Belarus is not only considered the last dictatorship in Europe but is also the last country in
Europe in which the death penalty still applies.
It is also a place where you can be riding quietly on a plane and suddenly in the middle
of a flight, it turns back so that the FSB, the former Russian KGB - yes, yes, you have
heard correctly - stops entrepreneurs who have not toed the line.
All thanks to Aleksandr Lukashenko himself.
This man has been presiding over the country since 1994. That’s more than 25 years.
It’s quite an achievement for an "independent" candidate who boasts about not having had
any political party behind him since 1992.
And that is because the party is basically... Himself.
Lukashenko's thirst for power seems infinite.
This apprentice and heir to the worst political control mechanisms of the former Soviet Union,
does not seem to have any intention of leaving.
It has already been announced that he will run for his re-re-re-election in 2020 after
overwhelming success in the 2019 legislative elections.
To give you an idea of his dominance, of the 110 members of the Belarusian House of Representatives,
the opposition won zero seats.
Yes, that’s correct. Zero seats. Why bother with keeping up appearances?
The result was: 89 independent supporters of Lukashenko and 21 deputies divided between
parties that, - surprise, surprise! - also supported Lukashenko.
Come on, he won in the purest Kim Jong Un style.
Due to events like this and also, of course, because of repression, political persecution,
abductions, violations of freedom of expression and human rights, there can be no doubt that
Belarus is a dictatorship with all the consequences.
A dictatorship that has very strong historical ties to Russia.
And we’re not only talking about the similarities between the regime's political and modus operandi,
but also a common cultural, historical and even linguistic heritage.
That's why today, in this video, we're going to talk about what has been a curious international
romance, and which is now going through a bit of a rough patch.
Belarus and Russia are like a couple, eternally engaged and on the verge of getting married,
but who seem to be regretting it all at the last minute.
Want to know more about this crazy story? I bet you do.
Let’s go.
(BELARUS – STUCK BETWEEN TWO OPPOSING SIDES)
Friends, if there's one thing that's clear in Belarus, it's that its geopolitical situation
is extremely complicated.
We are talking about a country wedged between two powerful blocs hostile to each other:
The European Union and Russia.
On the one hand, Russia, mother Russia, has been the country's livelihood since its independence
from the Soviet Union. Basically on the international scene, Lukashenko's Belarus has effectively
functioned as a satellite state of Russia.
On the other hand, the European Union has for many years been very harsh and critical
of the regime for its repression and lack of freedom and democracy.
An example of this repression would be the disappearances in 1999 and 2000 of two opposition
politicians, an entrepreneur and a journalist, which caused the EU to impose economic sanctions
and trade restrictions on Belarus.
And no, don't think for a second that Lukashenko is a guy who likes to disguise his authoritarian
branch.
Quite the opposite. In fact, he even likes to make jokes about it, like this one from
a 2012 interview for Reuters.
(AUDIO: “I am the last dictator in Europe. In fact, there is no other one around the
world. [...] You came here and you have seen a live dictator. Where else could you see
one? - Aleksandr Lukashenko)
Come on, he likes being a dictator even more than Mourinho likes watching Guardiola’s
team lose.
However, despite Lukashenko's strong character, the truth is that in the last four years there
has been some improvement in relations between Belarus and the European Union.
We are talking about an improvement which, for example, led to the European Union's withdrawal
of sanctions against three companies and 170 senior officials or people close to the regime
in 2016.
OK, it’s true there are other sanctions still in place, such as the embargo on arms
sales, but this move was still significant, a sign that in spite of everything, there
was a chance that things could improve.
In other words, it seems that the European Union has set its policies with Belarus in
what has come to be called Realpolitik, that is, policies based purely and exclusively
on practical interests.
Is Belarus a dictatorship? Yes, that's crystal clear, but,.... the EU getting along with
this country - is a bit like them sticking a finger in Vladimir Putin's eye.
If there is one thing the European Union is looking for in this situation, it is to try
to weaken Putin's power and influence. And for the government of Vladimir Putin, Belarus
is a key country. His last strong ally.
Something like the favourite son who is protected no matter what, but who occasionally needs
some favours.
That's why Putin's playing coy, but the European Union's rapprochement with Belarus, is becoming
quite a headache for him.
In other words, in the European Union's relationship with Belarus, the least important thing is
Belarus.
The fact is that over the last decade, trade with the European Union has taken off again
and, more importantly, it should be noted that Belarus has started to receive EU funds.
Specifically,110 million euros from the well-known European Neighbourhood Instrument between
2014 and 2018.
