Translator: Moe Shoji Reviewer: Denise RQ
Good morning.
Thank you so much for inviting me to TEDxTokyo today.
I am Yoshiharu Habu, a professional shogi player.
I usually don't speak while thinking
so I'm not very good at speaking in public like this,
but I'll do my best
to make the most of this opportunity.
Today, I'd like to talk about
unique thinking processes
of shogi players.
The most basic part of the process
is what we call "predictions."
"Predictions" mean to predict how the game develops
or to simulate the next moves.
First of all,
the most basic of all is
what is called, "prediction of next three moves."
Suppose you can see three pieces,
you move one,
then the opponent reacts to the move,
and you again counteract to it.
You have to predict these three moves.
This is not only applicable in shogi,
but also applicable to your daily lives.
I presume you probably exercise
such imagination quite often.
Normally, you're supposed to come up with
two or more options to take
in order to make a decision.
For example, all of you have come to TEDxTokyo today.
The first option starts with "to attend TEDxTokyo."
Then "to be inspired by many different stories."
which leads you "to make use of those for your own ideas
and your daily lives."
This is the first option.
There should be another option, "not to attend TEDxTokyo."
You decide not to attend the event, thus no change in your life
which may result in being frustrated.
Comparing these two options, you might have thought
"I'm going since attending TEDxTokyo sounds a lot more fun."
Even unwittingly, without making notes or anything,
you must have made such a decision
in order to be here today.
When it comes to "the next three moves,"
you may think it should be quite easy,
although I think there are blind spots
in the most unexpected place, which is the second step.
I mean, of course you can make your own decision
regarding your own action, however,
there will be other factors such as the opponent and the situation
which you are supposed to predict.
For example, in a business negotiation,
let's say you want to lower the price of the goods to sell them.
"The next three moves" in this situation will be
one -- lower the price,
two -- the client is pleased,
three -- the deal is made.
So these are the three steps.
As for the second one, "The client is pleased,"
it could possibly be the case
you're imposing your values to make that judgment.
The client may rather like to have
quality control or durability than the lower price,
or the client might value continued relationships more.
Therefore, you need to step in the client's shoes to make the judgment
in order to predict the next moves correctly.
If you make a mistake at the second step,
it becomes what is called "a self-centred prediction,"
and it becomes quite pointless however many moves you predict further.
Making a prediction
can be compared to branches of a tree that are diverting from the trunk.
Of course, the numbers of possible options are
exponentially so huge,
one cannot decide by purely considering the options.
On which occasion, what I use is "a bird's-eye analysis,"
or "to take a panoramic view."
As if you were a bird in the air, looking down at the ground,
you can make a guess that it could be somewhere around here,
or it should be just about here,
to get a ballpark idea.
You could also reflect upon your experience
and empirically decide what is most likely.
You might think,
"Since this happened as such so far, I should go that way now,"
or you might know from the current situation
you should follow this direction from now on,
adhering to this principle, and tactics, and so on.
Once you know,
you won't waste your move not having to think about it further.
For example, in order to come to this event space,
once you spread the map and know it is near Shibuya,
then you do not have to take a detour,
or stopping at somewhere.
Similarly, you can grasp the general idea,
by taking a panoramic view from a bird's-eye.
This panoramic view from a bird's-eye
is very much a sensorial experience that is very useful,
yet, you cannot completely rely on that for the very same reason.
Let me remind you of the previous example.
So you saw the map and managed to come near Shibuya.
But in order to reach this very room,
you end up walking around and taking a lift, making different actions.
It means it is a solid logic supporting your journey
that led you to this very room, your destination.
And of course, a sensorial experience is so useful
since one can skip several steps of thinking processes.
Thanks to that, and likewise, the final logic to support
your hypothesis of the next three moves should be as important as that.
As well, I think such a sensorial tool
can prove to be very useful
for avoiding other crisis and dwindling of business.
You may find yourself unfamiliar with the expression, "dwindling of business,"
which essentially means a situation where you cannot hope for better or win
whatever length of time and effort you put into it.
So if you can find out by using a bird's-eye panoramic view
that you will get trapped in dwindling of business
if you choose this option on this occasion,
then you should be able to choose other options over this option
even if the risk may be slightly higher.
Therefore, you can link up this sensorial experience
and the logical thinking like pairs of wheels of a car
in order to react against each different situation.
This is very important for me;
to be able to take a decision without hesitation.
Nowadays, there are so much information
that you cannot necessarily choose what you want.
Thus, despite the wealth of the information,
you sometimes have to choose one over everything else.
When you're supposed to choose one, you're likely to regret your decision.
In order to avoid regretting the decision you made
- this seems to be a general tendency -
you tend to be optimistic about
what you did not choose
while you tend to be pessimistic about what has not happened yet,
what awaits you in the future.
For managing a risk or even for avoiding a risk,
this could be important to some extent, however,
you are supposed to remain calm and objective
rather than letting your emotion sweep you away.
What you did not choose in the past,
normally turns out to be an option "better not to choose,"
and as for the future, not all what you fear would happen despite your fear.
Here, the strategy I explained,
logically predicting the next three moves and take a bird's-eye panoramic view,
become quite useful in making a variety of decision-making
you face in your life.
I sincerely hope you have a great day today
and wish you luck for the future.
Thank you very much.
(Applause)