT
ON THE LINE WITH US, DAVE MANEY,
FAMILIAR TO A LOT OF FOX
BUSINESS VIEWERS.
DAVE THANKS FOR MAKING YOURSELF
AVAILABLE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THE NEWS?
>> I THINK IT'S IN SOME WAYS
LESS SURPRISING THAN ITS MADE
OUT TO BE.
INNOVATION AND THE TECHNOLOGY
WORLD TENDS TO BE A STEP
FUNCTION, NOT A CONTINUOUS ONE
AND SO YOU GET, THAT MEANS IT
HAPPENS AND FITS AND STARTS, AND
NOWHERE HAS THAT BEEN MORE
APPARENT OVER THE LAST DECADE
THAN IN THE MOBILE PHONE
BUSINESS, IN THE SMARTPHONE
BUSINESS.
I MEAN, I WAS JUST TALKING WITH
THE OTHER DAY WITH SOMEBODY
ABOUT THE GREAT FALL OF
BLACKBERRY RIGHT?
BECAUSE THEY MISSED OUT ON ONE
OF THOSE STEP FUNCTION
INNOVATIONS AND AWAY THEY WENT
AND THEY'VE REACHED A POINT NOW
AS WE DO IN ALMOST ALL TECH
PRODUCTS WHERE THE STEP
FUNCTIONS ARE EITHER SMALLER OR
THE STEPS ARE VIRTUALLY NON-
EXISTENT AND SO THE IDEA
THAT THERE'S A SEXY PRODUCT
TOMORROW, OR SIX MONTHS FROM NOW
THAT'S GOING TO AGAIN KIND OF
INJECT TURBO POWER INTO THE
COMPANY'S SALES IS OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC AT BEST.
DAVID: LET ME JUST ASK ARE YOU
SUGGESTING THAT WHAT HAPPENED TO
BLACKBERRY COULD HAPPEN TO APPLE
>> DO I THINK IT COULD HAPPEN?
SURE I THINK IT COULD HAPPEN.
I THINK THEY'RE A LOT BETTER
PREPARED AND MORE DIVERSIFIED
ACROSS THE SPECTRUM, BUT THE
NATURE OF THE TECHNOLOGY
BUSINESS, YOU KNOW, DISRUPTION
DOESN'T JUST HAPPEN TO PEOPLE
OUTSIDE THE TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY.
IT HAPPENS TO COMPANIES INSIDE
OF IT AS WELL.
IT'S A HIGH-RISK HIGH REWARD
BUSINESS.
>> SO DAVID, IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
PEOPLE EITHER OWN SAMSUNG PHONES
OR APPLE AND MOST PEOPLE THINK
IT'S JUST TOO MUCH TROUBLE TO
SWITCH, WHICH KIND OF GUARANTEES
THEY'VE GOT A MARKET FOR
EVENTUAL UPGRADES BUT IT SEEMS
LIKE THAT UPGRADE GETS ELONGATED
UNLESS THEY CAN REALLY BRING NEW
HOT STUFF ON TO EACH NEW
ADDITION AND THAT I THINK THAT
SEEMS TO ME TO BE WHAT'S
HAPPENING.
IS THAT YOUR VIEW OR AM I WRONG?
>> NO, NO, I THINK YOU'RE
TOTALLY RIGHT AND BY THE WAY I'M
TALKING TO YOU ON AN LG PHONE,
BECAUSE TO ME, IT HAS LARGELY
BEGUN WITH THE COMMODITIES SO
I'M LINKED INTO THE GOOGLE
ECHOSYSTEM THROUGH ANDROID AND
ALL OF THE PARTS OF IT, BUT YES,
SO APPLE HAS SOME KIND OF GRIP
ON ITS CUSTOMERS BUT THE IDEA
THAT A, THE IDEA THAT YOU CAN'T
UPEND THE PLATFORM AT ALL GO
TALK TO MY FRIEND AT BLACKBERRY
AND ASK HIM WHAT HE THINKS OR
USED TO BE AT BLACKBERRY AND B,
YOU KNOW, EXACTLY WHAT YOU SAID.
IS IT POWERFUL ENOUGH TO KEEP ME
ON THE TREADMILL OF UPGRADE AT
THE PACE THAT THE COMPANY AND
THE STREET WOULD LIKE IT TO BE
AND THE ANSWER IS PROBABLY NOT.
>> BUT DAVID ISN'T ALL OF THIS
ABOUT STEVE JOBS?
I MEAN YOU TALK ABOUT THE
DISRUPTION AND INNOVATION AND I
COMPLETELY AGREE WITH YOU BUT
THERE'S ONLY ONE STEVE JOBS.
MAYBE ELON MUSK MIGHT BE COMPAR
ABLE TO THAT MAYBE
TOMORROW AS EDISON BUT YOU DON'T
HAVE A GUY LIKE STEVE JOBS
CREATING SOMETHING COMPLETELY
NEW LIKE IPAD THAT EVERYBODY HAS
TO HAVE AND TIM COOK WHILE A
BRILLIANT CEO RUNNING THE MOST
PROFITABLE COMPANY IN THE
HISTORY OF THE WORLD THERE'S NOT
AN INNOVATOR THERE LIKE STEVE
JOBS SO THIS SEEMS TO BE A
PREDICATED OUTCOME THAT
EVENTUALLY THIS HAS TO SLOW.