That is miniscule compared to what Russia has given Belarus over the years, but it shows
a clear improvement in relations between Minsk and Brussels.
After all, there are not many reasons you’d go around giving away tens and tens of millions
of euros, are there?
Yes, ok, I know we're talking about the European Union... But still.
This brings us to a key question:
How exactly are relations between Russia and Belarus nowadays?
Remember these are two countries that have traditionally been close like siblings. Just
a few years after the fall of the Soviet Union they even studied their political integration.
Yes, that’s right.
Progressive integration. That's what Lukashenko himself and then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin
agreed on in 1999. That year they created a supranational structure intended to gradually
integrate the two states. A structure that was dubbed: The Union State.
Now, I'm sure many of you would be a little surprised to hear that someone like Lukashenko,
a guy with such a great ambition for power, was willing to integrate with Russia, which
let’s be very clear, would have kept all the power in Moscow.
So what was it that led Lukashenko to compromise and devise a plan to integrate with Boris
Yeltsin? Did he honestly believe the Russians were going to give him power?
Friends, in order to understand Lukashenko, Russia, and how this whole relationship has
recently switched gear, let us explain what this whole Union State thing was all about.
A project so crazy that it was born - if at any time it really was born - to fail.
Look at this!
(THE UNION STATE, THE ABSORPTION THAT NEVER HAPPENED)
Comrades of VisualPolitik, as we just told you a moment ago, this Union State thing was
something that was agreed on in 1999 between Lukashenko and Yeltsin.
At the time, Yeltsin was a far cry from Putin and Lukashenko was just learning the ropes
of being the dictator that he is today.
But what were Yeltsin and Lukashenko’s real intentions when the original agreement was
made?
Well, you see, Russia basically wanted to kick NATO in the shins, because at that time,
NATO had just expanded to include Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary.
This expansion allowed the North Atlantic Treaty forces to be practically at the Russian
border.
Moscow needed an out-of-the-box counterattack. They had to play their cards to slow NATO's
advance and prove that they were still a superpower.
And the counterattack began with their faithful ally, their blood and ideological brother,
Belarus.
In this way, the union that was raised created a supranational entity in which both countries
would gradually integrate into a kind of political and economic bloc.
Yes, theoretically both countries would retain their political and territorial sovereignty,
but decisions about economic policy as well as foreign policy and defence would be taken
by this new body. In practice, a really strong integration was proposed.
And not only that, Russia’s vision for this union went much further and included the creation
of a common currency, a single parliament, a Constitution, their own courts, etc., etc.
That is, create a Russian mega-block along the lines of the former Soviet Union.
However, the blood brothers soon got cold feet.
The pact sounded great, but how exactly would power be shared? How was this agreement in
Belarus' best interest? Wasn't there the obvious risk of being taken over by their huge neighbour?
Well, even though it seems hard to believe, it appears that in the first instance, Lukashenko,
blind with ambition, thought that the union could see himself thrust into the role of
leader of the new mega block and thus he would direct not only the destiny of Belarus, but
also of Russia itself.
That is, although it seems absurd, the move Lukashenko had in mind was something like
a kind of takeover where the little fish eats the big one.
Dreams are free you know.
The problem today is that Putin is not Yeltsin and today's Russia doesn't much resemble the
Russia in freefall of the late 1990s either.
In other words, the Belarusian tyrant was speaking out of his backside.
Lukashenko never managed to achieve his goals and over the years as Vladimir Putin consolidated
his power even further, Belarus became an increasingly isolated economy in Europe and
was totally dependent on Russia.
To such an extent that the so-called Union State came to mean only two things to the
country: annexation or blackmail.
Let me explain. For the past 20 years, Russia has used oil and natural gas sales at below-market
prices to consolidate its influence in Minsk.
The cost to Russia of this policy has been high, some calculations, such as those of
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, point to more than $2 billion.
And let’s see how this plays out. During this time, Lukashenko has been doing business
year after year. The Belarusian economy has specialized in oil processing, refineries,
and fuel exports.
In this way, while negotiations to secure the Union State were cooling down, Lukashenko
continued to take advantage of existing agreements.
And of course, as you can imagine, there came a point where Russia got tired of waiting
without getting anything in return. You could say that Vladimir Putin felt that the Belarusians
were teasing him.
And as you all know. You don't fool around with Putin.
In 2019, Moscow began to put conditions on oil contracts in order to advance the Union
State. Basically, they threatened to remove Russian oil unless Belarus started agreeing
to implement the required steps to integration.
Let's say Putin said something like: Be careful, Luka, behave yourself or I'll take your dinosaur
juice away... Then you’ll be sorry.
