Hey, everybody.
ABC10 Meteorologist Brendan Mid.
Jeff here with another drought update.
We're going to actually
take a look at it yet again,
Improved drought monitor and we'll also talk
about 100 degree heat and warmer fall days.
Yes, we're starting that transition
out of summer and in towards fall.
Now that doesn't mean we're
done with the heat yet,
but on average it is signaling an end.
All right, here's what the Drought Monitor
looked like as of August 17th, 2023.
Here's what it looks like now,
September 10th, 2023.
And notice Southern
California is much improved.
There's hardly anything down there at all.
In fact, what is down there
isn't even technically drought.
It would be abnormally dry conditions.
The only drought that still exists
on the map is all the way up here,
right there on the very,
very northwestern corner of
the state of California.
That would be .22% of the state,
if you're curious.
The rest of the color on the map is yellow.
That is that abnormally dry color,
either recovery from drought or entering.
In our case mostly recovering,
especially down here in Southern California.
So again,
only .22% of the state of California is
officially in drought and that is the
best the map has looked since January 21st,
2020 when the drought score was 4.
This week the drought score is 7,
so there you go.
Much improved scenario in the maps
actually look fairly similar with most
of the abnormally dry conditions in
the northern part of the state both
this week and January 21st of 2020.
As well take a look at our reservoirs because
we're still holding a lot of water in there.
Just updated 76% Shasta is at capacity,
79% Oroville of capacity there
and Folsom 73% of capacity.
So both Shasta,
Oroville and Folsom as well.
All three of these reservoirs,
these big reservoirs,
big water players for our region and our
state are all just about at 3/4 capacity,
which is great news because now honestly,
we're starting to see the end
of that dry season and we will
start to enter the wet season.
Typically,
on average,
typically in October is when we can
start kind of taking a peek and see if
we'll get one of those first first storms,
some of that first rain,
that measurable rain,
that good soaking rain doesn't
always happen in October,
but it's typically that first month
where we can kind of look ahead there.
But before we look ahead,
let's look back at the month of
September that we've had so far.
And most of it in downtown Sacramento
has been at or below average
80 degrees to start the month.
Then we had a day in the middle 70s,
which was great,
75 degrees on that Saturday felt really nice.
And then we've been at or below average
for most of the day since then.
The exception being both the
8th and the 9th when
we were above average,
but still only in those middle 90s.
And that's over the next 10 days about as
warm as I've got for the Sacramento area.
You really not expecting us to get into
those triple digits or even anywhere close
really those middle 90s is about as warm
as I've got for the foreseeable future,
which is kind of what you
would expect to be honest.
Because September,
like I mentioned a minute ago,
that month of transition, right,
the average high downtown Sacramento
to start the month is 92 degrees.
By the end of the month that average
high temperature is 85 degrees.
The low doesn't move quite as much,
but the average low by the end of
the month does drop to 57 degrees.
So we are moving quite significantly.
The month of August,
only the average high,
only dropped by like a couple of
degrees from the start to the finish.
But certainly September,
we see a big change there.
And then also our average rainfall
for the month of September
in downtown is 1/10 and 1/2.
So that is pretty significantly more,
to be honest,
if we're talking about it,
than August, which is only three
hundredths of an inch of rain.
And then when we look at July, we,
we don't even get rain in July on average.
We just don't see rain in correction.
That would be two hundredths of an
inch of rain for the month of August,
3 hundredths is what we got last month.
So we did get above average rainfall for
the month of August that we just had barely.
And in September, we're not there yet,
but typically we do start to see a
little bit more rain in September.
And then in October,
we see almost an inch of rain
on average in Sacramento.
By December, that numbers about 3 1/2 inches.
January, the number is over 3 1/2 inches.
So like I said,
we're not in the rainy season yet,
but we can kind of start to
see the beginning of it,
especially when we get to October,
we kind of lookout and see if
there's any storms coming.
So obviously our wettest months,
December, January,
February and then March would
be the 4th wettest there.
So yeah,
it's not that far away,
all things considered,
something else that we're going
to get to as well on October 1st,
So just a few weeks away,
October 1st is the start of the new
water year for the state of California.
So again,
coming up on some milestones
here in the water world,
but let's talk 100 degree days
real fast because we're not
quite done with summer just yet.
The year so far has seen 2300 degree
plus days in downtown Sacramento.
That actually is the fewest
since 2019 when we had 22 days.
And on average we see 24 days with a
high temperature of at least 100 degrees.
Looking back,
we can go really far back on record
in Sacramento.
We've got good weather keeping goes
back into the 1800s, only 1907.
That's the only year on record in
Sacramento that has not had 100 degree day.
The only year in more than 100
years of record keeping only
1907 had no 100 degree days.
This year we're right on
pace to be at average,
maybe even below average because
frankly when we talk about our
average last 100 degree day,
that's September 15th.
So we're coming up on that and I don't
have any triple digit days in the forecast.
So if the average holds and we
don't see any more 100 degree days,
we would actually clock in with the below
average number of triple digit days
in downtown Sacramento for the year 2023.
Obviously the year still
has some months left.
We can get these heat spikes,
we can get these very anomalously hot days,
but the triple digit days typically
come to an end around September 15th.
Our average last 105 degree day
was August 13th, September 15th.
