what's up guys today i'm gonna be answering the question whether you should wait to buy
a tesla before battery investor day or not so before we get started like the video down
below and subscribe if you haven't already i'll greatly appreciate it alright let's go
so battery investor day is right around the corner it's just under two months away and i
really wanted to wait before making this video right after the q2 earnings call because we'll
have a better idea of what can be expected on battery day now before we thought that battery day
was gonna be some this revolutionary thing maybe they're gonna have like a doubling in capacity
or something extraordinary and what i think is going to happen it's going to be more related to
manufacturing and the manufacturing side of the cells tesla is the single biggest consumer of
batteries and currently they don't really produce much of their cells they buy them from panasonic
or they're actually gonna start to buy them from catl in china so what this value day is
supposed to represent is basically an advancement in cell chemistry and ideally of course we'll see
something that is fairly new but i think more of it it's going to be due to the manufacturing side
and how they can bring the cost down to well below 100 per kilowatt hours for the pack we usually see
numbers about this for the cells and obviously you know the cells are a really main component
the entire battery pack is made of cells but the thing is assembling a battery pack is quite a bit
more expensive than just assembling the cells that is why packs usually cost more per kilowatt hour
than if you just bought out the sales for obvious reasons more manufacturing costs more to do so
so what we can expect is for them for tesla to actually bring the cost below 100 per kilowatt
hour and that might not happen right away that could happen eventually but for the entire pack
and likely we're probably going to see that happen within the next year or two i don't think it's
going to be any longer than that they're already at about 130 or something per kilowatt hour which
is already really cheap relative to most of the other manufacturers and the battery producers out
there so that's already a great step forward so now the reason why i wanted to talk about
if you should wait to buy tesla is because maybe tesla might have a brand new battery pack that
no one's ever heard of and it's gonna go and say the new model 3 or something like that and
you really don't want to buy a model 3 right now and then just have another brand new model 3 in 2
months later have a better battery pack who knows maybe the new model 3 is probably the same price
or just a couple thousand dollars more expensive but it having a 400 mile range like you would be
kind of pissed if that happened like obviously if the range only went up by like 10 miles you
wouldn't be as pissed or anything but if it went up by like 80 miles that's 80 miles of extra range
that is a substantial number and you would gladly pay for it especially if it only costs a couple
thousand dollars more so based on that here's what i think that's actually gonna happen on battery
day i feel like they're not really gonna have this revolutionary style battery obviously they're
gonna show us some really cool things i'm not doubting that as a very innovative company they're
gonna show some amazing things that we've probably never heard of and honestly for the people who
actually understand whatever is going to happen they're probably going to be very astonished and
plus elon said there's a lot to actually see so that mainly relates to manufacturing rather than
the fact that it's just doubling in capacity using the same form factor or the same in the same size
really now another reason why i bring this question up is because the roadster the cyber
truck and the tesla semi just look at the range figures of those vehicles they're insane 500 plus
miles of range or whatever something really crazy for the roadster 600 plus miles over a thousand
kilometers of range there's almost no way to do that with current battery technology in a very
efficient way it's going to be very expensive and of course the cyber truck isn't really that
expensive it's about the same price as the base model 3 so they recently just had a price drop so
that that can make up for it but that is not that much more expensive now in the case of a roadster
you want a sports car and you want to build it as a sports car you want to pretty much put the best
things you can put in there make it like literally your flagship vehicle and what i would suggest
is if you're on the fence of buying a performance model s and you want maybe better performance for
obviously more money but better performance nonetheless then i would suggest you wait for the
plaid powertrain because in the plaid powertrain they're gonna have some better battery tech most
likely or at least better motors and inverters and whatever stuff just to get you more acceleration
better timing obviously range can take a hit but they'll have a brand new drivetrain so
unless you're in the market for that type of vehicle i see no reason why you should
actually wait to buy a tesla buy one tomorrow i don't really care shameless plug my referral
code is always linked in the description so if you can you can use that otherwise
uh don't really care but you you know we'll both get 1 000 free super charging miles something
like that i think that's 1600 kilometers of free supercharging that's a lot so basing it off of the
q2 earnings call we just had i don't think we're gonna be as shocked as we've maybe were hoping for
