Welcome to the Bureau's long-range forecast for April to June twenty-twenty-three.
Rainfall is likely to be below average across most areas over the coming
months. But it's still the northern wet season, so tropical storms may continue.
Let's look at recent conditions. While rainfall for March has
been below average in some areas, like parts of northern and inland Australia.
Others have experienced flooding after intense rain.
A tropical low in early March brought heavy rainfall to parts of the Northern Territory
with widespread flooding affecting communities around the Victoria River.
Some sites in the Territory set new March rainfall records.
The same tropical low brought heavy rainfall to north-western Queensland.
More than half a metre of rain in 2 days led to record-high flood
levels around Burketown in the Gulf country. Parts of New South Wales and Western Australia
have also had heavy rain from tropical storms. Overall March has been warmer than usual. Large
areas have had well above average temperatures for this time of year.
Some new record-high daily March temperatures were set at some sites,
including Mildura, Cobar and Wagga Wagga. While cloudy conditions helped to
keep temperatures down in parts of the Northern Territory and western Queensland.
Soils are much wetter than usual in the north, especially in areas with recent high rainfall.
While, large areas across the south are drying, after warm
conditions and generally below average rainfall. Most water storages are still more than 90% full
and remain higher than at this time last year. The notable exceptions are western Tasmania and
the south-west coast of Western Australia which are both down to around 50% capacity.
The long-range forecast for the coming 3 months shows …
It's likely to be drier than normal for almost all of Australia.
Large areas have an increased chance of unusually low rainfall.
While lower than usual streamflows are likely in parts of the east and west,
the forecast is for higher than usual streamflows in the north and much of the south-east.
The northern wet season continues through April and with high water storages and full rivers, the
risk of flooding remains in the north and east. There's still a risk of tropical cyclones and
storms in the north, and those systems may also bring storms further south.
In the coming months, most areas are likely to have warmer days than usual.
Large areas have at least double the normal chance of unusually warm
temperatures for this time of year, especially in Western Australia.
Bushfires are still a risk during autumn, with the forecast for warm and dry conditions.
Above normal fire potential continues for parts of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
So what's likely to influence our climate over the coming months?
Conditions in the Pacific Ocean are currently neutral, neither El Niño nor La Niña.
We have issued an El Niño WATCH as there are some signs El Niño may form later in the year.
During El Niño, winter and spring is often drier than usual in eastern Australia.
When there are no strong climate drivers like La Niña, rainfall in southern Australia has
been lower than average in the cool season months over recent decades
So, in summary, this April to June we're likely to see:
below average rainfall in most areas warmer days
above normal bushfire potential for some areas and a continued chance of tropical cyclones,
storms and flooding. You can find the latest long-range forecasts
and warnings on the Bureau's website. Bye for now.