The last triple digit day last 95 degree day,
September 28th.
Also coming up on that at the
end of the month,
our last 90 degree day,
October 7th in our last 85 degree day
on average is in the middle of October.
So these summer temperatures
are coming to an end on average.
We really don't see a lot of heat after
the middle of October in Sacramento.
We can get some,
but we typically don't our average first day.
So first fall day is what I should
say because obviously we can get
these temperatures in January,
February, March.
But our average first fall day with
a high temperature of 75 degrees
or cooler is September 27th.
At the end of the month average first
day with a high temp of 70 degrees or cooler.
October 12th, October 26th,
that first 65 degree day start.
In November, that first sixty degree day.
And around Thanksgiving is that first
55 degree day in downtown Sacramento.
This is from 1990 to 2022,
so roughly the last 30 years these
averages are so it gives you a better
picture than taking the whole of
the averages all the way back into
the 1800s which that climate is
no longer representative of what
we are living in today.
So over the last 30 years,
that's a pretty good representation
of what we experience.
And look at that these fall temperatures,
if you're done with the heat,
if you're ready for some cooler weather,
if you're ready for the 70s,
I will admit I am at 75 degree days,
like the most perfect day you can have.
In my opinion,
if you're ready for these temperatures,
they are not all that far away.
They are in fact just around the corner.
But as we talk about fall,
we also have to talk about how
fall is changing.
So over the last 50 years that
would be since 1970.
This chart shows us which
areas have warmed the
most in the month of fall.
And pretty remarkably,
the entire state of Colorado,
most of Wyoming, southern part of Montana,
far West Texas into eastern New Mexico,
and then right along the border with Mexico,
down in Arizona and then also parts
of Southern California as well have
seen significant fall warming.
And that also includes New
England up here for Maine,
parts of Vermont, New Hampshire,
Massachusetts and Rhode Island,
as well as a little bit of mass or a
little bit of Minnesota, excuse me, there.
And so as we look at the legend,
this tells us 3 1/2 to 4 degrees warmer on
average are fall days in those locations.
In other parts of California,
the warming is not quite as extreme.
On average,
that number is between about two and three
degrees Fahrenheit warmer than 1970.
So things are warming up.
Things are changing.
We'll talk specifically
about Sacramento here,
which is one of the regions that
has not seen a lot of fall warming,
but we still see some.
On average,
we're 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit
warmer during the fall than 1970.
This isn't our high temperature,
it's not our low temperature,
it's the average temperature.
So it takes into account both.
Now we can say that certainly
in the summertime,
nights are warming faster than days.
In the fall, it's about the same.
We're seeing that warming happen.
So the average temperature,
which was about 63 degrees in 1970 during
the fall is now about 64 degrees as of 2022.
And so that's that warming that
we are seeing.
We're also adding on about 8 above
average days during the fall.
That's about a week.
So on average,
we're experiencing another week
of summer during those fall days
or during that fall season,
right at eight additional days.
In 1970, that number was about 40.
Now we're about 50 additional
warmer fall days,
but it's been more pronounced in
other areas like San Francisco.
This is the chart for San Francisco.
Look at this on average about another
month of summer like weather of above
average temperature during the fall
plus 26 days compared to 50 years ago.
50 years ago in San Francisco there
were about 20 above average days.
Look at that steep line all the way to 2022.
That number now close to 50 days of
above average fall temperatures.
So we're adding on more warmth
as we go into fall.
And so typically,
you would expect this to be really the
month of September which is heating up,
that transition period is longer or
it's getting pushed back entirely as is
the case in places like San Francisco.
And so that's the focus of the
story that we're about to hear is
we're going to talk about fall.
We're going to talk about how
things are changing,
how things are warming and
the impacts that has.
Here's Lauren Casey with Climate Central.
Fall warming is widespread across
the contiguous United States.
Lauren Casey, a meteorologist
with Climate Central,
says that climate change is
altering our fall season.
We looked at 241 locations across the US,
and since it's nineteen,
72132 of those locations have
seen an increase on average,
of their fall temperature
of 2.4 degrees. The greatest fall
warming we observed is in the
Southwest region of the United States,
and some of those locations had
very large increases in their
average fall temperatures.
For example, Reno NV 7 and
.7 degrees in California.
Much of the state is seeing warmer fall
seasons by about two degrees with an
increasing number of above average days.
Some of their sites across California had
some of the biggest increases in Fresno 31,
more above average fall days,
a month's worth.
Sacramento's warming is not as dramatic,
but we are on average experiencing
fall temperatures that are 1.2
degrees warmer than 50 years ago.
We're also seeing eight additional fall
days with above average temperatures.
It might not sound like much,
but that still brings significant impacts.
One of those being kind of opens that
window even wider to heat related illnesses.
So we face that in the summer with the heat,
but now we're heating up fall as well.
Also you talk about economically,
we're increasing that cooling demand into
the fall season as well and we know that
can have a big impact on your pocketbook,
your energy bills increasing also a
longer and more intense allergy season.
So you're sniffling and sneezing
well into the fall.
Also you're extending the wildfire season.
So there's that threat and then on
top of that the potential for smoky
skies because of the wildfires
and the air quality impacts that has.
So there's really cascading effects
to this fall warming.