>> THERE'S AN ELEMENT OF TRUTH
TO THAT AND THE OTHER PIECE
THAT'S AN IMPORTANT PART OF THAT
IS WHAT WAS HAPPENING TO THE
TECHNOLOGY CYCLES BROADLY
UNDERNEATH THAT BECAUSE AS YOU
GUYS KNOW THERE WAS AN ERA WHERE
STEVE JOBS WAS NO GOOD FOR APPLE
RIGHT?
WHERE HE GOT FIRED BY THE BOARD,
SO THERE WERE MOMENTS WHERE THE
TECHNOLOGY SOUP, WHERE THE SOUP
OF TECHNOLOGY WAS READY FOR THE
GOD OF JOBS TO COME IN AND SORT
OF KNIT THE ELEMENTS TOGETHER,
AND THEN THERE WERE OTHER MOMENT
S WHEN CONDITIONS WEREN'T
RIGHT AND SO I'M GUESSING RIGHT
NOW IN THE SMARTPHONE WORLD,
IT'S NOT NOW.
NOT NOW IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
>> DAVE IT'S ROBERT THANKS FOR
COMING ON ON SHORT NOTICE.
WE'RE DOWN, YOU KNOW, 50% OVER
THE LAST YEAR ON THIS STOCK.
IS THAT, DO YOU FEEL IT'S A BUY
TIME HERE EVEN THOUGH INNOVATION
MAY BE SLOW JUST BECAUSE THEIR
REVENUES ARE STILL SO
SIGNIFICANT?
>> YOU KNOW, I'M NOT NEARLY AS
SMART AS ANY OF YOU GUYS ABOUT
THE MARKET ITSELF ABOUT THE
STOCKS AND HOW THE STREET VIEWS
THE COMPANIES.
HERE IS WHAT I WOULD TELL YOU.
THE LONG TERM PICTURE IS, YOU
KNOW, THIS IS A GIGANTIC
REENGINEERING OF OUR ENTIRE
ECONOMY POWERED BY DEVICES, AND
INFORMATION THAT FLOWS OUT OF
DEVICES LIKE APPLE MAKES AND THE
WAY THEY PARTICIPATE IN IT.
SO, YOU KNOW, ARE WE, HAVE WE
REACHED THE END OF THAT
INNOVATION?
NO I THINK WE'RE 20% ALONG THAT
WAY BUT WHO THE WINNERS AND
LOSERS ARE IN AND AMONG IT AND
THAT'S WHY THEY PAY YOU GUYS THE
BIG BUCKS.
DAVID: BY THE WAY, DAVE YOU
MENTIONED THE TIME WHEN STEVE
JOBS LOST HIS JOB.
OF COURSE HE CAME ROARING BACK
AFTER THE PEOPLE THAT TRIED TO
FOLLOW HIM COULD NOT MATCH HIS
SUCCESS, AND THEN APPLE TOOK OFF
, SO I'M JUST I DON'T WANT TO
WISH ANY HARM ON TIM COOK BUT DO
YOU SUPPOSE THAT IF THINGS
CONTINUE TO GO DOWN AS THEY LOOK
LIKE THEY'RE GOING DOWN NOW,
SOMEBODY COULD SAY MAYBE WE NEED
SOME NEW EYES AND NEW INNOVATION
AT THE TOP OF APPLE?
>> YEAH, I MEAN IT ALWAYS TAKES
THEM A COUPLE YEARS TOO LONG TO
FIGURE THAT OUT, RIGHT?
THE GUY THEY HIRED AS YOU GUYS
ALL REMEMBER, JOHN SCULLY, IF
I'M NOT MISTAKING WAS A PEPSICO
MARKETING EXECUTIVE AND
THAT WAS THE SKILLSET THAT 10
SMART BOARD MEMBERS DECIDED THEY
NEEDED AND WILL THEY GET IT
RIGHT?
NOT VERY LIKELY.
I MEAN, THE NUMBER OF COMPANIES,
HERE IS THE INTERESTING THING
ABOUT APPLE.
THE NUMBER OF COMPANIES THAT ARE
PURPOSE-BUILT FOR ONE
TECHNOLOGICAL OR ECONOMIC ERA
THAT SURVIVE AND DOMINATE THE
NEXT ONE IS SO SMALL, APPLE IS
AN EXAMPLE THAT CAME IN DURING
THE, YOU KNOW, THE FIRST PC ERA
AND DOMINATED AND THEN FELL
APART AND THEN CAME BACK IN
A LATER YEAR.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE CHANCES OF
THAT HAPPENING A THIRD TIME
PROBABLY NOT SO GREAT.
>> DAVE, DO YOU SEE ANY NEW
APPLES ON THE HORIZON?
THIS IS THE AREA YOU'RE A LOT
CLOSER THAN WE ARE.
ANY UP AND COMERS THAT WE SHOULD
BE THINKING ABOUT?
>> WELL DO YOU KNOW WHAT?
I THINK THAT THE CUTTING EDGE OF
INFORMATION IS NOT AT THE MOMENT
, YOU KNOW, DEVICE-BASED
RIGHT?
AROUND ITS APPLICATION-BASED BUT
THE ANSWER IS IS THERE A NEXT
PLATFORM.
I THINK THAT IT'S MUCH MORE
LIKELY THAT IT GETS SORT OF TORN
APART BY THE ANKLE BITERS OF THE
LG'S OF THE WORLD WHO ARE
PRODUCING, THEY'RE NOT REALLY
INNOVATING BUT THEY'RE PRODUCING
LESS EXPENSIVE, INTERESTING GOOD
STUFF.
I THINK IT'S DEATH BY A THOUSAND
CUTS.
DAVID: DAVE MANEY, GREAT TO
TALK TO YOU THANKS SO MUCH FOR