like i was hoping for like a doubling in battery capacity in the same size and weight while also
reducing the cost by half and increasing the range by 2 which is basically a 2 2 2 x increase
in range essentially that's like an 8x increase in range which would literally take the standard
range model 3 like 1000 miles or something crazy like that which of course it's like
magical but even a doubling in capacity would have that effect now am i saying are they never going
to reach our battery's never going to reach it no batteries are actually very close to break the
barrier of about a hundred dollars per kilowatt hour in the pack and we're gonna see that very
soon and i believe we're probably gonna see that this year when they're manufacturing and whatever
they're gonna showcase and everything because tesla is getting in the cell business now and
obviously in the q2 earnings call they've actually wanted many many people to actually work for tesla
and actually call up nickel mining companies for them to actually set up a more sustainable
carbon neutral or carbon negative way of actually mining the nickel just so they can use that nickel
for their battery pack so of course they're thinking about cell production right now and
obviously they want to do it in mass quantities and that's another reason why they're building the
gigafactory in texas which will have the largest land area of any of the gigafactory so far 2100
acres that's a lot of land and a lot of capability to expand in the future now with battery capacity
increasing so much in a relatively short period of time what we're going to see is mass production of
more cells and what that's going to do is actually bring down the cost substantially over time as
we've seen just 10 years ago a battery pack for a model s would be very expensive it was 85 kilowatt
hours and it was around fifty thousand dollars or something like that one thousand dollars per
kilowatt hour so so just ten years ago batteries costed around one thousand dollars per kilowatt
hour that means the model s we have today with a 100 kilowatt hour battery pack would have costed
over 100 000 that is more expensive than the model s we have today which starts at about 70 or 80 000
and now in 2020 maybe in 2021 we're gonna see batteries costing about a hundred dollars per
kilowatt hour given that price has decreased so much in the past decade we can assume that price
is obviously going to decrease even further and right now we're basically on a more like
parity level where batteries are getting so cheap to the extent that they're basically gonna replace
the gas engine within the next year or two like literally displace the cost of the gas engine
which has actually never happened before and that was really what people call the tipping
point and i feel like we are here we were here for a while now and i just think it's all up
to the battery manufacturers who can't get the price low enough and obviously in the future
we're going to see prices drop even further and they're going to get even cheaper than a
gas engine you can probably just pick up a 2 300 mile range car for like a battery pack for about 3
000 and that's going to be a real game changer right now the model 3 battery pack
cost about 10 000 i believe some somewhere around the ballpark and with more efficiencies especially
with mass production of that same battery pack and the cost efficiencies associated with it
their costs can come down to such low levels like below five thousand dollars where it'll basically
be a no-brainer to go for say a model three versus any other competitor for tesla or even a gas car
and we're seeing this today people are doing it today and it's just amazing so the the answer
to the question if you should wait or not is i've said it before i'll say it again it's no
you should not wait to buy one now obviously if there's a new model coming out literally
in the next couple months sure which is a plaid powertrain unless you're gonna go for that one
i would wait but if you're not and you're like the average person who's probably gonna go for like a
model 3 or model y which isn't really the average person they're still generally a bit more well off
than the average person but if you are going to go for the model 3 model y and are considering
it i would not hesitate to wait the only real disadvantage you're going to have is that you
might not get one slight new feature and it could be a big feature could be a small feature we don't
know as tesla improves their products pretty much in an evolutionary standpoint they don't release
products as in years they don't have a 2020 model three they don't have a 2019 model three
it's just whichever week your model 3 is made in that's the best model 3 you could have ever gotten
for that time period until it got updated again and honestly right now teslas are literally one of
the best vehicles on the market today so i would not hesitate because you are getting pretty much
the best vehicle today and even if you lose out on some minor feature overall i think it's not really
that big of a deal the model 3 or really any other tesla is just so ahead of the competition that it
just doesn't matter what you get you can buy a 2018 2017 model 3 and it'll be much better than
the competition coming out today so that's just to give you some perspective so thank you for
watching hope you enjoyed this one and i hope you got something out of it and i want to know what
you guys think what are you guys expecting for battery day should i make another video
what are my predictions for battery day you guys want to see that i don't know let me
know in the comments down below and i'll talk to you there all right until next time peace
you