(AUDIO: Russia hints at Belarus joining it in a unified state in exchange for oil deal:
Lukashenko - Reuters)
And friends, right here is when the crisis broke out, a real dog-fight between the two
leaders.
Look at this.
(THE BIG ABOUT-FACE: TREASON OR A FIGHT TO SURVIVE?)
Right up until late 2019, Lukashenko could be heard saying things like this over and
over again:
(AUDIO: “The two of us could unite tomorrow, no problem.”)
However, by early 2020, the rhetoric had changed quite a bit. Take a look.
(AUDIO: "We have our own country, we're sovereign and independent. [...] And we can't be a part
of some other country. [...] I can't betray you and dissolve Belarus, even into brotherly
Russia. [...] Even if I agree to that, Belarusians would eat me alive within a year. [...] It's
honorable to be the first [president of Belarus], but I sure don't want to be the last." - Aleksandr
Lukashenko)
It is as if suddenly a nationalist and sovereignist spirit had been awakened in Lukashenko.
Now, is he really serious or is it simply strategic pressure to get more and more concessions
out of Moscow, knowing that Putin perhaps needs Belarus to keep himself in the driver’s
seat?
Wait a minute, why would Putin need his neighbour to maintain his own power?
Well the Russian president is currently developing several schemes to stay in power beyond 2024,
and one such plan involves Belarus.
The scheme would be as follows.
If Russia and Belarus end up creating a new state, with a new body of government different
from that of the current Russian Federation, but which encompasses both countries, Putin
could become president of that new state as he would be subject to a new Constitution,
with new conditions and with a new status of power.
In other words, Putin would be president again, but not of the Russian Federation, but of
the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
Either way, it seems the dispute is getting serious.
In January 2020, oil exports from Russia to Belarus plummeted by 75% of what had been
forecast. Russia reduced deliveries by one and a half million tons of crude oil.
And as we mentioned earlier, in the Belarusian economy, the petrochemical industry is very
important. So this has forced Lukashenko to choose between two paths:
Either give in to Moscow, or try to find other friends to supply the country with all the
fuel they need to prevent the country from falling apart.
And that's when some new friends showed up. Listen up.
(AUDIO: Belarus starts importing oil from Norway after Russian halt - Business Insider)
But it's not just about Norway. Minsk has suddenly found another saviour. A country
that has not mediated diplomatically with Belarus for ten years and now suddenly wants
to restore diplomatic relations back to 100%. Any ideas?
Check this out.
(AUDIO: Pompeo visits Belarus as Minsk's ties with Moscow fray - Reuters)
(AUDIO: “The United States wants to help Belarus build its own sovereign country. Our
energy producers stand ready to deliver 100% of the oil you need at competitive prices.
Your nation should not be forced to be dependent on any one partner for your prosperity or
for your security.” - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State of the United States of America)
Don't tell me it's not a clever move.
However, despite getting new suppliers, Belarus is now suffering from a pressing oil shortage
that has already led to the suspension of petrochemical exports.
Exports that the country desperately needs in order to get foreign currency, namely dollars.
And that's what has led the Belarusian dictator to play one of his last cards: threatening
to steal some of his crude oil exports from Russia, taking advantage of the fact that
Russian oil exports to Europe cross Belarusian territory.
(AUDIO: Belarus threatens to siphon off Russian oil intended for Europe - Al Jazeera)
And of course, the last card would be to actually steal it.
Either way, as you can see, relations between Putin and Lukashenko are volatile. I wouldn’t
be surprised if they were on the verge of blocking each other on WhatsApp.
The Belarusian president is beginning to sidle up to the West to prevent its isolation from
leading to a dreaded Crimean-style Russian invasion, which could leave them completely
alone in the world and with no one to defend them.
Well, with no one to defend him and his comfy reclining chair.
And I’m sure you can imagine that the threat to steal Russian oil is not sitting well in
Moscow. Can you imagine Putin's face if his oil started disappearing from the pipelines?
Hi Vladi? Yes, Luka, What’s up? It can't be true! What do you mean, the oil hasn't
arrived? Well, mate, we haven't seen anything here, huh? Look, don't worry… if I see something,
I'll let you know…
Anyway, these are the things which mark the latest battle on the crazy stage of Eastern
Europe. At VisualPolitik we will be watching how events unfold.
In the meantime, what do you think of all this? Has Russia earned the right to control
its neighbour as a payback for all the oil that it has supplied at mates rates? Will
the Russian president get away with annexing the neighbouring country? Is Lukashenko really
willing to align with the west?
Leave your answer in the comments.
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And as always, I’ll see you in the next video.